Will Carlsen be first past 2900?

It strikes me this kid is clearly leaps and bounds ahead of the everyone atm. I think Kramnik is the only top GM who can seriously expect to beat him though that is going to change pretty quickly. How do you prepare to play a player who plays every single opening ever invented? His performance at the last few tournaments is testament, i think he's achieved close to a 2900 performance at every tournie in the last 12-18 months! 😕

Mind my language but the FIDE ratings at the top are incessant or is it incestous? You get my drift. FIDE should reset GM ratings so that the world champ is 2600.

Originally posted by enrico20
Mind my language but the FIDE ratings at the top are incessant or is it incestous? You get my drift. FIDE should reset GM ratings so that the world champ is 2600.

Why? I don't see what difference it makes, the strongest has the highest rating, what's the problem?

Originally posted by Marinkatomb
Why? I don't see what difference it makes, the strongest has the highest rating, what's the problem?

Its just the top players playing each other in a pool so the ratings are inflated. There are about 50 GMs over 2700 are you telling me those guys are better than Fischer? If Carlsen passes 2900 will he really be 400 points better than an ordinary 2500 GM?

I think you have to compare a player against his era.

Originally posted by enrico20
Its just the top players playing each other in a pool so the ratings are inflated. There are about 50 GMs over 2700 are you telling me those guys are better than Fischer? If Carlsen passes 2900 will he really be 400 points better than an ordinary 2500 GM?

Do you think there is a inflation in ELO points?

Originally posted by enrico20
Its just the top players playing each other in a pool so the ratings are inflated. There are about 50 GMs over 2700 are you telling me those guys are better than Fischer? If Carlsen passes 2900 will he really be 400 points better than an ordinary 2500 GM?

Again, so what? Chessmetrix website (http://db.chessmetrics.com/CM2/PeakList.asp?Params=) tries to do comparisons between era's, but tbh those comparisons are some what meaningless as Fischer played in a much smaller pool of players than Carlsen is today. Working out what Fischers rating would be today is impossible, who knows whether one of the top GM's of today would have the beating of him or not? At the end of the day, ratings are simply there to decide eligibility to different categories of tournament and to decide players eligibility for certain titles. The fact that they're slowly inflating is neither here nor there if you ask me...

Without a doubt there is false inflatiton going on.

If you get bunch of 1600 players playing each other again and again and again.
and one lad is better than the rest - say an 1800 player.

Then he will reach 2400. This does not make him a 2400 player.

It's not Fischer's fault that these incest tournaments did not exist then.

The whole thing is a joke. If this keeps up you will get ratings of 3500.

Carlsen is a brilliant player though, you can see that by looking at his games,
not by slavering and drooling over by a 4 digit number.

It's not just his abilty to chop and change his openings which marks him out.
He is a very very good chess player in all aspects of the game.

Anand - Carlsen match will ge good. It may not be as one sided as you
may think. Carslen has not been fully tested in serious match play.
Though I'd expect a Carlsen victory.
His age, determination and skill wil come through.

Originally posted by greenpawn34
Without a doubt there is false inflatiton going on.

If you get bunch of 1600 players playing each other again and again and again.
and one lad is better than the rest - say an 1800 player.

Then he will reach 2400. This does not make him a 2400 player.

It's not Fischer's fault that these incest tournaments did not exist then.

The whole thing ...[text shortened]... .
Though I'd expect a Carlsen victory.
His age, determination and skill wil come through.

Great, on topic! Yes i think Anand v Carlsen looks somewhat inevitable, though i do feel Kramnik will give Magnus a serious run for his money. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kramnik beat Carlsen in the Candidates tbh. His match play and preparation is exceptionally good! I wonder if Kasparov would play as Carlsens second if he does make the WC? It would be totally one sided if he did!

I agree with greenpawn34 100%. People are fooled by ratings not actually trying to understand what is going on. 😵

Originally posted by greenpawn34
If you get bunch of 1600 players playing each other again and again and again.
and one lad is better than the rest - say an 1800 player.

Then he will reach 2400.

no. he absolutely won't. he'd score about 75% against the 1600s, and end up around 1800. that's how the elo math works.

Originally posted by Marinkatomb
Great, on topic! Yes i think Anand v Carlsen looks somewhat inevitable, though i do feel Kramnik will give Magnus a serious run for his money. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kramnik beat Carlsen in the Candidates tbh. His match play and preparation is exceptionally good! I wonder if Kasparov would play as Carlsens second if he does make the WC? It would be totally one sided if he did!

I'd say the only real competition will come from the new young guys, in a year or two kramnik, anand etc. aren't going to be able to touch carlsen. they're struggling now, and magnus is still improving.

Originally posted by Marinkatomb
It strikes me this kid is clearly leaps and bounds ahead of the everyone atm. I think Kramnik is the only top GM who can seriously expect to beat him though that is going to change pretty quickly. How do you prepare to play a player who plays every single opening ever invented? His performance at the last few tournaments is testament, i think he's achieved close to a 2900 performance at every tournie in the last 12-18 months! 😕

Your not the only person who thinks it's possible! Here's a sample from my ICC newsletter.

''In the final round on Friday, all three Black games dominated with the highlight being Carlsen beating Wang Yue for a remarkable, +5 unbeaten final score of 7.5/10 to finish two full points clear of the field, with an incredible 2918 performance. The Carlsen carnage has now pushed his rating to 2826.4, according to dedicated Norwegian number-cruncher Hans Arild Rund at chess.liverating.org - that's a rise of 13.4 rating points from one tournament alone. That rating is the second highest in history, which was only surpassed by Garry Kasparov's peak of 2851 set in 1999. Carlsen is only 19 and still to reach his peak; it's not that far-fetched a scenario of him reaching 2900 if he can continue this level of performance over the next few years.''

Originally posted by wormwood
no. he absolutely won't. he'd score about 75% against the 1600s, and end up around 1800. that's how the elo math works.

I think what gp is saying can be shown in this example.
http://www.redhotpawn.com/club/table.php?clubid=86
Look at the "club" ratings for the top 5 then look at general ratings.

Originally posted by wormwood
no. he absolutely won't. he'd score about 75% against the 1600s, and end up around 1800. that's how the elo math works.

If the same bunch keep playing the same people again and again.
The best player's grade will continue to rise.

Try it in you club/clan.

Select 10 players. all graded approx 1600

A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I & K. with the instructions.

Everyone lose to A
Everyone lose to B except A
Everyone lose to C execpt B & A
Everyone lose to D except C,B,& A

etc.etc..

Run this 'closed shop' tournament 10-15 times and player A will up near the top
on the first page. (player K will be the lowest of the low).

Anyway, Magnus does not give a Monkey fart about his grade.
He knows how good he is and does not need a number to tell him so.