It's the shaking of the earth that causes more energy to be released causing a chain reaction. More specifically the area affected is not the earth but the ring of fire. We have recently had three corners affected with two having the possibility of aftershocks and a forth corner Alaska yet to be affected. This hypothesis doesn't apply to small quakes as they would be more random.
Originally posted by PalynkaDon't give up yet Mr. Palynka until you have given it your BEST shot! If you do not even try then you will not even know... if you cannot predict the future then have a go at the past. What value goes before in a NON RANDOM example??
I give up. You "win".
Sum of Percent of energy of all significant quakes
Decade Total
1890 ?
1900 4.49% 5.8
1910 0.17% 2.3
1920 3.90% 2.9
1930 2.04% 2.8
1940 1.96% 2.9
1950 9.37% 9.7
1960 48.10% 47.4
1970 0.87% 1.9
1980 0.90% 0.8
1990 1.52% 1.8
2000 17.49% 13.4
2010 9.19% 8.3
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/[WORD TOO LONG].0&st_4=9.[WORD TOO LONG]
Originally posted by KostenuikLook, you don't know basic concepts of statistics. You don't know what a quantile is, what is the relationship between maxima and sample sizes, or any other that have been discussed. So defer to another (official) source.
Only two idiots trying to be he men. Gonna have a try without peeking? Follow the non random waves. 🙂.
I posted this one saying that earthquake activity is not getting bigger and that we don't know if a big one is going to hit.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?faqID=110
Are you going to find a reputable source saying the opposite?
Google: earthquakes getting stronger. Here, I've done it for you:
http://tinyurl.com/4kostenuik
Welcome to the crazy religious nut world.
Originally posted by PalynkaO.K. why dont you tell me what I say that disagrees with that link and then we can go from there.
Look, you don't know basic concepts of statistics. You don't know what a quantile is, what is the relationship between maxima and sample sizes, or any other that have been discussed. So defer to another (official) source.
I posted this one saying that earthquake activity is not getting bigger and that we don't know if a big one is going to hit.
http://e ...[text shortened]... e done it for you:
http://tinyurl.com/4kostenuik
Welcome to the crazy religious nut world.
Originally posted by Palynkayes they are
Edit - "the average number of large earthquakes per year is fairly constant"
what I may disagree with is large earthquakes will often follow other large earthquakes as in 8.7 +(read my examples) 1890-1910, 1950-1970, 2004-present
this one.
A temporal increase in earthquake activity does not mean that a large earthquake is about to happen. Similarly, quiescence, or the lack of seismicity, does not mean a large earthquake is going to happen.
Originally posted by KostenuikA reputable source. Still waiting.
yes they are
what I may disagree with is large earthquakes will often follow other large earthquakes as in 8.7 +(read my examples) 1890-1910, 1950-1970, 2004-present
this one.
A temporal increase in earthquake activity does not mean that a large earthquake is about to happen. Similarly, quiescence, or the lack of seismicity, does not mean a large earthquake is going to happen.
8.6 + Are they grouped together or are they random?
1897 6 12 11 6 Tsu * INDIA: ASSAM 26.000 91.000 33 8.7 *******
1897 9 20 19 6 * PHILIPPINES: NW MINDANAO: DAPITAN 6.000 122.000 33 8.6 ******
1897 9 21 5 12 Tsu * PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO, ZAMBOANGA, SULU, ISABELA 6.000 122.000 33 8.7 *******
