17 Jan '08 17:172 edits

There will be a draw held at the county fair. 10 tickets will be entered. 4 will be winning tickets. All tickets will be put into a box and randomly drawn. There will be 10 draws. After the first draw, the ticket will be discarded so there will only be 9 tickets remaining etc etc.

You must try to "predict" which draw will hold a winning ticket. Which draw would you bet on in order to maximize the probability that you will pick one of the draws that contain a winning ticket. You must pick a draw BEFORE any of the draws occur and you can only pick one draw.

Can you devise a strategy or do you think it makes no difference at all which draw you pick?

You must try to "predict" which draw will hold a winning ticket. Which draw would you bet on in order to maximize the probability that you will pick one of the draws that contain a winning ticket. You must pick a draw BEFORE any of the draws occur and you can only pick one draw.

Can you devise a strategy or do you think it makes no difference at all which draw you pick?