Will Brexit help Trump?

I think it will, and here's why.

I think that Brexit and Trump both feed on the "screw the elitist out of touch status quo politicians" impulse (not to mention the darker xenophobic impulses that both feed on a bit). While I'm not saying Brexit will change too many minds in the US, it makes people feeling anti-establishment feel more mainstream or, even, dare I say, respectable. People who might otherwise be angry at the "system" but were ashamed to support a clown like Trump may be emboldened by the feeling that "they're sticking it to their Ivory tower elitists. Why shouldn't we?"

Of course, there's also the chance that is the the first domino in the collapse or shrinkage of the EU. The more chaos that happens in the western world between now and November, the better it is for Trump.

I still don't think he'll win, but I think he had a big day yesterday (even if he did spend the first 12 minutes of his press conference today bragging about his new golf course).

Sure, they voted to leave but will they leave?

I'm reminded of the credit crisis in the US. No one wanted to bail out the corrupt elitists who caused it but as people saw their savings disappear daily and the economy gradually go into the tank a gun was put to their head. I wonder if the same strategy will be employed to coerce those in England to return to the EU.

Originally posted by whodey
Sure, they voted to leave but will they leave?

I'm reminded of the credit crisis in the US. No one wanted to bail out the corrupt elitists who caused it but as people saw their savings disappear daily and the economy gradually go into the tank a gun was put to their head. I wonder if the same strategy will be employed to coerce those in England to return to the EU.

I don't think Cameron would announce his resignation if he intended to ignore the results of the referendum.

Trump is already blaming Obama for Brexit. It sounds like Frexit is next. Maybe also a Grexit. EU tumbling down.

Originally posted by sh76
I think it will, and here's why.

I think that Brexit and Trump both feed on the "screw the elitist out of touch status quo politicians" impulse (not to mention the darker xenophobic impulses that both feed on a bit). While I'm not saying Brexit will change too many minds in the US, it makes people feeling anti-establishment feel more mainstream or, even, dar ...[text shortened]... id spend the first 12 minutes of his press conference today bragging about his new golf course).

I think the "screw the elitist out of touch status quo politicians" impulse is more accurately described as a rise in nationalism around the world. It is the attempt of citizens within nation-states to claw back control of those nation-states from multinational organizations and agreements. It is a reassertion of the core value of liberal democracy, that the protection of human rights is best achieved through national self-determination via citizens deciding what is in the national interest, not some unaccountable, far removed elite.

So rather than saying that Brexit has helped Trump, I would say that Trump's unlikely success is, like Brexit, just another symptom of this same nationalist phenomenon. The phenomenon is a great thing, though unfortunately probably wasted on an idiot like Trump.

Of course, the people who love the idea of an elite class of unaccountable bureaucrats running rough shod over the will of the ignorant masses don't like this very much, and as you have already hinted at above, will be quick to level the charge of dark racism. That lazy, tiresome charge is automatically ignored.

Originally posted by Sleepyguy
I think the "screw the elitist out of touch status quo politicians" impulse is more accurately described as a rise in nationalism around the world. It is the attempt of citizens within nation-states to claw back control of those nation-states from multinational organizations and agreements. It is a reassertion of the core value of liberal democracy, that t ...[text shortened]... e quick to level the charge of dark racism. That lazy, tiresome charge is automatically ignored.

People are fighting collectivists around the world, whose engine is corporatism

Originally posted by sonhouse
Trump is already blaming Obama for Brexit. It sounds like Frexit is next. Maybe also a Grexit. EU tumbling down.

In what scenario do you imagine a "Frexit"?

Originally posted by sh76
I think it will, and here's why.

I think that Brexit and Trump both feed on the "screw the elitist out of touch status quo politicians" impulse (not to mention the darker xenophobic impulses that both feed on a bit). While I'm not saying Brexit will change too many minds in the US, it makes people feeling anti-establishment feel more mainstream or, even, dar ...[text shortened]... id spend the first 12 minutes of his press conference today bragging about his new golf course).

A wit has already observed that with this referendum the English have thrown away their right to call Americans dumb.

In other news, Scots protestors have raised a Mexican flag close to Trump's Aberdeenshire golf course.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/21/trump-golf-course-scotland-mexican-flag

I think it is quite possible it will help Trump. Those who want to believe him about anything he says will believe him based upon their feelings not their thinking - truth doesn't really matter.
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/america-guns-and-violence-remembering-beaumont-hamel-the-backfire-effect-1.3637113/does-the-backfire-effect-explain-donald-trump-s-startling-success-1.3637123

Originally posted by sh76
I think it will, and here's why.

I think that Brexit and Trump both feed on the "screw the elitist out of touch status quo politicians" impulse (not to mention the darker xenophobic impulses that both feed on a bit). While I'm not saying Brexit will change too many minds in the US, it makes people feeling anti-establishment feel more mainstream or, even, dar ...[text shortened]... id spend the first 12 minutes of his press conference today bragging about his new golf course).

Trump, someone who has spent his entire life being part of and pandering to other members of the economic and political elite, as an "anti-establishment" candidate is so ludicrous that only the majority of Republicans could believe it.

Brexit doesn't change the fact that a very substantial majority of independent voters strongly disapprove of Trump. Unless that fact changes dramatically, he's headed for a November beatdown or a September withdrawal.

Funny how Trump hasn't been talking about how an illegal immigrant tried to assassinate him recently:

YouTube : Young Turks Trump Assassinati...

YouTube : Young Turks Part 2

Originally posted by finnegan
A wit has already observed that with this referendum the English have thrown away their right to call Americans dumb.

It needs to be noted in that vein, that unlike the Brexit vote, we haven't actually elected Trump to anything yet, and it appears unlikely that we ever will.

Originally posted by sh76
It needs to be noted in that vein, that unlike the Brexit vote, we haven't actually elected Trump to anything yet, and it appears unlikely that we ever will.

And instead we're going to elect a lying, corrupt, criminal. We should really pat ourselves on the back eh?

What a disaster American politics is.

Originally posted by sh76
It needs to be noted in that vein, that unlike the Brexit vote, we haven't actually elected Trump to anything yet, and it appears unlikely that we ever will.

To be strictly fair, The Republicans have voted for Trump as their candidate, so he has been elected to "anything yet," though that election might be overturned at the last minute, while the British have only made their referendum advisory, parliament remains sovereign, and it too could be overturned late in the day. The contest for dumb, dumber and dumbest is not yet decided but it would until this week have been an easier contest for the Brits.

Originally posted by finnegan
To be strictly fair, The Republicans have voted for Trump as their candidate, so he has been elected to "anything yet," though that election might be overturned at the last minute, while the British have only made their referendum advisory, parliament remains sovereign, and it too could be overturned late in the day. The contest for dumb, dumber and dumbest is not yet decided but it would until this week have been an easier contest for the Brits.

A nomination is not the same thing as an election. And even of the subset of registered republicans, only a small minority voted for Trump.