24 Dec 08
Originally posted by MarinkatombCool stuff!
Just found this fascinating web page on stumble upon...
http://bookoutlines.pbwiki.com/Predictably-Irrational
There's some really interesting experiments in here. Highly recommend a read. 🙂
(Although, I have to say that I've always preferred Dunkin Donuts coffee to Starbucks.)
24 Dec 08
Originally posted by Silent PawnThanks Neo
Very insteresting read, I remember discussing similar topics in pyschology. However, its this irrational behavior that seperates us from machines.
It is a very interesting material though. I found psych class boring, but the experiments are always a fascinating insight into our complex yet feeble minds. (I should write those book reviews that they put on the covers 🙂 )
24 Dec 08
1 edit
Originally posted by MarinkatombGreat stuff - priming is highly effective and accountability is clearly important in maintaining integrity; I particularly enjoyed the section on norms. 🙂
http://bookoutlines.pbwiki.com/Predictably-Irrational
There's some really interesting experiments in here. Highly recommend a read. 🙂
A problem pertaining to the effect of keeping doors open:
Suppose you're on a game show and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The car and the goats were placed randomly behind the doors before the show. The rules of the game show are as follows: After you have chosen a door, the door remains closed for the time being. The game show host, Monty Hall, who knows what is behind the doors, now has to open one of the two remaining doors, and the door he opens must have a goat behind it. If both remaining doors have goats behind them, he chooses one randomly. After Monty Hall opens a door with a goat, he will ask you to decide whether you want to stay with your first choice or to switch to the last remaining door. Imagine that you chose Door 1 and the host opens Door 3, which has a goat. He then asks you "Do you want to switch to Door Number 2?" Is it to your advantage to change your choice? (Krauss and Wang 2003:10)
Hint [this hint may or may not help based on your interpretation of my hint]: To obtain the solution, understand that the host acts according to two possibilities and solve for the probability that each of these possibilities occur.
24 Dec 08
Originally posted by YugaIt is always to your advantage to switch.
Great stuff - priming is highly effective and accountability is clearly important in maintaining integrity; I particularly enjoyed the section on norms. 🙂
A problem pertaining to the effect of keeping doors open:
Suppose you're on a game show and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The car and the ...[text shortened]... g to two possibilities and solve for the probability that each of these possibilities occur.
If you switch, you have a 2 out of 3 chance to get the car.
If you do not switch, you have a 2 out of 3 chance to get the goat.
(The hint helps, but it could also be potentially confusing.)
24 Dec 08
Originally posted by Marinkatombfascinating, I'll be ordering that book after Christmas. I love the studies of human behavior etc...
Just found this fascinating web page on stumble upon...
http://bookoutlines.pbwiki.com/Predictably-Irrational
There's some really interesting experiments in here. Highly recommend a read. 🙂
24 Dec 08
Originally posted by SuzianneI think people assumed that the rewards for each room would change at some point, that's why they kept switching. They thought the testers were trying to catch them out... 😉
It is always to your advantage to switch.
If you switch, you have a 2 out of 3 chance to get the car.
If you do not switch, you have a 2 out of 3 chance to get the goat.
(The hint helps, but it could also be potentially confusing.)
24 Dec 08
Originally posted by MarinkatombI think relationships are like that as well. Too often people are unwilling to let go of unhealthy relationships because they think something will change, or are afraid of letting go and losing their options.
I think people assumed that the rewards for each room would change at some point, that's why they kept switching. They thought the testers were trying to catch them out... 😉
24 Dec 08
Originally posted by SuzianneVery good. 🙂
It is always to your advantage to switch.
If you switch, you have a 2 out of 3 chance to get the car.
If you do not switch, you have a 2 out of 3 chance to get the goat.
(The hint helps, but it could also be potentially confusing.)
My Solution:
Possibility A: both 2 and 3 are goats; the host picks randomly
Possibility B: either 2 or 3 is a car; the host must pick the goat
Probability that Possibility A is true is 1/3; player switches: loses
Probability that Possibility B is true is 2/3; player switches: wins
So yes, you are correct.
The problem was in the movie 21:
Monty Hall Problem
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem