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  1. Standard member mateulose
    Look, it's a title!
    04 Jan '05 06:38
    I'm going to go all out, risk total scrutiny and mockery, and claim for the first time ever, Ironman will finally lose a tourney, and this will be it, his time has come, lol!

    No seriously, and what makes me state this bold prediction? Simply, the time control nature of the tourney. It's a 60 day TB per game, no one measely move per certain day. Ironman is the best there is, but he simply spends a lot of time, IMHO, thinking each move throughly each game, this probably will not work in the 2005 champ tourney.

    Consider that your average chess game lasts about an average of 60 moves, that would mean you would have to move at least 1 move, each game, per day. Seeing that there are 25 games to be played simul each elimination round, that's 25 moves, right there, that should probably be played each day for minimum safety. Also considering is the fact, that a lot of games, especially beteewn good players, tend to have very long endgames that far exceed 60 moves, plus your basicly a human living your life, I doubt you can log on everyday, and there may be weeks that you become somewhat absent. All this considered, it's probably better that you play 2 moves a day, for each game to guarantee safety, that's 50 moves a day, right there, for the 2005 championship alone! (Not considering other left over tournies Ironman obviously has en masse)

    And if you spend, say, 2 minutes and 30 seconds on each of these 50 moves, that's over 2 hours a day, right there, that has to be donated daily to the 2005 championship alone, so thinking hours per move, is simply not feasable/possible. The time is tighter then people first think, it will become a factor towards the end of each game, and there will be auto-timeouts for sure.

    Very good players who move quickly, play several games with low time controls, and are not big time over-thinkers but just simply move like an OTB game, will have the advantage IMHO.

    One such player fits this discription well. I will not name his name quite yet and put my bets on him, there are still variables to consider. There are rumors going around that he may cheat, I honestly don't know if he does, so for now I'll say he doesn't. Once Russ gets out the mods, things may become, "clearer", and I'll put my bet on him depending on such a pending result. Another clue, he used to be top 3 in the site.

    Anyways, it's TRACKHEAD, I would bet on him, if he doesn't cheat. I honestly hope he doesn't, but as I said, I don't know and a lot of people think he does, but personally I'm geting a little tired of one player dominating the whole community unmolested (boring to a chess spectator and sports enthusiast like myself), so I hope Trackhead doesn't cheat and he can pull this off.
  2. Standard member shortgoth1
    Usually drunk
    04 Jan '05 07:29 / 1 edit
    I'll put a tenner on Ironman. Although Trackhead did give me my first (of many expected) loss of the tourney just few minutes before my first win. 60 days is plenty considering some games will be over quickly (one-sided crushes and people that simply move quickly, note my comment about having finished two games in less than 12 hours after my first move) and will allow plenty of time for the harder match-ups between strong people. I've no idea who's in the group along with Ironman, but if the spread there is the same as in the other groups I've seen so far, I doubt any of the strong/fast players will get into time trouble.
  3. Standard member mateulose
    Look, it's a title!
    04 Jan '05 08:06
    Originally posted by shortgoth1
    I'll put a tenner on Ironman. Although Trackhead did give me my first (of many expected) loss of the tourney just few minutes before my first win. 60 days is plenty considering some games will be over quickly (one-sided crushes and people that simply move quickly, note my comment about having finished two games in less than 12 hours after my first move) ...[text shortened]... her groups I've seen so far, I doubt any of the strong/fast players will get into time trouble.
    Time will not become a factor for Ironman through the first 1-3 rounds of stiffs and remote competition. Ironman will make it to the final elimination, and he will be undefeated, Trackhead will likely lose a few games, but all that doesn't matter, once you make it to the final, it doesn't matter how many previous games you won or if you never lost, you simply must play 25 games and win the final against a pile of elite players in less then 60 days, it's like hockey playoffs, past performances mean squat, and I'm going to take a huge risk and predict Trackhead "upsets" Ironman in this situation.

    Of course, I could just play it safe and predict Ironman myself, but where is the fun in that?

