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Stupid, pointless question but interesting all ...

Stupid, pointless question but interesting all ...

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In any given Chess game, after, say 20 moves, is it possible to estimate the probability that that position has occurred previously in all the games ever played?

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Originally posted by znsho
In any given Chess game, after, say 20 moves, is it possible to estimate the probability that that position has occurred previously in all the games ever played?
Ofcourse

Theres a good chance this position has never occured before...

1. f3 d5 2. Kf2 e5 3. Ke3 Qg5+ 4. f4 Qxf4+ 5. Kd3 a5 6. g3 Bd7 7. Bg2 Na6 8. Na3 Nb4+ 9. Kc3 Kd8 10. d3 Nh6 11. Be3 Be7 12. Qd2 Rg8 13. Rf1 Kc8 14. Nf3 Kb8 15. Ne1 Ra7 16. Nc4 Ka8 17. Nxe5 Ng4 18. Be4 Ra6 19. Kb3 g5 20. c4

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You know what I mean. Anyway, perhaps it has occurred before?