Go back
2014 midterms = GOP comeback

2014 midterms = GOP comeback

Debates

Vote Up
Vote Down

Originally posted by AThousandYoung
Middle class professionals in the medical field are getting the Obamacare money because there is more demand for their services.
What has that to do with the midterms?

Vote Up
Vote Down

Ask Eladar. He asked me.

Vote Up
1
Vote Down

Originally posted by sh76
Barring something strange happening, it will be a good election for the GOP. They'll solidify the House and gain seats in the Senate. The only real question at this point is whether the Republicans will re-take the Senate. I'd put their chances right now at something like 45%.
Nate Silver just came out with his latest analysis: 60% change of a GOP Senate takeover.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/

1 edit
Vote Up
Vote Down

Let's remember the dismal performance of the people who predicted a Romney win.

EDIT - Never mind, looks like Nate Silver had that under control.

http://www.cnet.com/news/obamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants/

Vote Up
Vote Down

Originally posted by AThousandYoung
Let's remember the dismal performance of the people who predicted a Romney win.

EDIT - Never mind, looks like Nate Silver had that under control.

http://www.cnet.com/news/obamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants/
Predicting Presidential elections is much more a crap shoot, than guessing about midterm elections. The Party of the President almost always suffers losses, and the question is usually how bad the losses will be. That depends on the popularity of the particular President.

Vote Up
Vote Down

Originally posted by sh76
Nate Silver just came out with his latest analysis: 60% change of a GOP Senate takeover.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/
I don't see that number in the article which rates the Republicans as "slight favorites" to gain the six seats necessary. I doubt Nate would rate a 60-40 spread as "slight" but maybe I'm wrong.

Nate did a great job in 2008 but one he missed was Heitkamp's win in North Dakota.

Vote Up
Vote Down

Originally posted by no1marauder
I don't see that number in the article which rates the Republicans as "slight favorites" to gain the six seats necessary. I doubt Nate would rate a 60-40 spread as "slight" but maybe I'm wrong.

Nate did a great job in 2008 but one he missed was Heitkamp's win in North Dakota.
Here's the 60% clip:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/03/23/nate_silver_of_538_gop_has_60_chance_of_taking_the_senate_in_2014.html

(2:30)

He did miss a few Senate races in 2008 and 2012 and 50/50 is not as impressive as it sounds. Pretty much anyone who went solely based on the polls would have gotten at least 45 or 46. Silver himself downplayed his 50/50 feat in an article recently.

Silver's greatness, IMO, is not that he can predict things at any one point in time, but that he's developed a new paradigm in covering political events based on the numbers and objective data, as opposed to the traditional punditry which was based on trying to outguess or out analyze the other pundits based on intangibles and insight.