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  1. 17 Sep '15 09:31
    Hey All,
    With the following partial game shown at http://www.365chess.com

    Efim Geller vs. Istvan Csom
    Budapest 1973 · Sicilian, Richter-Rauzer, Rauzer attack, 7...a6 (B66) · 1-0

    1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 Nc6 6. Bg5 e6 7. Qd2 a6 8. O-O-O h6 9. Be3 Bd7 10. f4 Qc7 11. Bd3 Nxd4 12. Bxd4 Bc6 13. Rhe1 O-O-O 14. Qf2 Nd7

    According to http://www.365chess.com
    ====================================
    With 11. Kb1 there is 60% winning with White
    With 11. h3 there is 52.9% winning with White
    With 11. Bd3 there is only 25% winning with White

    Is "11. Bd3" a bad move outright rather than just statistically? And is 14. ...Nd7 better than 14. ...Ng4?
  2. 17 Sep '15 11:22
    I'm adding the pgn.

  3. 17 Sep '15 11:27 / 2 edits
    11. Bd3 is a fine move, with a sample size of 24 games, the percentages don't mean as much. After 11. Bd3 b5 you can see the percentages go back in whites favor because there is a transposition of moves, which increases the sample size. That is a good indicator that Bd3 isn't catastrophic. Also Gata Kamsky played 11. Bd3 in that position, so it can't be that bad 🙂

    Nd7 looks much better than Ng4. White is threatening Bb6 winning the exchange, Nd7 defends that. On Ng4 Qg1 the threat is still on, after black defends white could play h3 and the knight goes right back where it started. Black has lost time.
  4. 17 Sep '15 22:50
    Originally posted by KingOnPoint
    Is "11. Bd3" a bad move outright rather than just statistically? And is 14. ...Nd7 better than 14. ...Ng4?
    If it is, Bd3 blocks the barrage of queen and rook, is the only reason I can think of - but I can't see a way to turn that barrage into a win or even an attack, off-hand. Neither can I think why Kb1 or h3 would be all that advantageous.
  5. 17 Sep '15 23:44
    Well perhaps that's because you're not quite as good as Geller. Here is how the game went:
  6. 18 Sep '15 00:03
    Originally posted by Shallow Blue
    ...Neither can I think why Kb1 or h3 would be all that advantageous...
    As White on my move 11, I would be very tempted to play h3 followed by g4. I gain space and it asks my opponent to prove his self-imposed small center and empty 4th rank can win.

    Take it with a grain of salt, I'm just an average woodpusher. 🙁
  7. 20 Sep '15 06:00 / 2 edits
    DataFly and All Others,
    Here is a short game with Bobby Fischer and Efim Geller to ponder what Geller was thinking. Can someone provide a forced win Solution for Fischer?

    Robert Fischer Vs. Efim Geller
    Bled September 10, 1961 - Modern Steinitz Defense 5. O-O (C72) 1-0
    Round 6


  8. Subscriber Paul Leggett
    Chess Librarian
    20 Sep '15 23:55
    Originally posted by KingOnPoint
    Hey All,
    With the following partial game shown at http://www.365chess.com

    Efim Geller vs. Istvan Csom
    Budapest 1973 · Sicilian, Richter-Rauzer, Rauzer attack, 7...a6 (B66) · 1-0

    1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 Nc6 6. Bg5 e6 7. Qd2 a6 8. O-O-O h6 9. Be3 Bd7 10. f4 Qc7 11. Bd3 Nxd4 12. Bxd4 Bc6 13. Rhe1 O-O-O 14. Qf2 Nd7

    Acco ...[text shortened]... " a bad move outright rather than just statistically? And is 14. ...Nd7 better than 14. ...Ng4?
    Simple stats such as this tell you almost nothing, and can even give you a false impression.

    For instance, did you know that out of 100 games with 11. Kb1 white won the first 60, but an innovation by black in the variation turned the tables, and black has won the last 40?

    With 11. Bd3 it's the opposite case. Out of 100 games white had an ill-conceived plan in the first 75, but a subsequent white innovation at move 12 means that white has won the last 25 in a row.

    Also, in the case of 11. Kb1, the white players average ratings were 200 points higher than the black players. With 11. Bd3 the black players were just over 300 points higher than the white players.

    It is a special case with 11. h3. Computer analysis reveals that the move is an almost winning advantage with very accurate play, but the ending is very hard, and in practice (between two unassisted human players) black draws the position about 90% of the time.

    Of course, I just made all this up. Don't we just love statistics!