Predictions? Magnus or Vishy?

Originally posted by Fat Lady
http://tinyurl.com/CarlsenAnandGames

Right, Anand actually has a plus score against Carlsen. Doesn't seem a totally fair representation of their relative strengths though, because Carlsen seems to still be improving (at least he's much better than he was in his early teens when he played the first games). Anand, on the other hand, doesn't seem to have improved that much since the 90s.

If this was Magnus vs Anand in his prime, Anand would win.

If Magnus wins it will be because Anand's play has deteriorated.

Originally posted by KnightStalker47
If this was Magnus vs Anand in his prime, Anand would win.

If Magnus wins it will be because Anand's play has deteriorated.

I agree with that, I've seen Anand play some very deep openings and sacrifices and they seem to be missing from carlsens game and might cause problems in a match. Carlsen does have that 'anti gm' style though and it clearly works.

If the FIDE rating system is any good, then Carlsen should win.

P.S. I believe R.J. Fischer had a higher rating than Boris Spassky even though he had never beaten Spassky before the WC match.

I was right. The ratings were Fischer -- 2785, Spassky -- 2660 according to :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_1972

Originally posted by e4chris
I agree with that, I've seen Anand play some very deep openings and sacrifices and they seem to be missing from carlsens game and might cause problems in a match. Carlsen does have that 'anti gm' style though and it clearly works.

I don't think these deep sacrifices are missing from Carlsens game because he doesn't see them, far from it! Play through a few of his games from when he was 14/15, his style was very tactical indeed as a junior! Carlsen takes a very 'Capablanca' approach to his games against the elite these days, why risk a sacrifice if you can gain a solid position advantage instead or a winning end game? It is in the latter phases of the game that is clearly superior, he's just playing to his strengths..

Originally posted by KnightStalker47
If this was Magnus vs Anand in his prime, Anand would win.

If Magnus wins it will be because Anand's play has deteriorated.

That is one of the main excuses given when any former World Champion is defeated. 😏

P.S. That would also be a good excuse for my OTB defeats now.

Remember, Magnus hasn't reached HIS prime yet!

"Remember, Magnus hasn't reached HIS prime yet!"

We don't know that. Maybe this is as good as he is going to get...
....which is pretty damn good.

He's ranked number No1 (according to a four digit number) so how do we
measure any future improvement.
The World Champion is number one.
As Nigel Short said. "He's not number one until he becomes the World Champion."

Originally posted by greenpawn34
"Remember, Magnus hasn't reached HIS prime yet!"

We don't know that. Maybe this is as good as he is going to get...
....which is pretty damn good.

He's ranked number No1 (according to a four digit number) so how do we
measure any future improvement.
The World Champion is number one.
As Nigel Short said. "He's not number one until he becomes the World Champion."

True, but how many chessplayers reached their peaks at 22? Kasparov, for instance, peaked at 2851 when he was 36. I know he won the title at 22, but I don't think he still had reached his peak.

This is relevant:
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/carlsen-will-be-ridiculously-difficult-to-play-against/1096789/0

Hi Woody.

But maybe he has gone as far as his natural talent has taken him.
There are still some flaws (else he would win every game.)
These have to be ironed out. He has six months.
I still think he will do it.

I hear New York is putting in a bid for the match.
I expect others to follow.

Maybe if we ask Russ he can put in a bid to play it on RHP.
(Someone suggest it on Site Ideas.)

Originally posted by greenpawn34


He's ranked number No1 (according to a four digit number) so how do we
measure any future improvement.
The World Champion is number one.
As Nigel Short said. "He's not number one until he becomes the World Champion."

I think in this era the ELO system is a better gauge of skill than being the "WCC". Last WC match showed how retaining the title is a lot easier than winning it. A well above average but not dominant GM rides some nice blitz tiebreaker wins to qualify for a match with Anand. The match was weak enough to warrant Kasparov stating-

"Anand played the match terribly. But, it seems, Gelfand wasn't fated to win even against such a weakened opponent. Anand played the 2008 match against Kramnik excellently and acceptably against Topalov in 2010, but his current play is at a different level.........I would repeat again that the finished Title Match had no relation to determining the strongest chess player in the world".

How to get into such a candidates match? there's a few logical ones but then there are these- "Tournament organizers' nominee, Loser of the World Chess Championship 2010 match, Loser of the 2009 Challenger Match"

Maybe losing big events deserves it, but nominee? really????


There is a lot of romance tied to the title but I think a math system has more credibility.

Originally posted by Kareemelbadry
Right, Anand actually has a plus score against Carlsen. Doesn't seem a totally fair representation of their relative strengths though, because Carlsen seems to still be improving (at least he's much better than he was in his early teens when he played the first games). Anand, on the other hand, doesn't seem to have improved that much since the 90s.

Anand has a HUGE plus score against Magnus and the only early games M won were in blitz, an achievement in itself since Vishy is so good at blitz but it is worth noting M won in 2012 in a regular timed tournament game:

YouTube

Youtube with analysis.

That Jerry from the ChessNetwork does a good job of explaining that game.

This Canal-Sokolsky attack was first played against me by Kings and Pawns and he won the game. However, he played 5.d4 instead of c4. Since I lost that game, I tried it myself a couple of times. The 5.c4 in this game looks better than 5.d4.

Magnus Carlsen vs. Vishy Anand - 2012 Chess Masters Final - Bilbao