Originally posted by no1marauderThere isn't as much strategic voting in the first round of the French presidential elections, that is usually reserved for the second round. In US elections people often reluctantly vote for a main party candidate because they feel their favoured third party/independent candidate has no chance of winning, but they might still say they will vote for the independent in opinion polls.
In the US the opposite is usually true at least up until the last stages of the campaign. Third party candidates with some strength seem to do better in the polls than they do on Election Night.
I would think that the polls are presently understating how many of Le Pen's voters will wind up voting for Sarkozy; there's always a "hold your nos ...[text shortened]... nch workers. To a smaller extent, they are a part of the Tea Party movement in the US.
The votes for Le Pen have little to do with economic uncertainty, although Euroscepticism and fear of Eastern European immigrants "taking our jobs" play a role. But mostly the voters are just racist scum, it's the same with Lega Nord/Freedom Party/Vlaams Belang/True Finns etc. etc.
Originally posted by KazetNagorraSo your explanation for the record vote for La Pen is that there are more "racist scum" in France these days then there used to be?
There isn't as much strategic voting in the first round of the French presidential elections, that is usually reserved for the second round. In US elections people often reluctantly vote for a main party candidate because they feel their favoured third party/independent candidate has no chance of winning, but they might still say they will vote for the ...[text shortened]... t racist scum, it's the same with Lega Nord/Freedom Party/Vlaams Belang/True Finns etc. etc.
A most persuasive "analysis". Even if that is the extent of your "reasoning" you might try and puzzle out why this is so.
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Originally posted by no1marauderNo, at least not significantly more so compared to the previous election, but they may have voted for someone else the last time (e.g. Sarkozy), or stayed at home. Some may have been disillusioned with Sarkozy, who wooed racist voters in 2007 with vague promises of anti-immigrant policies.
So your explanation for the record vote for La Pen is that there are more "racist scum" in France these days then there used to be?
A most persuasive "analysis". Even if that is the extent of your "reasoning" you might try and puzzle out why this is so.
Originally posted by KazetNagorraThe number of unemployed in France has reached a 12 year high. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-01/french-unemployment-rate-jumps-as-economy-stalls-on-euro-crisis.html
No, at least not significantly more so compared to the previous election, but they may have voted for someone else the last time (e.g. Sarkozy), or stayed at home. Some may have been disillusioned with Sarkozy, who wooed racist voters in 2007 with vague promises of anti-immigrant policies.
Could you possibly entertain in your mind the thought that some people who are concerned about the fact that France can't even provide enough jobs for the people who live there now might want to restrict further immigration without them being "racist scum"?
Originally posted by no1marauderSure, I can entertain that thought...
The number of unemployed in France has reached a 12 year high. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-01/french-unemployment-rate-jumps-as-economy-stalls-on-euro-crisis.html
Could you possibly entertain in your mind the thought that some people who are concerned about the fact that France can't even provide enough jobs for the people who live there now might want to restrict further immigration without them being "racist scum"?
But no, that's not it. They're just racist scum.
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Originally posted by no1marauderI would think that the polls are presently understating how many of Le Pen's voters will wind up voting for Sarkozy; there's always a "hold your nose" factor involved when there are only two candidates. Even if Le Pen doesn't endorse Sarkozy, I think he'll get more than 2/3 of those votes as he has done in previous elections.
The increased votes for Le Pen are a result of the economic disaster and upheaval that ever increasing trends towards "globalization" and "free trade" are causing among French workers. To a smaller extent, they are a part of the Tea Party movement in the US.
I think these two hypotheses contradict each other. Sarkozy is the more pro-capitalist, pro-European candidate, so if you are right (a plausible theory, in my opinion) that "The increased votes for Le Pen are a result of the economic disaster and upheaval that ever increasing trends towards 'globalization' and 'free trade' are causing among French workers", then there's little reason for most of her supporters to gravitate to Sarkozy.
Here's a couple of paragraphs from an article from The Guardian along the same lines:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/23/french-election-marine-le-pen-voters
What Le Pen's voters now choose to do is crucial in the 6 May final runoff between Hollande and Sarkozy. It has made the race tense and less predictable. The president needs Le Pen's voters to massively line up behind him if he is to have a chance at re-election. But it is not certain they will. A large part of Le Pen's voters are anti-Sarkozy and fiercely opposed to what they see as a lack of principles in the French political elite. "I can't bring myself to vote Sarkozy, he's lied so much, he stole Le Pen's ideas then let us all down," Alain said.
Pollsters divide on what portion of Le Pen's supporters would vote Sarkozy in a second round. Some say around half, with one-quarter abstaining and one-quarter voting Hollande. Le Pen, who will hold a rally in Paris next week for the party's annual May day and Joan of Arc memorial celebrations, is unlikely to push her voters to support Sarkozy. Her attacks on the president are scathing and she sees him as a busted flush, placing herself at the heart of drives to rebuild the French right after Sarkozy "implodes" at the election.
The opinion polls for the first round conducted within the last week of the campaign were accurate to within a few percentage points; Le Pen was never credited with less than 14% support; Sarkozy had between 25 and 28; Hollande between 27 and 30. The same opinion polls are now predicting a second-round lead of between six and nine points for Hollande.
