Ironman31 Has Attained His Potential

He's shot his bolt, he's shuffled off this escalator to success, he's joined the IM-but-not-GM choir invisible. 'E's fackin' peaked, my son.

you say this as if it were news.

Originally posted by ivangrice
....'E's fackin' peaked, my son.

Nearly 100 games on the go and fast approaching 2500, I don't see any sign of him waning?!

Originally posted by mantawa
How can you tell?

Originally posted by Exy
Nearly 100 games on the go and fast approaching 2500, I don't see any sign of him waning?!

every time he gets into the 2480's he draws a game and it shoots him right back down to the 2470's. i think it will be a real challenge for him to hit the 2500's, and i say that with the highest respect.

Originally posted by zakkwylder
every time he gets into the 2480's he draws a game and it shoots him right back down to the 2470's. i think it will be a real challenge for him to hit the 2500's, and i say that with the highest respect.

it needed said. apparently the others haven't realized that. yes hes approaching the 2500's, but obviously they haven't noticed he's appoached and than flatlined. so bug off, chump.

Why the obsession? I doubt he cares. After a bit of copy and pasting into a spreadsheet I did some statisical analysis and using myself as a mediocre player for comparisons sake got this:

Player........... Current rating ..Average strength....sigma.......points gained... Max ..... Min
................................................ of opponents........................ per opponent
IronMan31...........2476................. 1974.................. 268.............. 3.07............. 11.1..... 0.01
DeepThought .....1672.................. 1716.................. 220..............17.21............30.61.....1.89

So on average IronMan31 can expect to go up at an incredibly slow rate (the 11.1 is if he beats Weyerstrass, he gets 4.49 for beating littlebear rated at, for me a near invincible, 2161).

If I beat an opponent it will on average increase my rating by 17.21 points, so if I win 5 games in a row my rating can go up by 80 odd points, compared to 15 for IronMan. I get 1 point per draw on average, IronMan loses 13 points. To get roughly the same ratings points as IronMan31 would get if he beat Weyerstrass, his strongest current opponent, I need to beat a 1,550 player.

The reason IronMan's rating isn't moving up much is due to lack of opposition of the same standard, there's only 20 players who can realistically expect a result against him. His rating depends on the number of people playing on the site, the ELO system depends on similar strength players being around who can beat you regularly. Kasparov lost more than 2 games per 1000, his rating was 2800 odd because there are players who could challenge him with a realistic hope of winning.

Maybe its just me, but isn't Akizy ahead of weyerstrass by about 24 points, making him the strongest opponent for Ironman31. Its a damn shame we never got to see Ironman31 and Edmond Dantes face off. that would have been an epic match.

Originally posted by zakkwylder
Maybe its just me, but isn't Akizy ahead of weyerstrass by about 24 points, making him the strongest opponent for Ironman31. Its a damn shame we never got to see Ironman31 and Edmond Dantes face off. that would have been an epic match.

There is a reason why Dantes and Ironman never would have met...........

and maybe you'd be good enough to share this info with us.

Originally posted by zakkwylder
and maybe you'd be good enough to share this info with us.