Fauci's Pessimism

The post that was quoted here has been removed

Influenza is a poor example because it undergoes genetic reassortment.

@athousandyoung said
Influenza is a poor example because it undergoes genetic reassortment.

As may the novel coronavirus if it has a reservoir in a nonhuman species, which currently is unknown.

Even a virus that does not exhibit reassortment capabilities but nonetheless is prevalent in another species can defeat herd immunity.

@soothfast said
As may the novel coronavirus if it has a reservoir in a nonhuman species, which currently is unknown.

Even a virus that does not exhibit reassortment capabilities but nonetheless is prevalent in another species can defeat herd immunity.

What viruses do that?

@athousandyoung said
What viruses do that?

Well, lots of viruses, like the one that causes rabies, are carried only in animal populations. Thus if, theoretically, 90% of the human population somehow had an immunity to the rabies virus, that wouldn't at all help anyone in the 10% who got bitten by an infected animal.

EDIT: In other words there's often the problem of having a virus being prevalent in multiple "herds" -- different species, that is.

@soothfast said
Well, lots of viruses, like the one that causes rabies, are carried only in animal populations. Thus if, theoretically, 90% of the human population somehow had an immunity to the rabies virus, that wouldn't at all help anyone in the 10% who got bitten by an infected animal.

I mean viruses that can be transmitted from human to human. Technically I suppose humans could spread it by biting each other. I think Ebola is an example of what you describe.

@soothfast said
As may the novel coronavirus if it has a reservoir in a nonhuman species, which currently is unknown.

Even a virus that does not exhibit reassortment capabilities but nonetheless is prevalent in another species can defeat herd immunity.

The coronavirus cannot be a bad example for itself.

The common cold is possibly the best example. Some versions are coronaviruses and nobody has cured it or developed a vaccine.

However SARS-1 DOES have a vaccine.

@athousandyoung said
The coronavirus cannot be a bad example for itself.

The common cold is possibly the best example. Some versions are coronaviruses and nobody has cured it or developed a vaccine.

However SARS-1 DOES have a vaccine.

A vaccine could theoretically be developed against maybe a small handful of viruses that cause the symptoms associated with the "common cold," but I think I heard somewhere that there are hundreds of viruses that cause a cold, and since colds are generally not fatal or debilitating, it's just not worth anyone's time and resources trying to find a universal vaccine. It would have to be a yearly shot, too, since the viruses mutate constantly.

But anyway, yeah, since humans don't generally bite each other, rabies doesn't spread among them. You'd get it from a woodland critter, a bat, or some redneck's feral mutt.

Viruses that thrive in different species, like influenza thrives in birds, swine, and humans, I think usually have reassortment potential. This defeats herd immunity for humans. Viruses that thrive in a single animal population that humans have contact with a lot perhaps don't have reassortment potential, but because the virus will always be alive and well in the animal population it may also foil prospects for human herd immunity.

It's still not known for sure whether a lasting vaccine can be devised for Covid-19, I think precisely because it's still not known whether the novel coronavirus has significant reassortment potential. I'm still guardedly optimistic, though it may be necessary for any vaccine to be updated yearly like the flu shot.

I'm not a virologist, but it is interesting stuff.

@athousandyoung said
The coronavirus cannot be a bad example for itself.

The common cold is possibly the best example. Some versions are coronaviruses and nobody has cured it or developed a vaccine.

However SARS-1 DOES have a vaccine.

I'm not aware of there being a vaccine for SARS-CoV-1, at least for humans.

This is interesting to read:
https://theconversation.com/[WORD TOO LONG]

In particular:

What about a SARS vaccine? Vaccine studies for SARS-CoV-1 were started and tested in animal models. An inactivated whole virus was used in ferrets, nonhuman primates and mice. All of the vaccines resulted in protective immunity, but there were complications; the vaccines resulted in an immune disease in animals. No human studies were done, nor were the vaccine studies taken further because the virus disappeared.

Ooh. Immune diseases presented in some animals during vaccine testing. Well that's not good.

But having looked through the article, I think I'm beginning to understand why Trump is wishing, hoping, and praying, to this day, that Covid-19 will "disappear soon." He's been saying it since February, but perhaps he got the notion from the experience with SARS-CoV-1 years ago. What an idiot.