Originally posted by zeeblebotPure BS. No study has ever shown that changes in a police force affect the crime rate; that's like saying more accurate weatherman will cause less tornados. Politicians like to take credit for all kinds of things that they have no control over, esp. a politician with national aspirations. Levitt's premise requires someone to come along and explain the data in a manner inconsistent with his conclusion, not merely someone with a political axe to grind.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ucjl/20050613/cm_ucjl/giulianislegacyisagreatandsafernewyork;_ylt=AiRyk6eXjKpJc64dlYeeAZX9wxIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
GIULIANI'S LEGACY IS A GREAT AND SAFER NEW YORK
By John Leo
Sun Jun 12, 8:12 PM ET
...
"In addition, Bratton and Giuliani brilliantly reorganized the city's outstanding police force, and th ...[text shortened]... me, presumably because it had no Giuliani, no Bratton, and no police force like New York's."
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Originally posted by no1marauderNo1: "that's like saying more accurate weatherman will cause less tornados."
Pure BS. No study has ever shown that changes in a police force affect the crime rate; that's like saying more accurate weatherman will cause less tornados. Politicians like to take credit for all kinds of things that they hav ...[text shortened]... his conclusion, not merely someone with a political axe to grind.
The usual Mauraudian strawman, absolutely ridiculous.
Originally posted by zeeblebotGive a link that actually compares the crime rates in Philly and New York City and we'll talk; right now all I have is an assertion by a columnist without any facts to support it. By contrast, Levitt supports his conclusions with published data. Whether anybody on this site "seconds" my FULL statement i.e. that no study has shown any link between the size and/or composition of a police force and a drop in the crime rate doesn't concern me a bit; check out a first year text in Criminal Justice and they'll give you the same information.
no1maurader's interesting proposition is that the police force is to the crime rate as weathermen are to tornadoes. who will second that?
if leavitt's premise is true, why didn't the crime rate drop at the same rate in philadelphia and new york?
Ivanhoe, again you don't know what a "strawman" argument is.
Originally posted by zeeblebotPremise?... you and Ivan are having a hard time seperating beliefs from data. Morality, is how each of us would like to the world to work, while economics, derived from data, measures how the world actually does work.
no1maurader's interesting proposition is that the police force is to the crime rate as weathermen are to tornadoes. who will second that?
if leavitt's premise is true, why didn't the crime rate drop at the same rate in philadelphia and new york?
It is fruitful to sometimes look at the world *divorced* of your own emotions and faith.
Originally posted by zeeblebotWell, what is "the crime rate"? Is it the rate at which people break the law, or the rate at which people break the law and get caught? The records we have of crime rates in the past reflect the latter.
no1maurader's interesting proposition is that the police force is to the crime rate as weathermen are to tornadoes. who will second that?
if leavitt's premise is true, why didn't the crime rate drop at the same rate in philadelphia and new york?
Actually, the comparison between Philadelphia and New York City strongly supports Levitt's thesis. Go to: http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/state_ab_pt.html
and compare the abortion rate in the 70's between New York and Pennslyvania. New York is a high abortion rate state approaching 50 abortions per 1,000 woman aged 15-44. Pennslyvania, by contrast, has always been below the national rate with about half the rate as New York. Thus, it would be anticipated by Levitt's theory that crime rates in New York would decline faster in the 1990's than they would in Pennslyvania. And this is EXACTLY what happened. Score one for Levitt.
Originally posted by xswhat? how do you know any of that?
Premise?... you and Ivan are having a hard time seperating beliefs from data. Morality, is how each of us would like to the world to work, while economics, derived from data, measures how the world actually does work.
It is fruitful to sometimes look at the world *divorced* of your own emotions and faith.
Originally posted by no1marauderNew York, NY is a city. Philadelphia is a city. your graphs are for New York and Pennsylvania, the states.
Actually, the comparison between Philadelphia and New York City strongly supports Levitt's thesis. Go to: http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/state_ab_pt.html
and compare the abortion rate in the 70's between New York and Pennslyvania. New York is a high abortion rate state approaching 50 abortions per 1,000 woman aged 15-44. Pennslyvania, b ...[text shortened]... 990's than they would in Pennslyvania. And this is EXACTLY what happened. Score one for Levitt.
i think if we check back on this a year from now, Leavitt's hypothesis will be reduced to a factor rather than the Newly Discovered Answered to Crime Rates In America !!! if it's not disproved. i guess a lot of people would love to say that crime rate reduction has nothing to do with police presence.
Originally posted by zeeblebotDon't be stupid; the vast majority of abortions in New York state are done in NYC (the rest of the state is mostly like Kansas); ditto the crime. Levitt's thesis works with the data; just admit it. Please produce ONE study that unequivocally says increased police presence leads to crime rate reduction; I can't find one. Bear in mind that NYC has had a large police force for well over a century and the crime rate has fluctuated without regard to the numbers of police. I find it highly unlikely that ANY short term changes that Guiliani and Bratton made caused an immediate and sharp reduction in crime; if they did it would be a first in American history. Facts, please.
New York, NY is a city. Philadelphia is a city. your graphs are for New York and Pennsylvania, the states.
i think if we check back on this a year from now, Leavitt's hypothesis will be reduced to a factor rather than the Newly Discovered Answered to Crime Rates In America !!! if it's not disproved. i guess a lot of people would love to say that crime rate reduction has nothing to do with police presence.