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A Sheep Amidst the Wolves

A Sheep Amidst the Wolves

Posers and Puzzles

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A farmer is trying to protect his two sheep from the local wolves. He sets up two separate double enclosures ( a sheep in a fence within a fence ) made of 16 uniform segments of fence each.

Enclosure 𝐀 is made of a 10 segments outer fence, and a 6 segments inner fence.

Enclosure 𝐁 is made of a 12 segments outer fence, and a 4 segments inner fence.

If overnight 2 segments of fence are knocked down by wind in each enclosure at random, and a wolf can only get to the sheep inside if 1 segment from each of the outer and inner fence from each enclosure are knocked over, in which enclosure ( 𝐀 or 𝐁 ) is the farmer most likely to find his sheep ( alive ) in the morning?

Part B:
What is the probability he finds at least one sheep alive in the morning?

P.S. As always, please hide your response.

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@joe-shmo said
A farmer is trying to protect his two sheep from the local wolves. He sets up two separate double enclosures ( a sheep in a fence within a fence ) made of 16 uniform segments of fence each.

Enclosure 𝐀 is made of a 10 segments outer fence, and a 6 segments inner fence.

Enclosure 𝐁 is made of a 12 segments outer fence, and a 4 segments inner fence.

If overnight ...[text shortened]... finds at least one sheep alive in the morning?

P.S. As always, please hide your response.
Odds for sheep living:
50% for Enclosure A; 60% for Enclosure B


Part B:
80%

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@BigDoggProblem

Correct!

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