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Originally posted by rhbIt's always going to be pretty standard, since odds are calculated on the amount staked on each possible winner.
You are generally looking at starting with a 3/1 favourite (top striker to score first) in a 20 horse race.
I'm sure Ravello could say if this is good or not, I think it's about standard.
i.e. the bookie (almost) always wins.
Originally posted by PalynkaIf you get the result (i.e. Home Win) but not the exact score you get 1 point
How does the challenge work? Does it have odds, like regular bets, or do you simply need to get the maximum correct scorelines?
If you get the scoreline correct you get an additional 2 points (total 3).
In the season there are 5 jokers you can play, which earn you double points for that game should you score any (e.g. 2 for result, 6 for scoreline).
Originally posted by rhbAye. I suppose it's a case of 'seeing' which odds offered are the best in comparison and not getting carried away and ruled by your heart. Easier said than done.
Interestingly, or maybe not, I played the BBC challenge Lawro - scoreling prediciotn game - in the 2004/5 season, finishing 7th overall (100000+ players) by predicting only the following:
1-0 home win in all games
except if Chelsea, Man U or Arsenal were the away team, and the home team wasn't one of those.
(If I had used Everton as a 4th on that exceptio ...[text shortened]... reline bets aren't bad either (or weren't before this world cup ball!) as most games have
There are 'systems' and ways of outsmarting theb ookmaker when they drop a loose one, but to adhere to that, and not get carried away,
tends to elude the grand majority of people that frequent bookies.
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Originally posted by rhbBut it's still a bit different since your payoff doesn't change if you bet on a less likely result, so it's a case of estimating the most likely outcome. With bets is a bit less straightforward.
If you get the result (i.e. Home Win) but not the exact score you get 1 point
If you get the scoreline correct you get an additional 2 points (total 3).
In the season there are 5 jokers you can play, which earn you double points for that game should you score any (e.g. 2 for result, 6 for scoreline).
(Don't get me wrong, you got a brilliant result with a very cunning technique. I'm sure I wouldn't have done so well)
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Originally posted by PalynkaAgreed, I wouldn't have done as well relatively on the bets, but I'd have finished with more than I started I'm sure (it'd be a big job to go back and prove that!) - just 'cos there were many 1-0 home wins that seaons (plus Arsenal, Chelsea and Man U seemed to win 1-0 away alot against the smaller teams).
But it's still a bit different since your payoff doesn't change if you bet on a less likely result, so it's a case of estimating the most likely outcome. With bets is a bit less straightforward.
(Don't get me wrong, you got a brilliant result with a very cunning technique. I'm sure I wouldn't have done so well)
Edit: BTW The player who won was called 'Juan Nil' so I think he played a similar strategy... 🙂
Originally posted by dottewellBut since already made bets don't change odds, I'm pretty sure they also try to anticipate staked ammounts.
It's always going to be pretty standard, since odds are calculated on the amount staked on each possible winner.
i.e. the bookie (almost) always wins.
For example, Klose scoring two goals would make them change the odds for top scorer before a lot of people bet on him or they would be exposing themselves to lose.
Originally posted by PalynkaThat's true, they do anticipate. They also have to set initial odds. But they will change rapidly to fit the market.
But since already made bets don't change odds, I'm pretty sure they also try to anticipate staked ammounts.
For example, Klose scoring two goals would make them change the odds for top scorer before a lot of people bet on him or they would be exposing themselves to lose.
Explain this:
Scorecast now for Draw 0-0 is 3-1
In the next team to score and last team to score no goalscorer is 7-2 (I took 5-1 just before half time, obviously some more money going that way too).
Who would take the scorecast when you can take no goalscorer at better odds?
http://www.ukbetting.com/ukb?action=GoEv&ev_id=480745&Betting=In%20Running%20-%20England%20v%20Trinidad%20&%20Tobago
Note: Odds are live so may change after I post this...