Oldie but goodie

Originally posted by eldragonfly
i'm completely surprised you actually understand this geep, congratulations. i made this exact point on the cards in the hat thread, it's good to see that you have finally come to your senses. 😠

In the case where the 2nd door opened was random from amongst the two left, I have never said other than the odds were equal switching or staying.

It is when the door selected was intentionally selected to be empty/losing by someone who knew what each door held that the answer changes, and that is reflected in my answer as well. As I recall, in the thread where this problem was propounded before was explicitly defined with the circumstances of the Monty Hall problem, wherein the host knows the door layout, and intentionally chooses a losing door.

In this case, the problem was posed without any statement on the questions posed above, and thus an answer given for any set of reasonable assumptions, including those of the traditional Monty Hall set-up the post clearly refers to.

Two other sets of circumstances are that the door IS chosen randomly, and that the host decides whether to offer a chance to switch based on which door you pick.

Originally posted by geepamoogle
In the case where the 2nd door opened was random from amongst the two left, I have never said other than the odds were equal switching or staying.

It is when the door selected was intentionally selected to be empty/losing by someone who knew what each door held that the answer changes, and that is reflected in my answer as well. As I recall, in the t ...[text shortened]... mly, and that the host decides whether to offer a chance to switch based on which door you pick.

enough i say. let's not dip into that bag again geep my dearest.

It was implied, in my interpretation of comments made, that my comments here were inconsistent with previous comments. The last post was a defense of my consistency on this poser.

Those comments are sufficient to clarify both then and now, in my opinion, and nothing more need be said at this time.

Originally posted by doodinthemood
It has, and it's debatable depending on which version you post.

In the version you've posted, we need to make an assumption:
Does the presenter want you to win the money?
Assuming that ratings are difficult to determine a correlation for, the answer to this is "no" because they don't want the show to lose money.

Now, he didn't say he was going ...[text shortened]... or, and now the host is directly encouraging you to swap.

Thus you should stick.

Don't forget that you also need the assumption that on a rainy day there are no winning doors and that it's not raining. 😕

Quick way to grasp why it's better to switch.....imagine there are a million doors to choose from, you pick one. Then all the losing doors are open except the one you picked and another one. The odds on the one you first picked were one in a million, the odds on the other door remaining are the reverse. Switch and pick the other door.