1898 6 5 0 12 * JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU 38.000 143.000 60 8.7 *******
Date - UTC - Time Latitude Longitude Magnitude Fatalities Region
1902/06/11 05: 50.00 148.00 8.0 Sea of Okhotsk 1
1903/01/04 05:07 -20.00 -175.00 8.0 Tonga 1
1903/08/11 04:32 36.36 22.97 8.3 southern Greece 3
1905/07/09 09:40 49.0 99.0 8.4 Mongolia 4
1905/07/23 02:46 49.0 98.0 8.4 central Mongolia 4
1906/01/31 15:36 1.0 -81.5 8.8 1000 Colombia-Ecuador 16 ********
1906/08/17 00:40 -33.0 -72.0 8.2 3882 Valparaiso, Chile 2
1907/10/21 04:23 38.00 69.00 8.0 Afghanistan 1
1908/12/12 12:08 -14.0 -78.0 8.2 off the coast of central Peru 2
<34>
1911/06/15 14:26 28.0 130.0 8.1 12 Ryukyu Islands, Japan 1.5
1914/05/26 14:22 -2. 137. 8.0 West New Guinea 1
1915/05/01 05:00 47. 155. 8.0 Kurile Islands 1
1917/05/01 18:26 -29.0 -177.0 8.0 Kermadec Islands, New Zealand 1
1917/06/26 05:49 -15.0 -173.0 8.4 Tonga 4
1918/08/15 12:18 5.653 123.563 8.0 50 Celebes Sea 1
1918/09/07 17:16 45.5 151.5 8.2 Kuril Islands 2
1919/04/30 07:17 -19.823 -172.215 8.2 Tonga region 2
<13.5>
1920/06/05 04:21 23.5 122.0 8.0 Taiwan region 1
1920/09/20 14:39 -20.0 168.0 8.0 Loyalty Islands 1
1922/11/11 04:32 -28.553 -70.755 8.5 Chile-Argentina Border 5.5
1923/02/03 16:01 54.0 161.0 8.5 Kamchatka 5.5
1924/04/14 16:20 7.023 125.954 8.3 Mindanao, Philippines 3
1928/06/17 03:19 16.33 -96.7 8.0 Oaxaca, Mexico 1
<17>
1931/08/10 21:18 47.1 89.8 8.0 5 northern Xinjiang, China 1
1932/06/03 10:36 19.84 -103.99 8.1 Jalisco, Mexico 1.5
1933/03/02 17:31 39.22 144.62 8.4 2990 Sanriku, Japan 4
1934/01/15 08:43 27.55 87.09 8.1 10700 Bihar, India 1.5
1938/02/01 19:04 -5.05 131.62 8.5 Banda Sea 5.5
1938/11/10 20:18 55.33 -158.37 8.2 Shumagin Islands, Alaska 2
1939/04/30 02:55 -10.5 158.5 8.0 Solomon Islands 1
<16.5>
1940/05/24 16:33 -10.5 -77.0 8.2 near the Coast of central Peru 2
1941/11/25 18:03 37.171 -18.960 8.2 Azores-Cape St. Vincent Ridge 2
1942/08/24 22:50 -15.0 -76.0 8.2 30 Off the coast of central Peru 2
1943/04/06 16:07 -30.75 -72.0 8.2 18 off the coast of Coquimbo, Chile 2
1944/12/07 04:35 33.75 136.00 8.1 1223 Tonankai, Japan 1.5
1945/11/27 21:57 24.5 63.0 8.0 4000 off the coast of Pakistan 1
1946/04/01 12:28 52.75 -163.50 8.1 165 Unimak Islands, Alaska 1.5
1946/08/04 17:51 19.25 -69.00 8.0 100 Dominican Republic 1
1946/12/20 19:19 32.5 134.5 8.1 1330 Nankaido, Japan 1.5
1948/01/24 17:46 10.5 122.0 8.2 72 Panay, Philippines 1
1949/08/22 04:01 53.62 -133.27 8.1 Queen Charlotte Island, B.C., Canada 1.5
<17>
1950/08/15 14:09 28.5 96.5 8.6 1526 Assam-Tibet 8 ******
1952/03/04 01:22 42.5 143.0 8.1 31 Hokkaido, Japan region 1.5
1952/11/04 16:58 52.76 160.06 9.0 Kamchatka, Russia 33 **********
1957/03/09 14:22 51.56 -175.39 8.6 Andreanof Islands, Alaska 8 ******
1957/12/04 03:37 45.15 99.21 8.1 Gobi-Altai, Mongolia 1.5
1958/11/06 22:58 44.329 148.623 8.3 Kuril Islands 3
1959/05/04 07:15 53.351 159.645 8.2 1 near the east coast of Kamchatka 2
<57>
1960/05/22 19:11 -38.29 -73.05 9.5 1655 Chile 180 ***************
1963/10/13 05:17 44.9 149.6 8.5 Kuril Islands 5.5
1964/03/28 03:36 61.02 -147.65 9.2 125 Prince William Sound, Alaska 66 ************
1965/02/04 05:01 51.21 -178.50 8.7 Rat Islands, Alaska 11 *******
1966/10/17 21:41 -10.807 -78.684 8.1 125 near the coast of central Peru 1.5
1968/05/16 00:49 40.903 143.346 8.2 47 off the east coast of Honshu, Japan 2
1969/08/11 21:27 43.478 147.815 8.2 Kuril Islands 2
<278>
1970/07/31 17:08 -1.49 -72.56 8.0 Colombia 1
1971/01/10 07:17 -3.132 139.697 8.1 Papua, Indonesia 1.5
1974/10/03 14:21 -12.254 -77.524 8.1 78 near the coast of central Peru 1.5
1976/08/16 16:11 6.292 124.090 8.0 8000 Mindanao, Philippines 1
