Originally posted by wolfgang59
But your model is not the only one that will fulfil the constraints of the question!
Therefore you cannot prove anything from that model ... only suggest it as one of many solutions.
For instance in [b]my model there are 2 balls labeled A and one B. One is drawn from the bag.
The ball drawn from the bag is the winner and second place is dec ...[text shortened]... 1/2 = 1/6
BCA = 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6
CAB = 0
CBA = 0
It proves nothing just as your model does.[/b]
Very interesting! Here's what you said earlier in this thread:
"25% makes no sense.
There are 3 other outcomes equally likely (BCA, ACB, CAB) so they must be 25% also ... then there is the possiblity of ABC - the MOST likely.
Logically it cannot be more than 2/9 and with a few assumptions is greater
than 2/9"
So back then (only 3 days ago) ABC was the MOST likely; now it's no more likely than ACB according to your recently contrived model. Also back then BCA;ACB; and CAB were all equally likely; now they are all unequally likely in this new model. Though why you ever thought they WERE equally likely is another mystery to me. You seem very confused.
It IS of course very reasonable to infer that ABC is the MOST likely, but you've had to throw out that logic, and contradict your own words, in order to come up with this new forced model.
I doubt you will ever be able to cook up a 'solution' that's as coherent as mine, but keep trying if you must.