    BTW, does anyone else know any possible "darkhorses" that may surprise, would DustnRodgers be able to play well in this kinda tourney?
  4. Donation Quirine
    Tovenaar
    04 Jan '05 08:11 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by mateulose
    I'm going to go all out, risk total scrutiny and mockery, and claim for the first time ever, Ironman will finally lose a tourney, and this will be it, his time has come, lol!

    No seriously, and what makes me state this bold prediction? ...[text shortened]... elf), so I hope Trackhead doesn't cheat and he can pull this off.
    My bet is on David Tebb (regretfully I do not have time enough to have a serious go for the tournament win, though I will try of course). He moves fast and maintains a very high level of play. He certainly doesn't use an engine.

    Quirine
  5. Donation Quirine
    Tovenaar
    04 Jan '05 08:12
    Originally posted by mateulose
    Time will not become a factor for Ironman through the first 1-3 rounds of stiffs and remote competition. Ironman will make it to the final elimination, and he will be undefeated, Trackhead will likely lose a few games, but all that doesn't matter, once you make it to the final, it doesn't matter how many previous games you won or if you never lost, you s ...[text shortened]... "darkhorses" that may surprise, would DustnRodgers be able to play well in this kinda tourney?
    dustnrogers??? no way! he's far too weak to be a factor
  6. Standard member mateulose
    Look, it's a title!
    04 Jan '05 08:47
    Originally posted by Quirine
    My bet is on David Tebb (regretfully I do not have time enough to have a go for the tournament win, though I will try of course). He moves fast and maintains a very high level of play. He certainly doesn't use an engine.

    Quirine
    Tebb is pretty good, I was considering him, as he's one honorable dude, I'll bet on him if Trackhead gets the boot if he cheats.

    I said darkhorses, in no way do I think DusntRodgers has any chance of winning the whole friggin thing, a darkhorse is defined as a weak team/or player that pulls a lot of surprising upsets and pulls a few strings. The guy used to play like 1000 games and had a 1900 rating and led the MAP, that has to count for some darkhorse potential.
  7. Standard member shortgoth1
    Usually drunk
    04 Jan '05 09:29 / 5 edits
    Originally posted by mateulose
    Time will not become a factor for Ironman through the first 1-3 rounds of stiffs and remote competition. Ironman will make it to the final elimination, and he will be undefeated, Trackhead will likely lose a few games, but all that doesn in the final against a pile of elite players in less then 60 days.
    Is the final group going to be of twelve players? Perhaps I've got the way these tournaments work wrong, but I thought it was the winner of each group advances right?

    455 people currently in groups of 12 = 37 groups of 12 plus one group of 11 = 38 winners. Semi finals? Three more groups of ten and one of eleven perhaps, or similar

    And the final would be between the top four

    Three rounds is logical, since it means the longest possible tourney, assuming it goes right down to the last day in each round, of 360 days.

    So that's 9 games, not 25 for the final round. Granted, they're all going to be the best RHP has to offer, but I still don't see the time limit as being a factor. I don't know where you get the 25 from anyway, we're all playing 22 games in the first round (12 minus yourself times 2).

    Or it might be two groups of 14 for the semi final and 1 vs 1 for the final, even more logical.

    Many edits for typos and such - must get some sleep.
  8. Standard member flexmore
    Quack Quack Quack !
    04 Jan '05 09:49 / 7 edits
    if the group size is twelve in the second round then:

    455 in the first round
    becomes 38 in the second round
    becomes 4 or 5 in the final round.

    i think the obvious players to expect wonders from are, in this order:
    ironman31
    david tebb
    northern lad
    trackhead21

    with wildcards for
    chess slayer
    and any other all winning players.

    luckily, i don't think any of these players has each other in the first round.

    there are of course smany other very strong players in with a hope.

