21 Apr 12
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Firstly, any predictions of who will win the first round and then the second round of the French presidential election? Will it be Hollande as most polls predict or will Sarkozy confound expectations?
Secondly, this election is notable for strong showings in opinion polls not only from the candidates for the main centre-left and centre-right parties, but also from a centrist without much party backing, a far-right anti-immigrant candidate and a far-left socialist firebrand. Is this situation a) a sign of France's desperation and disillusionment with established parties, b) evidence of a healthily broad range of representative political opinion, or c) something else?
21 Apr 12
Originally posted by TeinosukeIt's a sign of disillusionment with the neoliberal new world order and their program of perpetual austerity.
Firstly, any predictions of who will win the first round and then the second round of the French presidential election? Will it be Hollande as most polls predict or will Sarkozy confound expectations?
Secondly, this election is notable for strong showings in opinion polls not only from the candidates for the main centre-left and centre-right parties, b ...[text shortened]... evidence of a healthily broad range of representative political opinion, or c) something else?
21 Apr 12
Originally posted by TeinosukeIt seems to be the case that France has always had vocal extremists vying for political office with, relatively speaking with regards to say Britain, significant popular support. If I recall correctly, Marine Le Pen was polling in 2nd place at some point.
Firstly, any predictions of who will win the first round and then the second round of the French presidential election? Will it be Hollande as most polls predict or will Sarkozy confound expectations?
Secondly, this election is notable for strong showings in opinion polls not only from the candidates for the main centre-left and centre-right parties, b ...[text shortened]... evidence of a healthily broad range of representative political opinion, or c) something else?
I would say however that the burgeoning prominence of Melenchon is indeed reflective of widespread dissatisfaction with capitalism and the market's distorting and corrupting influence on the political process. Melenchon champions some proposals which Im sure many would endorse in principle, but I don't think they are very palatable to a sober electorate aware of how rhetoric and practical politics don't always sucessfully converge. I think that ultimately Melenchon's votes will go to François Hollande, and although he doesn't strike me as particularly radical or charismatic, I think its likely he'll be elected.
21 Apr 12
Originally posted by generalissimoDoes "practical politics" always coincide with the elite agenda, in your opinion?
It seems to be the case that France has always had vocal extremists vying for political office with, relatively speaking with regards to say Britain, significant popular support. If I recall correctly, Marine Le Pen was polling in 2nd place at some point.
I would say however that the burgeoning prominence of Melenchon is indeed reflective of widespr ...[text shortened]... n't strike me as particularly radical or charismatic, I think its likely he'll be elected.
21 Apr 12
Originally posted by rwingettNo, far from it, but electorates assume it to be the case sometimes.
Does "practical politics" always coincide with the elite agenda, in your opinion?
The Conservatives in Britain were elected on this premise, that its proposals were fiscally responsible and would deliver economic growth. I assume that many of those voting for Sarkozy do so following a similar logic.
The greatest tool the financial elites have at their disposal is the myth of the free market, that as long as governments genuflect to the rich with policies that advance their interests, economic growth will be secured. Now, while I personally sympathize with Melenchon, Im aware of the persistence of this myth in Western society, and I think that's why he won't win. François Holland is the compromise solution, preferrable to Sarkozy or Le Pen.
22 Apr 12
It seems that while Hollande won a plurality over Sarkozy, Le Pen got almost 20 percent finishing far ahead of Melenchon. http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/22/11331803-sarkozy-hollande-advance-in-french-vote-far-rights-le-pen-gets-20-percent?lite
I'd say it looks unlikely that Hollande can win the runoff given those totals.
23 Apr 12
Originally posted by no1marauderI'm getting my info from Dutch-language sources, so apologies for the lack of links, but I'm getting the impression the race isn't run yet. In the past, Le Pen has always advised her supporters not to vote for Sarkozy. The question will be if she does that now and how many of her supporters will follow that advice. Expectation is that about 50% of LePen supporters will vote Sarkozy in the next round, with some going to Hollande. Melenchon on the other hand has already pledged his support to Hollande, so Hollande is likely to get a large part of his votes. At the moment, polls are showing Hollande leading 54-46 in a head-to-head race.
It seems that while Hollande won a plurality over Sarkozy, Le Pen got almost 20 percent finishing far ahead of Melenchon. http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/22/11331803-sarkozy-hollande-advance-in-french-vote-far-rights-le-pen-gets-20-percent?lite
I'd say it looks unlikely that Hollande can win the runoff given those totals.
23 Apr 12
Originally posted by BartsI assume those are the same polls that said Melenchon would finish well ahead of Le Pen.
I'm getting my info from Dutch-language sources, so apologies for the lack of links, but I'm getting the impression the race isn't run yet. In the past, Le Pen has always advised her supporters not to vote for Sarkozy. The question will be if she does that now and how many of her supporters will follow that advice. Expectation is that about 50% of LePen suppor ...[text shortened]... of his votes. At the moment, polls are showing Hollande leading 54-46 in a head-to-head race.
23 Apr 12
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Originally posted by no1marauderWhich ones are those ? I'm looking at the wiki that's gathering all the polls and 9 out of 10 polls that started gathering data after the 16th gave the advantage to Le Pen, with the 10th tied. Some of the earliest polls linked to favour Melanchon, but even there we're talking about single points. Though it is the case that polls systematically underrated LePen, we're only talking about 2% on average. Even if we allow that this bias is now working against Sarkozy, he is still behind in all 3 polls. The average difference is about 45.5/54.5, a good lead.
I assume those are the same polls that said Melenchon would finish well ahead of Le Pen.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012
23 Apr 12
Originally posted by BartsPerhaps my statement was an exaggeration, but none of the pre-election polls showed anywhere near a 7 point margin between Le Pen and Melanchon that happened in the voting.
Which ones are those ? I'm looking at the wiki that's gathering all the polls and 9 out of 10 polls that started gathering data after the 16th gave the advantage to Le Pen, with the 10th tied. Some of the earliest polls linked to favour Melanchon, but even there we're talking about single points. Though it is the case that polls systematically underrated LePen ...[text shortened]... ink: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012
23 Apr 12
Originally posted by no1marauderThere is usually an underestimation of the vote to extreme populist candidates. This is because people tend to be ashamed of voting for them, and so lie in opinion polls. Of course they are right to be ashamed since the people who voted Le Pen are inferior.
Perhaps my statement was an exaggeration, but none of the pre-election polls showed anywhere near a 7 point margin between Le Pen and Melanchon that happened in the voting.
23 Apr 12
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Originally posted by no1marauderThat's true, Melanchon also did worse than expected in the polls (to the tune of about 2% ).
Perhaps my statement was an exaggeration, but none of the pre-election polls showed anywhere near a 7 point margin between Le Pen and Melanchon that happened in the voting.
23 Apr 12
Originally posted by KazetNagorraIn the US the opposite is usually true at least up until the last stages of the campaign. Third party candidates with some strength seem to do better in the polls than they do on Election Night.
There is usually an underestimation of the vote to extreme populist candidates. This is because people tend to be ashamed of voting for them, and so lie in opinion polls. Of course they are right to be ashamed since the people who voted Le Pen are inferior.
I would think that the polls are presently understating how many of Le Pen's voters will wind up voting for Sarkozy; there's always a "hold your nose" factor involved when there are only two candidates. Even if Le Pen doesn't endorse Sarkozy, I think he'll get more than 2/3 of those votes as he has done in previous elections.
The increased votes for Le Pen are a result of the economic disaster and upheaval that ever increasing trends towards "globalization" and "free trade" are causing among French workers. To a smaller extent, they are a part of the Tea Party movement in the US.