26 Mar '08 10:04>
This is a tough one. I played with the pieces for some time and I am not 100% sure of my analysis (especially the d-part below), but I believe that black wins. Let's try.
The c6-c5 pawn tempo will be a deadly weapon for black if he/she can get into an opposition battle after an exchange of black h-pawn for white's g-pawn. White's only chance is to prevent that from happening. The other threat is when black can create an outside passer with h4. Both threats can only be dealt with if white can make black's h4-move impossible.
a) 1.Kf1, 1.Kg1 or 1.Kh1 do not achieve that, for instance
1.Kf1 h5 and white has a choice of how to die : 2.gxh4 gxh4 -+ or 2.Kg2 hxg3 3.Kxg3 Kf5 and the c-pawn tempo will win
b) 1.Kf2 is a nice try but fails too : 1. ... h5! and now
- 2.gxh loses to the outside passer
- 2.Kg2 hxg3 loses to the opposition game with the c-pawn
- 2.f4?! loses to 2. ... h3! for instance 3.fxg5 Kf5 4.g6 Kxg6 5.g4 Kg5 6.Kg3 h2! 7.Kxh2 Kxg4 and black wins easily
c) 1.Kh2 looks good at first sight but 1. ... h4! forces white to play 2.f4 (otherwise we have a position as a above e.g. 2.Kg2 hxg3 etc...) gxf4 3.gxh4 Kf5 4.Kh3 Ke4! 5.h5 f3 6.h6 Ke3! (not f2?? 7.Kg2 wins) 7.h7 f2 8.h8=Q f1=Q and black will win this endgame, thanks to the fact that his king is better placed, and his queen covers the c4-pawn.
d) 1.Kh3 must be white's best chance. 1. ... Kf5 (1. ... h4? 2.gxh4 and white will win) 2.Kg2 Ke5! (a triangle which white can't match without losing e.g. 3.Kh2? h4 and we have one of the previous lines) 3.Kh3 h4! 4.gxh4 gxh4 5.Kg4 (best try) h3 6.Kxh3 Kf4 7.Kg2 Ke3 8.Kg3 Kd3 9.f4 Kxc3 10.f6 Kb2 11.f7 c2 12.f8=Q c1=Q and black will win (e.g. 13.Qb4+ Ka2 etc...). White's king is too far away from the action in open field.
I hope others will have a shot at this.
The c6-c5 pawn tempo will be a deadly weapon for black if he/she can get into an opposition battle after an exchange of black h-pawn for white's g-pawn. White's only chance is to prevent that from happening. The other threat is when black can create an outside passer with h4. Both threats can only be dealt with if white can make black's h4-move impossible.
a) 1.Kf1, 1.Kg1 or 1.Kh1 do not achieve that, for instance
1.Kf1 h5 and white has a choice of how to die : 2.gxh4 gxh4 -+ or 2.Kg2 hxg3 3.Kxg3 Kf5 and the c-pawn tempo will win
b) 1.Kf2 is a nice try but fails too : 1. ... h5! and now
- 2.gxh loses to the outside passer
- 2.Kg2 hxg3 loses to the opposition game with the c-pawn
- 2.f4?! loses to 2. ... h3! for instance 3.fxg5 Kf5 4.g6 Kxg6 5.g4 Kg5 6.Kg3 h2! 7.Kxh2 Kxg4 and black wins easily
c) 1.Kh2 looks good at first sight but 1. ... h4! forces white to play 2.f4 (otherwise we have a position as a above e.g. 2.Kg2 hxg3 etc...) gxf4 3.gxh4 Kf5 4.Kh3 Ke4! 5.h5 f3 6.h6 Ke3! (not f2?? 7.Kg2 wins) 7.h7 f2 8.h8=Q f1=Q and black will win this endgame, thanks to the fact that his king is better placed, and his queen covers the c4-pawn.
d) 1.Kh3 must be white's best chance. 1. ... Kf5 (1. ... h4? 2.gxh4 and white will win) 2.Kg2 Ke5! (a triangle which white can't match without losing e.g. 3.Kh2? h4 and we have one of the previous lines) 3.Kh3 h4! 4.gxh4 gxh4 5.Kg4 (best try) h3 6.Kxh3 Kf4 7.Kg2 Ke3 8.Kg3 Kd3 9.f4 Kxc3 10.f6 Kb2 11.f7 c2 12.f8=Q c1=Q and black will win (e.g. 13.Qb4+ Ka2 etc...). White's king is too far away from the action in open field.
I hope others will have a shot at this.