Originally posted by zeeblebotMocan and Gittings (2001) concluded that each execution decreases the number of homicides by five or six while Dezhbaksh, Rubin, and Shepherd (2002) argued that each execution deters eighteen murders. Cloninger and Marchesini (2001) published a study finding that the Texas moratorium from March 1996 to April 1997 increased homicide rates. The moratorium simply increased homicide in comparison to what their econometric model said it would have otherwise been.
here, read the section on Deterrence (or you could even read the whole article) at this link: http://tempknak.home.att.net/YoHoHo.html
for example, Singapore has the highest or almost highest per capita execution rate, and its murder rate is one tenth of the U.S. rate.
Of all the econometric myths, the wildest is this: We know what would have been.
It is time to abandon the illusion that mathematics can convert the real world into the mythical land of Ceteris Paribus. Social science can provide valid and reliable results with methods that present the data with as little statistical manipulation as possible and interpret it in light of the best qualitative information available. The value of this research is shown by its success in demonstrating that capital punishment has not deterred homicide.
http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/article.php?scid=12&did=1176
"The value of this research is shown by its success in demonstrating that capital punishment has not deterred homicide."
i.e., the research supports the site owners' views, therefore it is valuable ... and if it did not, or they could not refute it.
and note that their article doesn't mention China or Singapore.
try this: =======
http://www.safe-nz.org.nz/Articles/singapore.htm
"What Singapore is doing right - and what we can learn from that "
or this: =============
"The graph below drawn by the Bureau of Criminal Justice gives a general overview of the murder rate compared to the number of executions that had taken place in the US up to the year 2000:":
http://www.wesleylowe.com/deathpenaltygraph2.jpg
or this: =============
http://www.wesleylowe.com/cp.html
"During the temporary suspension on capital punishment from 1972-1976, researchers gathered murder statistics across the country. In 1960, there were 56 executions in the USA and 9,140 murders. By 1964, when there were only 15 executions, the number of murders had risen to 9,250. In 1969, there were no executions and 14,590 murders, and 1975, after six more years without executions, 20,510 murders occurred rising to 23,040 in 1980 after only two executions since 1976. In summary, between 1965 and 1980, the number of annual murders in the United States skyrocketed from 9,960 to 23,040, a 131 percent increase. The murder rate -- homicides per 100,000 persons -- doubled from 5.1 to 10.2. So the number of murders grew as the number of executions shrank. Researcher Karl Spence of Texas A&M University said:
"While some [death penalty] abolitionists try to face down the results of their disastrous experiment and still argue to the contrary, the...[data] concludes that a substantial deterrent effect has been observed...In six months, more Americans are murdered than have killed by execution in this entire century...Until we begin to fight crime in earnest [by using the death penalty], every person who dies at a criminal's hands is a victim of our inaction."
Notes Dudley Sharp of the criminal-justice reform group Justice For All:
"From 1995 to 2000," "executions averaged 71 per year, a 21,000 percent increase over the 1966-1980 period. The murder rate dropped from a high of 10.2 (per 100,000) in 1980 to 5.7 in 1999 -- a 44 percent reduction. The murder rate is now at its lowest level since 1966. " "