Please turn on javascript in your browser to play chess.
Only Chess Forum

Only Chess Forum

  1. Subscriber sonhouse
    Fast and Curious
    20 Jun '14 20:42
    Now listed at 2881! So 19 more points to the first 2900 player in history as if 2881 wasn't already a record!

    My question is this, supposing a 50% record of draws and wins, in other words, out of ten games he has 5 draws and 5 wins, how many games would it take for him to get that 2900?

    Or is that a reasonable draw/win ratio? What if it was 7 draws and 3 wins, could he get there with THAT ratio?

    I am talking about one, two, three, four of those 10 game sets, however many it would take.

    Anyone can figure that one out?
  2. Subscriber Marinkatomb
    wotagr8game
    21 Jun '14 00:54 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sonhouse
    Now listed at 2881! So 19 more points to the first 2900 player in history as if 2881 wasn't already a record!

    My question is this, supposing a 50% record of draws and wins, in other words, out of ten games he has 5 draws and 5 wins, how many games would it take for him to get that 2900?

    Or is that a reasonable draw/win ratio? What if it was 7 draws a ...[text shortened]... ree, four of those 10 game sets, however many it would take.

    Anyone can figure that one out?
    I'm not really able to do the maths, but in the last two tournaments he played in he scored +2 in each (one was with two losses and four wins, the other with two losses and two wins). In each case he lost a little bit of rating. I think he really needs to score +3 these days in order to increase his rating (assuming he continues playing elite tournaments and doesn't start taking on 2500 players, in that case he'll be getting practically nothing for a win).

    If he is going to do it, i think it will be with another Tal memorial sort of result. Last year i think he got +7 or something like that. Interestingly he became the first player ever (along with Nakamura, just!) to break 2900 in an official fide rating. His live blitz rating is 2948 (Nakamura is 2905). 🙂
  3. Standard member DeepThought
    Losing the Thread
    22 Jun '14 02:07 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sonhouse
    Now listed at 2881! So 19 more points to the first 2900 player in history as if 2881 wasn't already a record!

    My question is this, supposing a 50% record of draws and wins, in other words, out of ten games he has 5 draws and 5 wins, how many games would it take for him to get that 2900?

    Or is that a reasonable draw/win ratio? What if it was 7 draws a ...[text shortened]... ree, four of those 10 game sets, however many it would take.

    Anyone can figure that one out?
    It depends on how strong his opponents are. A draw against a 2500 player would take him down by 10 (as I remember), and a win would get him only a few points. To exceed 2,900 he needs games against other super-GMs and to win, 50% draws probably isn't enough.
  4. Standard member atticus2
    Frustrate the Bad
    22 Jun '14 11:36 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sonhouse
    Now listed at 2881! So 19 more points to the first 2900 player in history as if 2881 wasn't already a record!
    It wasn't already a record.

    Carlsen set the all-time record of 2889.2 on April 21st. In the past two months, he's slumped all the way down to 2876.9. If he carries on like this, he'll reach my Elo in about 200 years time

    Incidentally, 2889 is exactly 100 more than Fischer's best, set 42 years earlier
  5. Subscriber TheBigKatonline On Vacation
    Editor
    22 Jun '14 20:21
    Originally posted by atticus2
    It wasn't already a record.

    Carlsen set the all-time record of [b]2889.2
    on April 21st. In the past two months, he's slumped all the way down to 2876.9. If he carries on like this, he'll reach my Elo in about 200 years time

    Incidentally, 2889 is exactly 100 more than Fischer's best, set 42 years earlier[/b]
    Fischer was a sad case. Chess made him and chess destroyed him.
  6. 22 Jun '14 21:25
    Originally posted by DeepThought
    It depends on how strong his opponents are. A draw against a 2500 player would take him down by 10 (as I remember), and a win would get him only a few points. To exceed 2,900 he needs games against other super-GMs and to win, 50% draws probably isn't enough.
    If he is rated 2281, he would need to win against someone who is rated at least 2285 in order to advance his rating. Specifically, against a 2285 opponent, the outcomes are:

    Win: 2882 (Actually 2881.5015)
    Draw: 2874
    Lose: 2866

    I got bored one day and made a spreadsheet from the info at FAQ. 🙂
  7. 22 Jun '14 21:34
    Oh, and he will not be able to advance to 2900 in a single game, no matter what the opponent's rating may be. According to the math, winning against someone with a 6100 rating brings him to 2897. Nothing above 6100 alters the math at all. (Well, at least out to 7 decimal places.)
  8. Donation ketchuplover
    G.O.A.T.
    22 Jun '14 22:18
    Originally posted by atticus2
    It wasn't already a record.

    Carlsen set the all-time record of [b]2889.2
    on April 21st. In the past two months, he's slumped all the way down to 2876.9. If he carries on like this, he'll reach my Elo in about 200 years time

    Incidentally, 2889 is exactly 100 more than Fischer's best, set 42 years earlier[/b]
    I've only seen Fischer's best as 2785. Where did/do you see/hear about it being 2789? Nakamura's high is 2789 afaik.
  9. Standard member ChessPraxis
    Cowboy From Hell
    23 Jun '14 00:56 / 1 edit
    IMO the only rating that really matters, and I think it's been sometime since the chess world could say this.
    His rating is undisputedly #1.
  10. Subscriber sonhouse
    Fast and Curious
    23 Jun '14 11:00
    Originally posted by ketchuplover
    I've only seen Fischer's best as 2785. Where did/do you see/hear about it being 2789? Nakamura's high is 2789 afaik.
    But you are not taking into account the ratings inflation that has also taken place. I have no doubt Fischer's rating would be above 2800 if he was Carlsen's age now.
  11. Standard member atticus2
    Frustrate the Bad
    23 Jun '14 11:14
    Originally posted by ketchuplover
    I've only seen Fischer's best as 2785. Where did/do you see/hear about it being 2789? Nakamura's high is 2789 afaik.
    Fischer's 2789 is dated 3 Aug 1972, presumably at some point during or after the Spassky match. My data is from 'Living Chess Ratings' which updates daily, including tourneys in progress

    http://www.2700chess.com/

    A note of caution therefore: 'live ratings' are not 'fixed point' (monthly) FIDE ratings. So there may be small discrepancies. That is, a 'live rating' high may reflect in-tourney performance, not end-tourney FIDE summary rating.

    Of Fischer's 'high', by any standards it is an astonishing rating, given it was set 42 years ago. Grade inflation since then must be worth most of the 100-pt gap to Carlsen