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Originally posted by TeinosukeIn 2007, Sarkozy got 70% of National Front voters in the runoff. He has been quick to pander to them this time:
[/b]I would think that the polls are presently understating how many of Le Pen's voters will wind up voting for Sarkozy; there's always a "hold your nose" factor involved when there are only two candidates. Even if Le Pen doesn't endorse Sarkozy, I think he'll get more than 2/3 of those votes as he has done in previous elections.
The increased votes for g a second-round lead of between six and nine points for Hollande.
Sarkozy responded to Le Pen's record showing by immediately promising a greater focus on tightening border controls and stopping factories leaving France. On Monday, he hammered home pledges to get tough on immigration and crime.
"National Front voters must be respected," he told reporters as he left his campaign headquarters in Paris. "They voiced their view. It was a vote of suffering, a crisis vote. Why insult them? I have heard Mr. Hollande criticizing them."
Expect more of the same, said Christopher Bickerton, associate professor of international relations at Sciences Po university.
"Sarkozy talked about economic protectionism in his speech last night and his strategy for the next fortnight will be to push the same themes and use reassuring language for the 20 percent who voted Le Pen," he said.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47142750#.T5XumdkrLms
Originally posted by TeinosukeI didn't follow the French elections so I can't say that there was any media bias over there, but Sarkozy seems to think so.
Firstly, any predictions of who will win the first round and then the second round of the French presidential election? Will it be Hollande as most polls predict or will Sarkozy confound expectations?
Secondly, this election is notable for strong showings in opinion polls not only from the candidates for the main centre-left and centre-right parties, b ...[text shortened]... evidence of a healthily broad range of representative political opinion, or c) something else?
What do you think?
Originally posted by no1marauderEven Sarkozy's first-round vote plus the entire Front National first-round vote wouldn't be enough for outright victory. We can assume Hollande will take almost all of the 11% who voted for Melenchon. If Hollande gets 30% of FN voters and Sarkozy 70%, that gives Hollande 45% to Sarkozy's 40%. The left-wing minor candidates, Cheminade, Joly, Poutou and Artaud, between then took 4.25% of the vote; we can assume their votes will go overwhelming to Hollande. There's one right-of-centre candidate, the Gaullist Dupont-Aignon, and his votes will go to Sarkozy; but he got less that 2%, so this would still give Hollande 49% to Sarkozy's 42%.
In 2007, Sarkozy got 70% of National Front voters in the runoff. He has been quick to pander to them this time:
Sarkozy responded to Le Pen's record showing by immediately promising a greater focus on tightening border controls and stopping factories leaving France. On Monday, he hammered home pledges to get tough on immigration and crime.
"Nationa ...[text shortened]... percent who voted Le Pen," he said.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47142750#.T5XumdkrLms
Accordingly, Hollande would only have to take one in nine of the centrist Bayrou voters to win the election. I think the maths is looking pretty good for him.
Originally posted by TeinosukeIt's been shown time after time in election after election that the idea that all or almost all of one candidate's votes will automatically go to another candidate just because they have somewhat similar ideologies is fallacious. MI think Sarkozy win will a significant portion, perhaps a quarter of the Melenchon and other left wing party votes (and many won't vote). Redo the math with that assumption and all he has to do is win a decent plurality of the centrist vote and he wins. I expect that is what will happen.
Even Sarkozy's first-round vote plus the entire Front National first-round vote wouldn't be enough for outright victory. We can assume Hollande will take almost all of the 11% who voted for Melenchon. If Hollande gets 30% of FN voters and Sarkozy 70%, that gives Hollande 45% to Sarkozy's 40%. The left-wing minor candidates, Cheminade, Joly, Poutou and Arta ...[text shortened]... ntrist Bayrou voters to win the election. I think the maths is looking pretty good for him.
Originally posted by no1marauderThe problem is that many of the Melenchon et. al voters despise Sarkozy. They may not like Hollande either, but a very large portion of them will vote Hollande in round two for the same reason as the likes of whodey, sleepyguy and uther will vote Romney.
It's been shown time after time in election after election that the idea that all or almost all of one candidate's votes will automatically go to another candidate just because they have somewhat similar ideologies is fallacious. MI think Sarkozy win will a significant portion, perhaps a quarter of the Melenchon and other left wing party votes (and many ...[text shortened]... s win a decent plurality of the centrist vote and he wins. I expect that is what will happen.
Originally posted by no1marauderFair enough, but beyond all the mathematical hypotheses that I put forward, there remains the simple, glaring fact that every opinion poll conducted since the first round has given Hollande a lead of between six and twelve percentage points. Despite your claims that they were inaccurate, the last pre-first round polls got the votes for the two main candidates right to within a percentage point or so, and only erred by a couple of points up and down respectively regarding Melenchon and Le Pen. Of course a week is a long time in politics, and obviously Sarkozy will be doing his best to court the FN vote; but if these poll figures are maintained, then a Sarkozy victory would be a Dewey Defeats Truman moment.
It's been shown time after time in election after election that the idea that all or almost all of one candidate's votes will automatically go to another candidate just because they have somewhat similar ideologies is fallacious. I think Sarkozy win will a significant portion, perhaps a quarter of the Melenchon and other left wing party votes (and many w ...[text shortened]... s win a decent plurality of the centrist vote and he wins. I expect that is what will happen.