Originally posted by FMF
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13297573
The UK has voted overwhelmingly to reject changing the way MPs are elected - dealing a bitter blow to Nick Clegg on top of heavy Lib Dem poll losses.
Officials say 19.1m people voted in the second UK-wide referendum in history - a higher than expected turnout of 41%.
The final result put the Yes vote at 32. ...[text shortened]... =================
What could be the possible Lib Dem narrative arcs over the next 1-2 years?
The humiliation in the AV referendum (widely perceived as humiliation at the hands of their coalition partners) effectively takes away one of the legs of the narrative tripod the Lib Dems
hope will evolve before the 2015 General Election (it's difficult to see what major policy 'win' could eclipse this loss). Cameron may be inclined to throw them a bone or two as consolation prizes, but I doubt the 1922 Committee will be in a mood to agree to giving
more influence to a party that lost the referendum and took an absolute drubbing at the polls.
We've recently seen an attempt to get another of the legs underway, with the Lib Dem's beginning to speak of themselves as a moderating influence on the Tories. The coming debate on the stalled ('legislative pause', ahem) NHS reforms is probably the next interesting time ahead.
Not only have the Tories (who are, after all, historically pretty brilliant at the game of politics) have hung the LDs out to dry. In particular, Clegg has become, in the public imagination, utterly toxic; even if he
isn't a power-hungry charlatan, that sort of reputation is probably impossible to shift.
The long game gamble is for an economic upturn for which they can claim partial credit.
For my money, it won't work. The LDs will be reduced to a genuinely pathetic rump at the next election. Nick Clegg will likely lose his seat. Membership will collapse. It will take several elections (so, around a decade and a half) for them to recover.
Even more interesting is Scotland. It is almost certainly the case for Scotland that this is a more important result than 1997; whether it will be for the whole of the UK remains to be seen. The SNP won under a system explicitly designed to avoid majority governments (d'Hont), and implicitly designed to prevent an
SNP majority in particular, and now get to have their referendum. (My money is on a three-option referendum ballot paper.) Labour ran one of the worst political campaigns I have ever witnessed, and the SNP one of the best.
Interesting again is that the
overall narrative in UK politics at the moment
pretty much ignores Labour. In Scotland, where there is a Labour story, it's a catastrophic defeat (actually at least on a par with the LD situation at Westminster), and that's as much news as they've mustered in
months.