Here's why you gotta take the bears. Very Interesting. At first, I though all Colts. Now I got it to be a close snap between the Bears and Colts, Bears to win. Here's why.
John Dewan is a nationally recognized sports statistician and is the subject of a story in today's Crain's Chicago Business. He has developed a formula for predicting the winner of the Super Bowl that is based on 12 categories. Each catogory by itself is accurate at predicting the winner 55% to 75% of the time, and when all 12 categories are combined, the formula has been accurate at predicting the winner 14 of the last 16
years. They are all based on regular season performance.
Here are the categories, in order from least accurate to most accurate:
1. Most rushing yards. Advantage Bears.
2. Most rushing yards per attempt. Advantage Colts.
3. Fewest opponents' net passing yards. Advantage Colts.
4. Most points scored. Tied @ 427 points.
5. Fewest opponents' yards per rush. Advantage Bears.
6. Fewest net passing yards by offense (sort of a backward statistic). Advantage Bears.
7. Fewest opponents' rushing yards. Advantage Bears, by a huge margin.
8. Best turnover differential. Advantage Bears, but only by 1 turnover.
9. Points differential overall. Advantage Bears.
10. Best regualr season record. Advantage Bears.
11. Fewest opponents' total yards. Advantage Bears.
12. Fewest points allowed. Advantage Bears.
Bears 9 1/2
Colts 2 1/2
As for category 12, the most accurate predictor of all, when the team with the advantage enjojed a differential of 50 or more points, it has won the Super Bowl 9 out of the last 9 times. This year's differential is 105 points.
Colts pickers, does that swerve your pick at least a bit or what? Go Colts, but I'm scared