1977/06/22 12:08 -22.878 -175.900 8.1 Tonga region 1.5
1977/08/19 06:08 -11.085 118.464 8.3 100 south of Sumbawa, Indonesia 3
1979/12/12 07:59 1.598 -79.358 8.1 600 near the coast of Ecuador 1.5
<11>
1985/03/03 22:47 -33.135 -71.871 8.0 177 offshore Valparaiso, Chile 1
1985/09/19 13:17 18.190 -102.533 8.0 9500 Michoacan, Mexico 1
1986/05/07 22:47 51.520 -174.776 8.0 Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska 1
1989/05/23 10:54 -52.341 160.568 8.1 Macquarie Island region 1.5
<4.5>
1994/06/09 00:33 -13.841 -67.553 8.2 5 La Paz, Bolivia 2
1994/10/04 13:22 43.773 147.321 8.3 11 Kuril Islands 3
1995/07/30 05:11 -23.340 -70.294 8.0 3 Near Coast of Northern Chile 1
1995/10/09 15:35 19.055 -104.205 8.0 49 Near Coast of Jalisco, Mexico 1
1996/02/17 05:59 -0.891 136.952 8.2 166 Irian Jaya region, Indonesia 2
1998/03/25 03:12 -62.877 149.527 8.1 Balleny Islands region 1.5
<10.5>
2000/11/16 04:54 -3.980 152.169 8.0 2 New Ireland region, Papua New Guinea 1
2001/06/23 20:33 -16.264 -73.641 8.4 75 near the coast of southern Peru 4
2003/09/25 19:50 41.815 143.910 8.3 Hokkaido, Japan region 3
2004/12/23 14:59 -49.312 161.345 8.1 north of Macquarie Island 1.5
2004/12/26 00:58 3.295 95.982 9.1 227898 off the west coast of northern Sumatra 46 ***********
2005/03/28 16:09 2.074 97.013 8.6 1313 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 8 ******
2006/05/03 15:26 -20.187 -174.123 8.0 Tonga 1
2006/11/15 11:14 46.592 153.226 8.3 Kuril Islands 3
2007/01/13 04:23:21 46.243 154.524 8.1 East of the Kuril Islands 1.5
2007/04/01 20:39:58 -8.466 157.043 8.1 34 Solomon Islands 1.5
2007/08/15 23:40:57 -13.386 -76.603 8.0 650 Near the Coast of Central Peru 1
2007/09/12 11:10:26 -4.438 101.367 8.5 25 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia 5.5
2009/09/29 17:48:10 -15.489 -172.095 8.1 192 Samoa Islands region 1.5
<78.5>
2010/02/27 06:34:14 -35.846 -72.719 8.8 577 Offshore Maule, Chile 16 ********
2011/03/11 05:46:23 38.322 142.369 9.0 28050 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan 33 **********
<49>
Originally posted by KostenuikA reputable source confirming your interpretation. Still waiting.
8.6 + Are they grouped together or are they random?
1897 6 12 11 6 Tsu * INDIA: ASSAM 26.000 91.000 33 8.7 *******
1897 9 20 19 6 * PHILIPPINES: NW MINDANAO: DAPITAN 6.000 122.000 33 8.6 ******
1897 9 21 5 12 Tsu * PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO, ZAMBOANGA, SULU, ISABELA 6.000 122.000 33 8.7 *******
1898 6 5 0 12 * JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU 38.000 ...[text shortened]... 03/11 05:46:23 38.322 142.369 9.0 28050 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan 33 **********
<49>
4) Earthquake clustering and human psychology. While the average number of large earthquakes per year is fairly constant, earthquakes occur in clusters. This is predicted by various statistical models, and does not imply that earthquakes that are distant in location, but close in time, are causally related. But when such clusters occur, especially when they are widely reported in the media, they are noticed. However, during the equally anomalous periods during which no destructive earthquakes occur, no one deems this as remarkable
no one deems this as remarkable
I do. It is just as remarkable as the clusters that occur however I suspect their mindset isn't over each decade but data from month to month year to year. How can 2 lots of 40 years with ZERO earthquakes >8.5 not be remarkable as is the far smaller periods of about 10-15 years with MANY earthquakes. THIS IS not RANDOM! It's perfection.