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Earl's Hispanic Squad

Earl's Hispanic Squad

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They were headlining a "seismic shift" of Hispanics to Republicans as part of the coming "Red Wave". https://www.redhotpawn.com/forum/debates/hispanics-shifting-red-for-2022-midterms.193628

2 out of 3 lost Tuesday. Earl was especially crowing about Mayra Flores:

"Mayra Flores wins special election to turn Texas House seat Republican"!

I was skeptical:

"It was a special election with the winner serving until January, 2023 and only 29,000 voters turned out. In 2020, the Democratic incumbent won by almost 14 points and 200,000 votes were cast. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_34th_congressional_district

The incumbent resigned to make more money in a law firm earlier this year (https://www.texastribune.org/2022/03/24/filemon-vela-resign/) but in the general Flores will have to face Victor Gonzalez, who's already in the House but who's hometown got redistricted into Flores' district. Chances are, he'll win handily."

Well as my Con Law professor used to say "Who's right and who's wrong"? Look for yourself:

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/11/08/vicente-gonzalez-mayra-flores-texas-34/

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To be fair, Republicans did do a little bit better among Latinos this year than in 2020. In that year, Democrats won their vote in House races by 63% to 36%; this year it was 60% to 39%. https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/house/national-results

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house/0

Maybe Earl thinks a three point move in exit polls signals a "seismic shift".

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