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  1. Subscriber Marinkatomb
    wotagr8game
    21 Oct '12 22:44
    I find myself eagerly building up for this tournament this year. Although TLCC has only been running for three(?) years, it already has a feel much like Wimbledon for me. A couple of years ago i actually got a VIP pass to the players area and was rubbing shoulders with the like of Kasparov, Korchnoi, Jon Speelman, not to mention the players themselves. Very exciting!

    So anyway, i found myself wondering, will Gawain Jones be playing this year? He won the open a couple of years back and his progress this year has been excellent. If the tournament is going to stay true to it's premiss, ie showcasing the top British players against the top players i the World, surely he should be included?

    Well a quick internet search reveals that yes, he will be playing! What's more, Judit Polgar is playing too!!! How brilliant is that? Could you ask for a better line up? Nigel Short appears to have pulled out (his results in previous years may have something to do with this, if my memory serves, he's only won one game in the three instalments of the tournament).

    So, i thought i'd start something of a predictions thread. Who's gonna win it??

    McShane is my pick (i'm English, i have to pick a Brit). His results in the last few have been outstanding, while he may be a bit rusty at the start, i think he's got the strength.

    Obviously Carlsen is most likely, but it's not a given. McShane has beaten him in this tournament before (was it once or twice? Can't remember exactly..)

    Anyway, what about Polgar? She came third in the Euro's, which was a very strong and very long tournament. She's shown in the past that she can mix it with the best in the World. Could she cause an upset??

    Thoughts/predictions if you please...
  2. 22 Oct '12 00:34
    love to see luke win it, but if i was gambling i'd have to pick magnus
  3. Subscriber Marinkatomb
    wotagr8game
    22 Oct '12 01:16
    Originally posted by simonwells999
    love to see luke win it, but if i was gambling i'd have to pick magnus
    I think Magnus has improved this year. He finally beat Anand the other day, and to be honest, i think that's been something of a mental block for him in recent years. Nakamura seems to be going through a bit of a slump of late (though he did beat Giri today). Kramnik hasn't been in action lately, so who knows where he's at (though he's always strong, even on a bad day!)

    I think Luke can do it, i really do. I forget the tournament, but he got called in at the last minute to replace a withdrawal in a recent tournament. He started badly (as you'd expect, seeing as chess isn't his profession) but some of his later games were amazing. He beat Morozevich quite soundly if i recall. I really wish he'd take a sabbatical from his job for a year to really have a go at breaking into the top 10. I think he'd do it easily. His style is so sound, he's right up there with Kramnik in my eyes. The number of times he's played on in what looks like a hopelessly drawn ending, only to win after 150 odd moves is testament to his skill. Love to watch him play!
  4. Standard member nimzo5
    Ronin
    22 Oct '12 13:26
    Carlsen, Aronian and Kramnik will be at the top end. Hikaru is a wild card- since he has stunk lately he might be better than fair odds to bounce back.

    Polgar, Anand and McShane in the middle.

    Jones and Adams supplying rating points for the group.

    That said I will be rooting for Adams.
  5. 22 Oct '12 13:45
    Anyone fancy an RHP meetup in a pub near the venue? Perhaps in an evening after the day's events.
  6. Donation ketchuplover
    G.O.A.T.
    22 Oct '12 16:23
    Originally posted by Fat Lady
    Anyone fancy an RHP meetup in a pub near the venue? Perhaps in an evening after the day's events.
    Will you be singing?
  7. Subscriber Marinkatomb
    wotagr8game
    22 Oct '12 16:29
    Originally posted by Fat Lady
    Anyone fancy an RHP meetup in a pub near the venue? Perhaps in an evening after the day's events.
    They have boards laid out all over the venue, so meeting up and playing some games could be a possibility. I was half considering entering the rapid tournament.
  8. Subscriber Marinkatomb
    wotagr8game
    22 Oct '12 16:38
    Originally posted by nimzo5
    Carlsen, Aronian and Kramnik will be at the top end. Hikaru is a wild card- since he has stunk lately he might be better than fair odds to bounce back.

