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  1. 19 Oct '15 13:55
    My eye just fell on the following data in the RHP opening explorer:

    1/ e4 (+- 5 M games: 62% of total games)
    2/ d4 (+- 1.8 M games: 22% of total games)
    3/ c4 (+- 291 k games: 3.5 % of total games)
    4/ Nf3 (+- 271 k games: 3.5 % of total games)
    Total: 8.1 M games

    Compared to Chessbase Live Database:

    1/ e4 (+- 725 k games: 48% of total games)
    2/ d4 (+- 589 k games: 30 % of total games)
    3/ Nf3 (+- 167 k games: 8% of total games)
    4/ c4 (+- 114 k games: 7% of total games)

    It seems "we" are playing e4 much more than GM's do.

    - Is 1.e4 simpler, more fun?
    - Is the difference due to correspondence vs. OTB chess?
  2. Subscriber Ponderable
    chemist
    19 Oct '15 14:17
    Originally posted by tvochess
    My eye just fell on the following data in the RHP opening explorer:

    1/ e4 (+- 5 M games: 62% of total games)
    2/ d4 (+- 1.8 M games: 22% of total games)
    3/ c4 (+- 291 k games: 3.5 % of total games)
    4/ Nf3 (+- 271 k games: 3.5 % of total games)
    Total: 8.1 M games

    Compared to Chessbase Live Database:

    1/ e4 (+- 725 k games: 48% of total games)
    2/ ...[text shortened]... s do.

    - Is 1.e4 simpler, more fun?
    - Is the difference due to correspondence vs. OTB chess?
    Or is it due to the many casual players who learned somehow that e4 is the standard opening move?

    In that case the loss ratio of the move should be higher than in the GM tablebase I presume.
  3. 19 Oct '15 14:33
    Many 'How to Play Chess' books start out with e4. From that move it is easy to show concepts such as control center with a pawn and open lines for your pieces to develop. It also leads to an easy to remember sequence (if your opponent goes along) of e4...N-f3...B-b5...0-0.
  4. 19 Oct '15 14:56
    Yes, these arguments are true of course. 1.e4 was also my most popular move for very long because of its use in beginners books.

    Then what's wrong with e4 at the GM level, that they play d4 much more than we do?
  5. Subscriber BigDoggProblem
    The Advanced Mind
    19 Oct '15 15:53
    Originally posted by tvochess
    Yes, these arguments are true of course. 1.e4 was also my most popular move for very long because of its use in beginners books.

    Then what's wrong with e4 at the GM level, that they play d4 much more than we do?
    The Berlin Wall. It has made 1.e4 more drawish at the GM level.
  6. 19 Oct '15 16:06
    Originally posted by tvochess
    My eye just fell on the following data in the RHP opening explorer:

    1/ e4 (+- 5 M games: 62% of total games)
    2/ d4 (+- 1.8 M games: 22% of total games)
    3/ c4 (+- 291 k games: 3.5 % of total games)
    4/ Nf3 (+- 271 k games: 3.5 % of total games)
    Total: 8.1 M games

    Compared to Chessbase Live Database:

    1/ e4 (+- 725 k games: 48% of total games)
    2/ ...[text shortened]... s do.

    - Is 1.e4 simpler, more fun?
    - Is the difference due to correspondence vs. OTB chess?
    This is reaching at best. Not enough information and you are pulling from 2 different pools of players. Is the second database purely GM games?

    The problem you face now is that a fairly small amount of players on this site play a very large percent of the games, skewing your data.

    A more reliable data set will probably show you that the amount of players who prefer 1.d4 is higher, in relation to 1.e4, than the amount of games featuring 1.d4.(on RHP)
  7. 19 Oct '15 16:23
    Originally posted by iChopWoodForFree
    This is reaching at best. Not enough information and you are pulling from 2 different pools of players. Is the second database purely GM games?

    The problem you face now is that a fairly small amount of players on this site play a very large percent of the games, skewing your data.

    A more reliable data set will probably show you that the amoun ...[text shortened]... who prefer 1.d4 is higher, in relation to 1.e4, than the amount of games featuring 1.d4.(on RHP)
    I don't know how meaningful this data is. I think the Chessbase database contains only (or mostly) GM games.

    It's indeed two different pools of players. That's exactly what I am interested in.

    Can you clarify your last statement?
  8. 19 Oct '15 16:56 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by tvochess
    I don't know how meaningful this data is. I think the Chessbase database contains only (or mostly) GM games.

    It's indeed two different pools of players. That's exactly what I am interested in.

    Can you clarify your last statement?
    62% of games on RHP feature 1.e4

    I doubt that the % of people on RHP that prefer 1.e4 is so high.

