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I'm aware that a chess rating is simply an approximation of a players real OTB strength, but I can't help wondering if todays FIDE ratings are a bit inflated. Below is a chart of the top 20 rated players of all-time. Rounding out the bottom 20 are Bobby Fischer and Anatoly Karpov.
Maybe I'm showing my age, but Fischer and Karpov were 2 of the most feared players of their time, and I just can't convince myself there are 18 other players that are better than these two. Any thoughts?
Table of top 20 rated players of all-time, with date their best ratings were first achieved
RankRatingPlayerYear-month
12882Magnus CarlsenMay 2014
22851Garry KasparovJuly 1999
32844Fabiano CaruanaOctober 2014
42830Levon AronianMarch 2014
52822Wesley SoFebruary 2017
62819Maxime Vachier-LagraveAugust 2016
7 (tie)2817Viswanathan AnandMarch 2011
7 (tie)2817Vladimir KramnikOctober 2016
9 (tie)2816Veselin TopalovJuly 2015
9 (tie)2816Hikaru NakamuraOctober 2015
112814Shakhriyar MamedyarovFebruary 2018
122810Alexander GrischukDecember 2014
132798Anish GiriOctober 2015
142793Teimour RadjabovNovember 2012
152791Ding LirenMay 2018
16 (tie)2788Alexander MorozevichJuly 2008
16 (tie)2788Sergey KarjakinJuly 2011
182787Vassily IvanchukOctober 2007
192785Bobby FischerApril 1972
202780Anatoly KarpovJuly 1994
Originally posted by @mchillMost if not all of them are much lower rated now, those ratings are just that, peak ratings. And the Fischer rating of 2785 would no doubt be well above 2800 if he was active today. Remember, he could not win as many points against lower rated players of the day. If he happened to beat a 2850 player he would get more points than beating an average joe 2600 GM.
I'm aware that a chess rating is simply an approximation of a players real OTB strength, but I can't help wondering if todays FIDE ratings are a bit inflated. Below is a chart of the top 20 rated players of all-time. Rounding out the bottom 20 are Bobby Fischer and Anatoly Karpov.
Maybe I'm showing my age, but Fischer and Karpov were 2 of the most feared ...[text shortened]... assily IvanchukOctober 2007
192785Bobby FischerApril 1972
202780Anatoly KarpovJuly 1994
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Originally posted by @mchillI think that this is an effect of the size of the player pool. Player ratings are not absolute, a ratings difference of 400 corresponds to a 90% chance of the stronger player winning. When you win a game your rating can only increase very slightly if your opponent is much weaker. So, the ratings of the best players depend on the ratings of the second division players and so forth. This means that the histogram of player ratings tends to spread out as the player pool increases in size. I don't think it would be difficult to correct for the effect - you just scale the graph down until the areas under the curve match.
I'm aware that a chess rating is simply an approximation of a players real OTB strength, but I can't help wondering if todays FIDE ratings are a bit inflated. Below is a chart of the top 20 rated players of all-time. Rounding out the bottom 20 are Bobby Fischer and Anatoly Karpov.
Maybe I'm showing my age, but Fischer and Karpov were 2 of the most feared ...[text shortened]... assily IvanchukOctober 2007
192785Bobby FischerApril 1972
202780Anatoly KarpovJuly 1994
Originally posted by @deepthoughtAny way of finding ratings standard deviation and mean for each year?
I think that this is an effect of the size of the player pool. Player ratings are not absolute, a ratings difference of 400 corresponds to a 90% chance of the stronger player winning. When you win a game your rating can only increase very slightly if your opponent is much weaker. So, the ratings of the best players depend on the ratings of the seco ...[text shortened]... to correct for the effect - you just scale the graph down until the areas under the curve match.
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Originally posted by @mchillThere may be inflation, points are injected when new players come into the rating pool, lose their points and depart. The number of players iin in the ratings pool is also steadily increasing. It depends on how the points lost through people with high ratings retiring outweighs the points gained by the factors above.
I'm aware that a chess rating is simply an approximation of a players real OTB strength, but I can't help wondering if todays FIDE ratings are a bit inflated. Below is a chart of the top 20 rated players of all-time. Rounding out the bottom 20 are Bobby Fischer and Anatoly Karpov.
Maybe I'm showing my age, but Fischer and Karpov were 2 of the most feared ...[text shortened]... assily IvanchukOctober 2007
192785Bobby FischerApril 1972
202780Anatoly KarpovJuly 1994
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Originally posted by @moonbusThe BCF/ECF system is different - it works by assigning a score to each game of one's opponent's adjusted rating plus 50 points for a win, less fifty for a loss and one's opponents adjusted rating for a draw - the adjusted opponent rating is never more than 40 points away from one's own rating and is equal to one's opponent's actual rating within those bounds. They then take the mean of the games played. It had a problem with inflation which was addressed about a decade ago by taking 10 points off everyone's rating.
There other ratings systems. FIDE is not the only game in town.
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Originally posted by @iamatigerSorry wrong post.
There may be inflation, points are injected when new players come into the rating pool, lose their points and depart. The number of players iin in the ratings pool is also steadily increasing. It depends on how the points lost through people with high ratings retiring outweighs the points gained by the factors above.
Originally posted by @mchillThis does make one pause- was Karpov really at his peak in 1994? It's possible, as his performances at Linares certainly stand out, but I wonder.
I'm aware that a chess rating is simply an approximation of a players real OTB strength, but I can't help wondering if todays FIDE ratings are a bit inflated. Below is a chart of the top 20 rated players of all-time. Rounding out the bottom 20 are Bobby Fischer and Anatoly Karpov.
Maybe I'm showing my age, but Fischer and Karpov were 2 of the most feared ...[text shortened]... assily IvanchukOctober 2007
192785Bobby FischerApril 1972
202780Anatoly KarpovJuly 1994
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Originally posted by @sonhouseSorry, I agree with your post. But it makes me chuckle to think of a 2600 player as an "average joe". I'd love to maintain even half of that rating OTB.
Most if not all of them are much lower rated now, those ratings are just that, peak ratings. And the Fischer rating of 2785 would no doubt be well above 2800 if he was active today. Remember, he could not win as many points against lower rated players of the day. If he happened to beat a 2850 player he would get more points than beating an average joe 2600 GM.
I do believe you're correct, Fischer most certainly would've forced himself to 2900 in this era.