    Polgar, Anand and McShane in the middle.

    Jones and Adams supplying rating points for the group.

    That said I will be rooting for Adams.
    Don't under estimate McShane. He would have won last year if he'd beaten Kramnik in the last round. He tied for second in 2010 (and would have won if it was a classical scoring system) and he came second in 2009, all be it with 4 losses (the football scoring working in his favour that time, but when you consider he was only rated 2615 at the time that's still an outstanding result none the less!)

    I think Jones is in something of a similar position to McShane 4 years ago. No one expects anything, his rating is so low in comparison to everyone else, his elo will probably rise even if he only achieves 2 or 3 draws. He's young an up and coming, who knows, he could easily have an upset or two up his sleeve.
  9. 22 Oct '12 21:00
    Originally posted by nimzo5
    Carlsen, Aronian and Kramnik will be at the top end. Hikaru is a wild card- since he has stunk lately he might be better than fair odds to bounce back.

    Polgar, Anand and McShane in the middle.

    Jones and Adams supplying rating points for the group.

    That said I will be rooting for Adams.
    Don't forget that first three will play in the candidates tournamets at 20-Mar-2013. So may be they will not show us the opening secrets. So from my point of view Vishy and Magnus can win it
  10. Subscriber Marinkatomb
    wotagr8game
    22 Oct '12 21:20
    Originally posted by elady
    Don't forget that first three will play in the candidates tournamets at 20-Mar-2013. So may be they will not show us the opening secrets. So from my point of view Vishy and Magnus can win it
    I would be absolutely amazed if Anand won it, the guys has won maybe two games in the last year (and one was rapid...admittedly a very important rapid game, but rapid none the less).

    I wonder if he'll ever regain his old form, i really can't see him remaining WC after the next candidates. Now that the candidates tournament is going to be a double round robin, the eventual challenger is going to be a honed tiger/Wilder beast/crocodile all rolled into one. Don't get me wrong, i'd be pleased if he won London, but if the last 3 or 4 years are anything to go on, he doesn't stand a chance.
  11. 22 Oct '12 21:57
    Originally posted by Marinkatomb
    I would be absolutely amazed if Anand won it, the guys has won maybe two games in the last year (and one was rapid...admittedly a very important rapid game, but rapid none the less).

    I wonder if he'll ever regain his old form, i really can't see him remaining WC after the next candidates. Now that the candidates tournament is going to be a double roun ...[text shortened]... won London, but if the last 3 or 4 years are anything to go on, he doesn't stand a chance.
    Just out of curiosity, I looked up Anand's 2012 record. It is pretty bad.

    32 Games

    25 Draws

    4 Wins

    2600 Rated Player/Gelfand/Gelfand/ And A Simul Win

    3 Losses

    2647 Rated Player/Gelfand/Carlsen

    If someone hadn't posted that simul loss (to Anand), he wouldn't even have a positive overall score!
  12. Subscriber Marinkatomb
    wotagr8game
    22 Oct '12 22:32 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by paulbuchmanfromfics
    Just out of curiosity, I looked up Anand's 2012 record. It is pretty bad.

    32 Games

    25 Draws

    4 Wins

    2600 Rated Player/Gelfand/Gelfand/ And A Simul Win

    3 Losses

    2647 Rated Player/Gelfand/Carlsen

    If someone hadn't posted that simul loss (to Anand), he wouldn't even have a positive overall score!
    Yes for such a brilliant player, his recent record is absolutely abysmal! This just highlights what a fractured system Chess has for it's champion. How is it possible in this day and age for someone to perform so badly, yet remain champion?

    I think the World championship should be annual, and the champion should participate against all of the candidates, not just the winner. The World champion should be the strongest player in the World and should have to prove and reprove that dominance.

    EDIT: All this said, i should perhaps give him some credit as a lot of these games are actually for the World championship, where a loss is a big deal. So a lot of draws can be forgiven. But still, the figures don't look good at all..