19 Jun '04 11:24>
Very well explained, polynikes.
Yet still some people (I don't mean here) can't see it.
Yet still some people (I don't mean here) can't see it.
Originally posted by TheMaster37Lots of INFORMed people. Probability is based upon INFORMation, and you are not using all of the available INFORMation..
Therefor my chances of winning the lottery are 1/2.
But who says that this kind of reasoning is wrong?
Originally posted by TheMaster37Excuse my candour, but the above two statements are incompatible.
As a mathematician....
Originally posted by TheMaster37
That's what i was thinking. Since A already knows that one of the other two will be executed, he knows that his chance of survival is 1/2;
Originally posted by TheMaster371) Are you serious?
Before the prisoner asks the guard, there are still three possibilities;
A lives, B lives or C lives.
When the guard says B dies, that eliminates one possibility. That leaves only two;
A lives or C lives.
Originally posted by TheMaster37Consider the first scenario I present, in which I conclude that A's chances of survival are at least 1/2. It suffices for A to know the guard's process, and it is not necessary for him to know which of cases 1, 2, or 3 occurred. He can come to a valid logical conclusion that his chances of survival are no worse than 1/2 immediately upon the guard's answer of "B will die."
But A doesn't know what the guard knows, so for A, the chances are different.
Now don't simply say "this is monty hall problem". Indicate where i'm wrong, and how EXACTLY this is the monty hall problem, since the prisoners can't switch as is a possibility in the Monty Hall game.Substitute "Live" for "Prize", "Die" for "No Prize", and "Would you rather be Prisoner C?" for "Would you like to switch to the remaining closed door?". Further, specify that the guard knows from the outset everybody's fate, just as Monty knows the contents of every door. Prisoner A asking to reveal the death of B or C is analogous to the contestant asking to have a door with no prize revealed.