Comet in September 2015

Originally posted by whodey
So what if an amateur sees something and reports it and no one in the press tells about it?

If such a catastrophic event were to happen on earth, there would be virtually nothing that could be done about it.

Why then create hysteria?

Nobody in the press reporting on the biggest story in history??? Not a chance.

However, as I made clear [I thought] in my last post, you don't just look at an asteroid or comet
and instantly magically know it's orbit.

It takes many observations over at least several days, usually weeks or months, to get
any kind of accurate orbit. [with the most accuracy coming from radar ping's]

As your telescope is on a rotating planet [with weather], you need to tell other astronomers around
the world about the asteroid so that they can take part in tracking it.

So, in the event of the discovery of a new asteroid or comet that is on a collision course, at
first, nobody knows that it is on a collision course.

The sequences goes something like this.

Astronomers [professional or otherwise] discover a new asteroid/comet.

They report it's location in the sky to the Minor Planet Centre [hoping that it's a new discovery that
will be named after them, because it's cool to have an asteroid named after you] who issue an
notice telling other astronomers [and the public] that this object exists and where to find it.

Follow-up observations are made which give a rough indication of the objects orbit.

Calculations show that there is a very small probability of this object hitting the Earth on either this,
or some near future orbit.

If this asteroid or comet has any significant size, this will cause it to have a high Torino Scale rating.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale.html

Which is reported publicly. [and this happens and occasionally even hits the news]

This acts as a signal for more serious telescopes to home in on the object and do further follow-up observations
to further refine the objects orbit.

As further refinements are made and the projected orbit is calculated more accurately then the
risk assessment will be [publicly] updated.

It's quite usual in such instances for the likely impact probability to go up before going down.

In the case we are discussing where a large object IS actually on a collision course, the probability will
only go up.

However, there is no cover-up option available at this point. The asteroid/comet is already front page
headline news, it's location known to everyone, and visible in any decent telescope by anyone in the
world.

Thousands of astronomers in countries all over the world can check and verify the orbit and observations,
along with thousands more amateurs.

The worlds leaders will want and need to divert whatever resources available to deal with this threat.

Also near impossible to do secretly, and it's beneficial to get all available input and assistance which
means this needs to be public.


We CAN divert asteroids and comets, given enough warning. Which is why these programs exist.

In the case where an object is spotted without much warning [1~2 years or less] then far from
wanting to keep information secret, you want to make it publicly known so that the orbit is pinned
down as fast as possible so that you know it's a threat as fast as possible to give the maximum amount
of time to deal with it.

2.5 km comet would be a catastrophe if it hit.

Its not big enough to make us go extinct however.

The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, which was likely 3~8 times denser, and was > ~8km across.

That's > ~30 to ~80 times as massive. [> ~10 to ~40 times as energetic factoring in velocity]

And we can take steps to mitigate the damage with advanced warning.

Keeping such an event secret, would be stupid, irrational, counter productive, and almost totally impossible.

Given that the prior probability of such an impact in our lifetimes is minuscule, coupled with the minuscule
probability of successfully achieving a cover up in such an event, coupled with the low desirability of such
a cover-up, makes the probability that such an event and cover-up will occur in our lifetimes is too tiny to
consider remotely plausible.

The frequency of internet rumour conspiracy freakouts on this subject however is several per year.

This is a conspiracy nut freakout, nothing more.

Originally posted by whodey
Hysteria only sells if it makes money.

This particular hysteria would only cause people to forsake their daily living arrangements and attempt to protect themselves in the same manner that the power that be would presumably be trying to prepare. In short, it is limiting the competition for such resources needed to try and survive.

Progressives generall ...[text shortened]... k that the planet is over populated as it is. This may be seen as a good thing by many of them.

And you are one of the conspiracy nut religious nutters having an internet freakout.

Originally posted by googlefudge
Nobody in the press reporting on the biggest story in history??? Not a chance.

However, as I made clear [I thought] in my last post, you don't just look at an asteroid or comet
and instantly magically know it's orbit.

It takes many observations over at least several days, usually weeks or months, to get
any kind of accurate orbit. [with the mos ...[text shortened]... on this subject however is several per year.

This is a conspiracy nut freakout, nothing more.

And besides, the supposed crash is coming from that comet that got eaten by the sun, and then word got out that some of it survived, which is entirely possible but the orbit of that comet is hyperbolic, and perpendicular to the entire planetary system including Earth so it can never get within 100 million miles, 160 million Km, to Earth. It is on a one way trip completely out of the solar system now, going way past solar escape velocity.

What a bunch of crap, all generated by religious nutters, frothing at the mouth to have their catastrophe.