    Edit: Excuse me I accidentally wrote d4.
  9. 19 Oct '15 18:50
    Originally posted by iChopWoodForFree
    62% of [b]games on RHP feature 1.e4

    I doubt that the % of people on RHP that prefer 1.e4 is so high.

    Edit: Excuse me I accidentally wrote d4.[/b]
    So, you are saying the people playing e4 play more games than the people playing d4?

    I don't see why that would be, or how this can be verified.
  10. 19 Oct '15 20:56
    1. e4 is clearly more popular because it allows the Scholar's mate 🙂
  11. 19 Oct '15 23:40
    Originally posted by tvochess
    So, you are saying the people playing e4 play more games than the people playing d4?

    I don't see why that would be, or how this can be verified.
    An abundance of data clearly shows that the amount of people who prefer 1.d4 is 1/3 to 2/5, whereas as it would becloser to 2/10 according to the RHP database.

    It may be that 62% current pool of players play/prefer 1.e4. However, the data shows this is clearly not the case over a much wider pool of players. So the odds are against it.

    Still, the only real way to know is by gathering the data. The only obstacle, although a large one, is defining the term "preferred" in this situation.

    Does a person prefer 1.d4 if they played it in 51% of their games? What if a player has played 1.e4 in their last 30 games but have played 1.d4 in 80% of games as white?

    Perhaps, best would be to avoid that mess and just take an equal sample of games for each player and create a new database.

    It still wouldn't be completely reliable but it would be more controlled.
  12. 19 Oct '15 23:49
    Hi Fanakick, that could well be one of the reasons.

    1.e4 e5 2.Qh5 has actually been played more times than
    the King's Gambit (2.f4) or the Vienna (2.Nc3).

    Here

    http://www.redhotpawn.com/chess-games-explorer/user-games.php

    1.e4 = 5,060,691 and second thee and bit million behind!

    1.d4 = 1,795,762

    Best by Test say the Rest.
  13. Standard member ptobler
    Patzer
    20 Oct '15 06:33 / 1 edit
    I find if you play 1 e4 you have to KNOW a million different defences - and if you don't, you're stuffed. If you play 1 d4 you are not in such a bind -

    This is just what I have found after about 10 years of over the board games (and website games) and eventually switching from 1 e4 to 1 d4
  14. Standard member DeepThought
    Losing the Thread
    20 Oct '15 14:08
    Originally posted by iChopWoodForFree
    62% of [b]games on RHP feature 1.e4

    I doubt that the % of people on RHP that prefer 1.e4 is so high.

    Edit: Excuse me I accidentally wrote d4.[/b]
    This argument doesn't work. You're assuming that 1. e4 players play more games than 1. d4 players to explain a discrepancy in results between two different databases. Here are my own statistics:

    My first moves (I'm white):
    Move Games
    e4 541 59%
    d4 152 17%
    f4 92 10%
    c4 87 10%
    a3 18 2%
    f3 10 1%
    Nf3 3 0.3%
    g3 3 0.3%
    b4 2 50% 50%
    908 total games.

    My opponents first move (I'm black):
    e4 594 59%
    d4 267 27%
    c4 53 5%
    Nf3 40 4%
    f4 9 <1%
    e3 7
    b4 6
    b3 5
    g3 4
    d3, Nc3 2
    f3, a3, a4 1
    Total 992 games

    I don't think you can credibly claim that my opponents are atypical. I think it's just that the database contains recorded games and has a much higher percentage of strong players. There are barely any games between people rated 1200 FIDE on most databases I've seen. The RHP database is representative of the entire RHP community including players with low ratings. If you restrict the rating to games where both player is rated 2000+ you'll find the stats are:

    RHP players with rating > 2,000
    Move Games
    e4 14,933 54%
    d4 7,476 27%
    c4 2,142 8%
    Ng1f3 1,541 5%
    f4 302 1%
    Others 1039 4%
    Total 27433

    So I think it's just that stronger players are more likely to play 1. d4.
  15. 20 Oct '15 14:37
    Originally posted by DeepThought
    (shortened)

    So I think it's just that stronger players are more likely to play 1. d4.
    This is a plausible explanation. But why is that?

    According to BigDogProblem, e4 is more drawish on the GM level because of the Berlin Wall, but that is in the Ruy Lopez only, and I think one of the reasons the Sicilian became popular (which is still an e4 opening).

    Someone else mentioned that he/she considers e4 to more difficult to play because of the amount of variations to memorize. But this would make d4 easier for beginners/weaker players (and probably more popular) and not the other way around as we see.

    What makes d4 so unlikeable to RHP players? And assuming this is due to the amount of weaker players on RHP, what makes d4 unlikeable to weaker players?

    My own opinion is that d4 requires very subtle and slow play. I doubt if I would play it myself without opening databases.

    Bonus question: how to play d4? what should a d4-player aim for in the first 10-15 moves?