  9. Standard member mateulose
    Look, it's a title!
    04 Jan '05 10:10
    Oh man, you're right, there won't be many players in the final round, only 4-5 or so. I don't like that too much to be honest, I want to see a mass amount of 2000 plus players in the finals and make it a difficult marathon! How about introducing wild-card slots? Ie: 2nd place in each pool for round 2 advance? Would make the tourney more interesting and challenging, and allow some good players to have a few bad games without geting ousted immediately just because they lose a few early games.
  10. Standard member flexmore
    Quack Quack Quack !
    04 Jan '05 11:29 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by mateulose
    Oh man, you're right, there won't be many players in the final round, only 4-5 or so. I don't like that too much to be honest, I want to see a mass amount of 2000 plus players in the finals and make it a difficult marathon! How about i ...[text shortened]... eting ousted immediately just because they lose a few early games.
    lets see:

    455 becomes 38

    then 38 becomes 8 or 9

    that could work.

    (it would have been a whole lot easier to make the tournament seeded/original though)
  11. Standard member TRACKHEAD21
    Total Domination
    04 Jan '05 12:41
    according to smckinnon in the tournament I'm a loser who is only ranked 19th and have never been ranked 3rd on the site and suck to have my rating and not been able to beat him yet. Plus he feels our game could be considered either even or me down a bit positionally Game 874294
  12. Standard member Exy
    Damn fine Clan!
    04 Jan '05 12:50
    Without being able to see the groups it's hard to call!
  13. Standard member TRACKHEAD21
    Total Domination
    04 Jan '05 13:10
    Originally posted by mateulose
    I'm going to go all out, risk total scrutiny and mockery, and claim for the first time ever, Ironman will finally lose a tourney, and this will be it, his time has come, lol!

    No seriously, and what makes me state this bold prediction? Simply, the time control nature of the tourney. It's a 60 day TB per game, no one measely move per certain day. Ironma ...[text shortened]... and sports enthusiast like myself), so I hope Trackhead doesn't cheat and he can pull this off.
    Firstly, alot of people consists of boris and ummmm, boris lol. Also ironman can play more quickly than he does so I highly doubt that he will allow time to be a factor. Now, give me these time settings with a 7 or 14 day timebank then it would matter but with 2 months for each player I dont see many players getting timeouted out plus with this being the 2005 championship I would hope that in the finals no one would be lame enough to claim a timeout without PMing the person first and giving them a chance to make a move before the automatic loss 2 days after timebank is out. Wish I could see the pairings guessing not possible until round 2. Tebb,Ironman and I should be in the finals. From the people I saw in if its 5 in the finals the other 2 is a toss up. There's Gauvara or whatever his name is who is rated like 1300 but his engine had him up to 1900's I believe before he resigned all his games after someone said something about his engine use in the forums not sure if he is still using it but with this being a championship it wouldn't surprise me if he used it and wound up in the finals. I never got a good look at everyone who's in but I'm sure there are other engines as well. So, excluding any legit high rated players whom I don't know are in the tournament I'll say it will be me, Tebb, Ironman and 2 engines in the finals. There will be several draws and anyone could win it. Also, if I lost a game I doubt I would make it to the finals. With my current group I will be in the second round without a loss and most likely without any draws. From there I don't know what the next groups will look like. If there are ties in some groups the next rounds could be larger than at first expected and the same goes for the finals round it could quite possibly wind up being like 10 people because of ties.
  14. Standard member cludi
    Blogger
    04 Jan '05 20:50
    Originally posted by mateulose
    I'm going to go all out, risk total scrutiny and mockery, and claim for the first time ever, Ironman will finally lose a tourney, and this will be it, his time has come, lol!

    No seriously, and what makes me state this bold prediction? Simply, the time control nature of the tourney. It's a 60 day TB per game, no one measely move per certain day. Ironma ...[text shortened]... and sports enthusiast like myself), so I hope Trackhead doesn't cheat and he can pull this off.
    Ironman31 is actually more active this month than Trackhead21
    Ironman has made a massive 448 moves this month, Trackhead21 "only" 428! Both making more than 100 moves a day.
  15. Standard member GalaxyShield
    Mr. Shield
    04 Jan '05 21:23
    Is Akizy in this tourney? If so I think he would have a chance.e