Originally posted by sonhouse
And besides, the supposed crash is coming from that comet that got eaten by the sun, and then word got out that some of it survived, which is entirely possible but the orbit of that comet is hyperbolic, and perpendicular to the entire planetary system including Earth so it can never get within 100 million miles, 160 million Km, to Earth. It is on a one way ...[text shortened]... ch of crap, all generated by religious nutters, frothing at the mouth to have their catastrophe.

I'm not totally convinced that this is a rehash of that single episode.

Partly because wild rumours like this happened many times before, and have happened since.

The 2.5km might come from that incident, but pretty much nothing else is the same.

Reading links about mentions of 'Comet' and 'September' brought up a game expansion release
with just the right dates. So it's even possible that that is the start of this particular wig-out... 😕

Originally posted by googlefudge
I'm not totally convinced that this is a rehash of that single episode.

Partly because wild rumours like this happened many times before, and have happened since.

The 2.5km might come from that incident, but pretty much nothing else is the same.

Reading links about mentions of 'Comet' and 'September' brought up a game expansion release
with ju ...[text shortened]... t the right dates. So it's even possible that that is the start of this particular wig-out... 😕

Jeez, release a game with the WORD comet in it, start a panic. Great. I told you the human race was stupid🙂

With crap like this coming up time after time, I wonder how in the hell did we ever make it to the moon? And I WORKED on it🙂

I, too, think this is hysteria and not really worth considering.

However, consider this (warning: devil's advocate argument incoming). If the government (any government) somehow finds out that the earth IS on a collision course with something as potentially devastating as a comet, do you think they'd advertise it? What could they do? What could WE do? Wouldn't they prepare themselves and just not tell anyone? No one wants to be responsible for the many deaths that would be caused by mass hysteria, and no one wants to turn humanity loose on each other, especially if it's known that on a certain date, it'll all be over. Strangely enough, the only reason I see anything like this 'getting out' is if it's not true.

A lot of people seem to think that, since the skies are open to all with a decent telescope and a computer, anyone could plot this thing's course. Certainly, if it were going to hit, the government database on the comet's orbit so far would be falsified so that it looks like it would just fly by. And other scientists looking at it would probably start by using already gathered data (not necessarily their own). By the time someone actually uses only their own observations (as science is supposed to do), it might be really, really too late.

It's just something to think about. After all, we have all the time in the world. 🙂

Originally posted by Suzianne
I, too, think this is hysteria and not really worth considering.

However, consider this (warning: devil's advocate argument incoming). If the government (any government) somehow finds out that the earth IS on a collision course with something as potentially devastating as a comet, do you think they'd advertise it? What could they do? What could WE do? ...[text shortened]... ate.

It's just something to think about. After all, we have all the time in the world. 🙂

Did you read my post???

NOBODY can POSSIBLY know that an asteroid or comet is on a direct collision course until its
WAY to late to cover it up. 'The government' finds out it's going to hit us the at the same time as
everyone else does.

Plus covering it up requires the complicity of basically every government and astronomer on the planet.

And the answer to "what could we do" is quite a lot actually.

Originally posted by Suzianne
I, too, think this is hysteria and not really worth considering.

However, consider this (warning: devil's advocate argument incoming). If the government (any government) somehow finds out that the earth IS on a collision course with something as potentially devastating as a comet, do you think they'd advertise it? What could they do? What could WE do? ...[text shortened]... ate.

It's just something to think about. After all, we have all the time in the world. 🙂

Really that was the focus of my question.

If one was to hit earth and cause such devastation, what would be the benefit of telling people?

Originally posted by Suzianne
However, consider this (warning: devil's advocate argument incoming). If the government (any government) somehow finds out that the earth IS on a collision course with something as potentially devastating as a comet, do you think they'd advertise it?

I think most governments would.

What could they do? What could WE do? Wouldn't they prepare themselves and just not tell anyone?
First you imply that nobody can do anything, then you say they would 'prepare themselves'. Which is it?

No one wants to be responsible for the many deaths that would be caused by mass hysteria,
I know that in many apocalyptic movies, everyone starts shooting each other, but real life is not like that. I doubt that there would be significant deaths from 'mass hysteria'.

and no one wants to turn humanity loose on each other,
If nobody wants that, then who is it that would turn on each other?

especially if it's known that on a certain date, it'll all be over.
What would you do if you knew it would be over on a certain date? Rob a bank? Shoot someone?

Originally posted by whodey
Really that was the focus of my question.

If one was to hit earth and cause such devastation, what would be the benefit of telling people?

