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Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    27 Apr '11 00:47
    Are pretty rosy in their predictions of the immediate future: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42768270/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

    Agree or disagree?
  2. Subscriber AThousandYoung
    Poor Filipov :,(
    27 Apr '11 01:01 / 1 edit
    Agree. Like I predicted way back when, 8% unemployment before 2012.

    EDIT The article says 8.4% by December. That's cutting my prediction really close.
  3. Standard member Palynka
    Upward Spiral
    27 Apr '11 01:46
    I wonder how many of them pulled numbers out of their behind and how many have done proper forecasting. I bet the answer would be embarrassing. The interpretation of the journalist also doesn't help because it hides the diversity of opinions.

    For example, go here:
    http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_business/ap_economic_survey/index.html
    Click broader economy and then in "Choose and economist" pick "view all responses". There's even a 5% "prediction" for the last quarter of 2010 made in January 2011 and not a lot of clustering around the mean.

    I think that the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections which should soon be out with the upcoming FOMC meeting will be a more serious base to discuss this, compared to this particular survey.
  4. 27 Apr '11 09:01
    These predictions precise to a tenth of a percent always amuse me. Not a snowball's chance in hell that economists can predict fourth quarter growth this accurately.
  5. Standard member Palynka
    Upward Spiral
    27 Apr '11 09:27 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    These predictions precise to a tenth of a percent always amuse me. Not a snowball's chance in hell that economists can predict fourth quarter growth this accurately.
    Well, they weren't asked for posteriors (or intervals) but for a point forecast. The press wants quantitative point forecasts and qualitative description of posteriors (uncertain environment=high posterior variance, risk of double dip-skewed distribution with a fat tail, etc.).
  6. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    28 Apr '11 18:25
    Originally posted by Palynka
    I wonder how many of them pulled numbers out of their behind and how many have done proper forecasting. I bet the answer would be embarrassing. The interpretation of the journalist also doesn't help because it hides the diversity of opinions.

    For example, go here:
    http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_business/ap_economic_survey/index.html
    Click b ...[text shortened]... eeting will be a more serious base to discuss this, compared to this particular survey.
    At his press conference, Bernanke unveiled projections on inflation, growth and unemployment which were all within the ranges of what the survey gave.
  7. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    28 Apr '11 18:27
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    These predictions precise to a tenth of a percent always amuse me. Not a snowball's chance in hell that economists can predict fourth quarter growth this accurately.
    Predictions are always +/-; you have a range in mind, so you predict something in the middle of that range. If you're close, that's tantamount to being "right."

    That's true whether you're predicting economic growth, the weather or number of wins a baseball team is going to achieve this year.
  8. 28 Apr '11 19:24
    Originally posted by sh76
    Predictions are always +/-; you have a range in mind, so you predict something in the middle of that range. If you're close, that's tantamount to being "right."

    That's true whether you're predicting economic growth, the weather or number of wins a baseball team is going to achieve this year.
    The range is actually of great importance.
  9. Subscriber AThousandYoung
    Poor Filipov :,(
    28 Apr '11 19:25
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    The range is actually of great importance.
    Yeah; in science, 8.4 implies +/- 0.1.
  10. Standard member bill718
    Enigma
    29 Apr '11 11:19
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Are pretty rosy in their predictions of the immediate future: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42768270/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

    Agree or disagree?
    I'd say somewhere in between. Things are improving, but these economists are a bit optimistic I think.