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How often does the inferior player win?

How often does the inferior player win?

Only Chess

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I've defeated a few 1300+ players on FICS blitz(10 0) this weekend and I really think I was the inferior player each time. As a matter of fact, I'm sure I was. But then I also lose to people I am sure are worse than me.

Beating those you should lose to and losing to those you should be is a fact of chess. What percentage of the time do you think this happens with blitz games?

How often does it happen playing CC?


What percentag of the time does crap like this happen?

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Originally posted by Eladar
I've defeated a few 1300+ players on FICS blitz(10 0) this weekend and I really think I was the inferior player each time. As a matter of fact, I'm sure I was. But then I also lose to people I am sure are worse than me.

Beating those you should lose to and losing to those you should be is a fact of chess. What percentage of the time do you think this ha ...[text shortened]... Rxf7 22. Ng4+ Kg8 23. gxh3 Raf8 24. Nh6# {hamsuns checkmated} 1-0

[/pgn]
way to often, that I know.

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On this site, if you count draws as half wins it happens about

(1 / (10^((OpponentRating-YourRating)/400)+1) ) * 100

percent of the time.

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I'd expect a 1300 on FICS to fall for this kind of crap all the time 😛

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We need an objective reference point to indicate overall strength. Let's take it as "classical chess" right now. If this is the case, I believe I lose to weaker players in majority of the time in blitz, because I'm a weak blitz player and the rating range of my opponents vary between 1100-1300 and I don't know how I can explain this exactly, but those players make so many tactically not losing but just pointless and wrong moves from a positional point of view. You can just feel it.

This of course doesn't change the fact that they are stronger blitz players than me. I usually look up their standard rating and get upset every time to the fact that most of them would have very little chance against me in a long game.

But that's chess, people are stronger in different areas. I'm sure that after long games some of opponents have looked to my blitz stats and thought "wow I just lost to an idiot!". They were right in a way.

How often does it happen playing CC? It's a lot rarer, but here's a bad dream I saw this month.



I had realized that the guy was not a mighty opponent after his Ng4. But can you figure out what went wrong for white? I input the moves wrongly into chessbase to check my databases, and I thought black had played 2...Nc6 instead of Bc5. I decide on my move, return to my browser, hit submit immediately. It occurred to me later in the day, away from the computer.

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Originally posted by Eladar
I've defeated a few 1300+ players on FICS blitz(10 0) this weekend and I really think I was the inferior player each time. As a matter of fact, I'm sure I was. But then I also lose to people I am sure are worse than me.

Beating those you should lose to and losing to those you should be is a fact of chess. What percentage of the time do you think this ha Rxf7 22. Ng4+ Kg8 23. gxh3 Raf8 24. Nh6# {hamsuns checkmated} 1-0

[/pgn]
I had read a book once that had a table of losing percentages vs rating difference. Unfortunatly I can't recall what book it was, but I do remember most of the table.

Rating Difference--lose % for the weaker player.

0 -- 50%
50 -- ?
100 -- 64%
200 -- 75%
300 -- 86%
400 -- 92%
500 -- 96%
600 -- 98%
700 -- 99%

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Knightstalker,

Were those numbers supposed to be OTB percentages, CC percentages, Standard, or Blitz?

Philidor,

I hate the feeling when I'm away from my computer and think "did I really do that?", then check my game and sure enough, I had. By then my opponent has usually taken advantage of my blunder.

I don't use a data base, but I guess it just goes to show that you should think about a move even if the database tells you it is good.

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Eladar I thought you had your own 1. b3 database, or am I mixing up things?

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N-stalker's statistics are probably based on ELO/FIDE ratings, on RHP those don't apply, as it uses another sort of system to calculate rating changes.

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I was in the process of creating my own database. But Greenpawn warned me off the track I was on. But even if I were to create my database, it would be years before I had anything close to something useful.

If I do go back to it, I'll be building both a 1.b3 and 1.b6-hippo databases. Both types of games are feeling very good. I just started playing the hippo this weekend. 🙂

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Originally posted by Eladar
I don't use a data base, but I guess it just goes to show that you should think about a move even if the database tells you it is good.
Actually that position wasn't in the database, so I just decided on my move on the chessbase window instead of my browser.

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Originally posted by Eladar
I was in the process of creating my own database. But Greenpawn warned me off the track I was on.
Greenpawn is great, but don't let him turn you into an anti-computer person 🙂.

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I'm not an anti computer person. I was just attempting to create a computer aided opening tree, a tree that would eventually lead to complete games.

I have a feeling that Chess Base Light and Fritz 12 could help, but I'm not sure how to save my Fritz analyzed games, other than writing them down on paper. It would be nice if I could save them directly to something along with the analysis.

I'm loving the Hippo. I'm not beating 1200's and 1300's both as white and black. I used to have a very difficult time with black trying to play just 1.b6.

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Originally posted by Eladar
I have a feeling that Chess Base Light and Fritz 12 could help, but I'm not sure how to save my Fritz analyzed games, other than writing them down on paper. It would be nice if I could save them directly to something along with the analysis.

I'm loving the Hippo. I'm not beating 1200's and 1300's both as white and black. I used to have a very difficult time with black trying to play just 1.b6.
That's exactly what those programs are for. Analyze the game, save it and all the annotations and variations will be saved together with the game, you don't have to do any writing about it.

I wouldn't rely on fritz about openings though, it's evaluations for the very early stages are really shaky.

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