Originally posted by FMF
If Perot had been of a mind to accept the VP slot on the major party ticket - I am not claiming he would have - do you reckon he would have thrown his hat in with Clinton or Bush Sr ?
I guess perhaps Bush, but it's always dangerous to assume that if not for candidate X, Y% of his voters would have voted for Candidate Z. People who vote for third party candidates are usually not enthralled with either candidate and it's not quite predictable whether or for whom they would have voted were it not for the 3rd party candidate.
A detailed analysis of voting demographics revealed that Perot's support drew heavily from across the political spectrum, with 20% of his votes coming from self-described liberals, 27% from self-described conservatives, and 53% coming from self-described moderates.
7% of the Perot vote would have have been enough to swing the election to Bush.
Even the one seemingly clear example in history of the "spoiler" (Nader in 2000) is a little murky when you really crunch the numbers.
And even to the extent that Nader was the "spoiler" in 2000, it was only because of the fluke of how exceptionally close Florida was in 2000.