Well given that there would be weeks, probably months, where the asteroid/comet would
be obviously visible to anyone with binoculars or even the naked eye before impact.
At which point it would be so far beyond possible to keep it secret that would come out for
an absolute certainty. At which point everyone also discovered that you kept it a secret and
so squandered any possibility of doing something about it...

At which point lynch mobs kill every government official on the planet.

So that's one reason to tell people.

Another reason is that "big enough to cause devastation" is still by no means necessarily big
enough to cause our extinction. And so even if you can't deflect it, then mitigating it's impact
is still a viable option. Including mass migrating people, food stockpiles, constructing massive
greenhouses with LED lighting powered and heated by nuclear reactors to provide food through
an asteroid winter... etc etc. All of which takes time, the more of which the better.

And, as I keep saying, we CAN do something about incoming asteroids and comets, because
we [unlike the dinosaurs] have a space program.

Originally posted by googlefudge
Well given that there would be weeks, probably months, where the asteroid/comet would
be obviously visible to anyone with binoculars or even the naked eye before impact.
At which point it would be so far beyond possible to keep it secret that would come out for
an absolute certainty. At which point everyone also discovered that you kept it a secret ...[text shortened]... g about incoming asteroids and comets, because
we [unlike the dinosaurs] have a space program.

We indeed can do something about incoming asteroids and such IF we have sufficient warning, which is why there are a lot of programs going on to monitor the goings on in our solar system 24/7. Anything big enough to threaten Earth can now be seen to be on a collision course years before it actually gets here. THOSE we can do something about.

The bad guys are those coming from outside the solar system, say rogue comets from interstellar space coming in on a fast track hyperbolic orbit that would be here and then gone for good. If one of those comes in, it would be going very fast, faster than the escape velocity of the entire solar system, that kind of thing is fortunately extremely rare and it would be just a throw of the dice as to what if anything it would actually collide with coming in like that. I'm sure stuff flies in from interstellar space all the time but 99.99999 percent of that kind of stuff never hits anything but gets flung out of the system completely.

Originally posted by whodey
Has anyone heard rumors of a giant comet due to hit earth in September this year? Are there any comet due to come close to earth during this time?

No, but I heard about certain gullible people who believe such rumours.

Originally posted by googlefudge
Well given that there would be weeks, probably months, where the asteroid/comet would
be obviously visible to anyone with binoculars or even the naked eye before impact.

No, not necessarily. Only comets with large tails announce themselves. The majority of near earth orbit asteroids remain undetected, and even large ones could easily sneek up on us without being spotted. I see no reason to think comets might be able to do the same.

The asteroid that struck Russia for example was totally unexpected. If it had been twice the size, it would probably still have remained undetected.

At which point lynch mobs kill every government official on the planet.
I highly doubt that. There have been very few lynch mobs in the past when governments get caught lying. Even major lies. As for secrecy, a significant proportion of people seem to support government secrecy.

Originally posted by sonhouse
Anything big enough to threaten Earth can now be seen to be on a collision course years before it actually gets here. THOSE we can do something about.

Err, no, we have not done a full survey yet. Not even close.

I admit this is from 2012:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/WISE/news/wise20120516.html
" So far, an estimated 20 to 30 percent of these objects have been found."

I also recommend you watch this:
YouTube

Originally posted by twhitehead
No, not necessarily. Only comets with large tails announce themselves. The majority of near earth orbit asteroids remain undetected, and even large ones could easily sneek up on us without being spotted. I see no reason to think comets might be able to do the same.

The asteroid that struck Russia for example was totally unexpected. If it had been twice ...[text shortened]... jor lies. As for secrecy, a significant proportion of people seem to support government secrecy.

We are talking about asteroids and comets so big that they are potential global killers that
could make us extinct.

That makes them multi-mile wide objects.

I highly doubt that. There have been very few lynch mobs in the past when governments get caught lying. Even major lies. As for secrecy, a significant proportion of people seem to support government secrecy.

How many instances of government secrecy have led to the extinction of our species... That you know of?


I think you are mistakenly thinking we are talking about any asteroid or comet strike, as opposed to specifically
an apocalyptically big one.

Of course a tiny asteroid or comet only a few tens on meters could sneak up on us.
It happens quite often.

However there is no sense or reason to cover up the discovery of such an object if you do spot it in advance.
Because you can absolutely do something about it.

If you can give people a warning to stay away from windows [or open them] and keep off the roads etc
at the time of impact, why on Earth wouldn't you???

Also objects that small can [with warning] absolutely be destroyed by nuclear weapons.

The suggested circumstance where governments might want to do a cover up is in the face of a catastrophe.
A planet killer, multi-mile wide 17 km/s apocalypse.


Those you can see coming.