Originally posted by flexmorecome on ... its not that difficult ...
you can calculate his real rating:
if ironman played his last 300 games over and over and over again, with the same results against players rated exactly as they were, then where would he level out?
similarly for other players ... what would their projected rating be?
ok to help you out ....
ironman's recent games that count (over 1900):
Opponents lost to:2323.
Opponents drawn with: 2236, 2311, 2161, 2151, 1793
Opponents beaten: 1934, 2279, 1917, 2169, 1945, 1947, 2123, 2243, 2122, 1912, 1996, 2141, 1981, 2165, 1914, 2267, 2221, 1922, 2030, 2254, 2261, 1923, 2185, 2130, 1930, 2166, 2200, 2120, 2186, 1976, 2198, 2080, 1919, 1963.
How is my rating calculated? ...
Players are rated using the following formula:
New Rating = Old Rating + K * (Score - Win Expectancy)
K is a constant (32 for 0-2099, 24 for 2100-2399, 16 for 2400 and above)
Score is 1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw and 0 for a loss.
The Win Expectancy is calculated using the following formula :
Win Expectancy = 1 / (10^((OpponentRating-YourRating)/400)+1)
The Win Expectancy is used in the rating calculation but is interesting on its own. For example, the calculation below is for a rating difference of 200. This shows that if you have a rating 200 points higher than another player, you can expect to beat them, on average, three times for each four games played.
Win Expectancy = 1 / (10^(-200/400)+1) = 0.76
Note: ^ = "to the power of", e.g. 2^3=8.