"We are now living the unthinkable because we couldn’t discuss the unsayable in real time.".
The following is from the New York times.
"The most extensive travel restrictions to stop an outbreak in human history haven’t been enough. We analyzed the movements of hundreds of millions of people to show why.
Many of the first known cases clustered around a seafood market in Wuhan, China, a city of 11 million and a transportation hub. Four cases grew to dozens by the end of December. Doctors knew only that the sick people had viral pneumonia that did not respond to the usual treatments.
The true size of the outbreak was much larger even then — an invisible network of nearly 1,000 cases, or perhaps several times more. Estimates from Trevor Bedford, University of Washington, and Lauren Gardner, Johns Hopkins University
With each patient infecting two or three others on average, even a perfect response may not have contained the spread.But Chinese officials did not alert the public to the risks in December. It wasn’t until Dec. 31 that they alerted the World Health Organization and released a statement — and a reassurance.“The disease is preventable and controllable,” the government said.The timing of the outbreak could not have been worse. Hundreds of millions of people were about to travel back to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year.
Here’s how people moved around on Jan. 1, according to a Times analysis of data published by Baidu and major telecoms, which tracked the movements of millions of cell phones - At least 175,000 people left Wuhan just on that day, we found. The departures from Wuhan accelerated over the next three weeks. About 7 million people left in January, before travel was restricted.
By the time Chinese officials acknowledged the risk of human-to-human transmission on Jan. 21, local outbreaks were already seeded in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities.Two days later, the authorities locked down Wuhan, and many cities followed in the next few weeks. Travel across China nearly stopped.As the outbreak moved across China in early January, international travel continued as normal. Over 900 people went to New York every month on average, based on recent trends...over 2,200 to Sydney...and over 15,000 people went to Bangkok, the most popular destination. That’s where the first known overseas case appeared in mid-January, a 61-year-old woman who traveled from Wuhan to Bangkok despite having a fever, headache and a sore throat.
January 23rd Other early cases turned up in Tokyo, Singapore, Seoul and Hong Kong. The U.S. confirmed its first case near Seattle. About 85 percent of infected travelers went undetected, researchers believe. But they were still contagious.
It was only at the end of January that Wuhan was placed under a lockdown and airlines started canceling flights. By Jan. 31, when the United States announced it would shut down entry from China for non-Americans, travel out of Wuhan had basically stopped.
It was too late. Outbreaks were already growing in over 30 cities across 26 countries, most seeded by travelers from Wuhan.
By March 1, thousands of cases were reported in Italy, Iran and South Korea. China was no longer the main driver of the outbreak.
Now insert the WHO, who on the 14th repeated the statement that there was no evidence of person to person transmission, and their recommendation on January 29th advising against travel restrictions.
I blame Trump.
@huckleberryhound saidTrump isn't responsible for a worldwide pandemic, but he is responsible for his slow and inadequate response to it (which continues).
"We are now living the unthinkable because we couldn’t discuss the unsayable in real time.".
The following is from the New York times.
"The most extensive travel restrictions to stop an outbreak in human history haven’t been enough. We analyzed the movements of hundreds of millions of people to show why.
Many of the first known cases clustered around a seafo ...[text shortened]... , and their recommendation on January 29th advising against travel restrictions.
I blame Trump.
@no1marauder saidNot American, so it's not my bailiwick. What do you think he should have done, be doing?
Trump isn't responsible for a worldwide pandemic, but he is responsible for his slow and inadequate response to it (which continues).
@huckleberryhound saidSee my posts here for starters: https://www.redhotpawn.com/forum/debates/distribution-of-ppe.184507
Not American, so it's not my bailiwick. What do you think he should have done, be doing?
@no1marauder saidI'd rather not. Most threads are moronic argument of either orange man bad, or leftist leftist snowflake. Do you have the cliff notes?
See my posts here for starters: https://www.redhotpawn.com/forum/debates/distribution-of-ppe.184507
@huckleberryhound saidNot cutting the Directorate of Global Health Security and Biodefence - popularly known as the Pandemic Response Team - in 2018 might have been a good start. It was set up by Obama in 2014 in response to the then Ebola crisis. He said at the time: "Some of the people we cut, they haven’t been used for many, many years. ... And rather than spending the money - and I’m a business person - I don’t like having thousands of people around when you don’t need them."
Not American, so it's not my bailiwick. What do you think he should have done, be doing?
@huckleberryhound saidWhat if orange man actually is bad?
I'd rather not. Most threads are moronic argument of either orange man bad, or leftist leftist snowflake. Do you have the cliff notes?
@deepthought saidThat does seem unfortunate. What do you think they could've done differently?
Not cutting the Directorate of Global Health Security and Biodefence - popularly known as the Pandemic Response Team - in 2018 might have been a good start. It was set up by Obama in 2014 in response to the then Ebola crisis. He said at the time: "Some of the people we cut, they haven’t been used for many, many years. ... And rather than spending the money - and I’m a business person - I don’t like having thousands of people around when you don’t need them."
(Note to the troll down thumbing all my posts regardless of content...hi 🙂 )
@kazetnagorra saidBad or not...he's funny. The world is having a chuckle. His deep state department quip was off the hook lol
What if orange man actually is bad?
@huckleberryhound saidThousands of people dying because of incompetence.
Bad or not...he's funny. The world is having a chuckle. His deep state department quip was off the hook lol
Hilarious!
@kazetnagorra saidMore people have died in Italy than the numbers reported from China...in short, it ain't all about you.
Thousands of people dying because of incompetence.
Hilarious!
@huckleberryhound saidIt's three consecutive posts on the first page of that thread.
I'd rather not. Most threads are moronic argument of either orange man bad, or leftist leftist snowflake. Do you have the cliff notes?
@no1marauder saidOf course trump is responsible.
Trump isn't responsible for a worldwide pandemic, but he is responsible for his slow and inadequate response to it (which continues).
His megalomaniacal stupidity suggests that somewhere, somehow, he is responsible.
@huckleberryhound saidIf there is one person that has the ear of the entire planet when he/she speaks, it is the President the United States.
Not American, so it's not my bailiwick. What do you think he should have done, be doing?
While the difference between a good response and a bad response is significant, the best response would still result in a significant death toll.
That aside, the young people returning from spring break in Clearwater and elsewhere represent a powder keg waiting to go off throughout the US.
Do you think that instead of crying Dem hoax, saying the the virus threat will disappear on it's own, or telling everyone that he has a hunch and he's a pretty smart guy, he had exercised more caution in his message to the American citizens, that more people may have cancelled their spring break plans ?
The key word here is mitigation.
The pandemic is here.
The pandemic will kill many.
The President will be judged by how he responded early in the crisis.
Everyone hopes that the response now, better late than never, helps.
Trump has a good team behind him.
Too bad they spent too much time explaining away his tantrums in front of a global audience.
Even Pence looked good next to him.
The campaign rallies, if they happen, won't be the same this time around.
No chants of "build that wall", "lock her up" or "make America great again".
Much of Trump's base, over 60, probably won't be there.
They'll be at home sick.
And that last slogan may just become the task of Trump's opponent.
@mghrn55 saidwell, you better Hope Ruth Badar Ginsberg doesn't feel a tickle in her throat, coz she isn't exactly "spritely" if you know what i mean?
If there is one person that has the ear of the entire planet when he/she speaks, it is the President the United States.
While the difference between a good response and a bad response is significant, the best response would still result in a significant death toll.
That aside, the young people returning from spring break in Clearwater and elsewhere represent a powder ke ...[text shortened]... ere.
They'll be at home sick.
And that last slogan may just become the task of Trump's opponent.