Hi there.
I would like to hear the opinion of US and non-US posters whether they expect America to have or develop fears against a possible shift of mights when talking about the enormous Chinese rise of power. I talk about economical power (biggest producer and importeur of steel, metal prices go up like crazy, they beat their own growth records on a regular basis) and military power (fleet size equal to US, Troop size come on who can beat approx. a billion troopers, nuclear capacities and the soon to come domination of air strength) ?
I expect the shift to take place within the next 10 to 20 years max.
So do they fear and what will they do ?
Please also bear in mind that finally Europe may rise up and speak with one voice and Russia has repaid its debts prior to the timeline due to enormous wins through the uprising oil prices due to US and Isreal foreign politic.
Please stay calm and try to express your thoughts in a human manner. This thread won´t be "moderated" by me but I surely will post from time to time.
If there´s an equal thread please feel free to submit a link.
China and the "United States Of Europe" will arise as the new super powers in the next 50 or so years. Unless America starts changing its ways now, I expect that it will behave like a disempowered school playground bully and behave in an increasingly violent and stupid way. This will trigger nuclear war and annhilation.
Originally posted by Sambo69This is one of my fears that the US might overreact and try to hold down these States finally by Warfare. Although it might be too late for that.
China and the "United States Of Europe" will arise as the new super powers in the next 50 or so years. Unless America starts changing its ways now, I expect that it will behave like a disempowered school playground bully and behave in an increasingly violent and stupid way. This will trigger nuclear war and annhilation.
On the other hand I think that the "real" amount of pro-war US citizens is less than that what the media keeps telling us. Therefore a strike against such a powerful nation will remain undone.
Please people give us your opinions
As an American, there is absolutley that fear. I don't think it is a fear in the sense of "we must destroy them", but rather a fear of "we gotta get our asses in gear and get better". This only applies to China, I'll get to Europe in a bit. My view is that Americans have lost their advantage in the manufacturing sector. China can produce thing better, faster, cheaper right now. This is due to the lack of a free market for labor. China has artifically deflated the price of labor in it's country through some pretty terrible methods (slave labor). I do not think it can be maintained. The Soviets did the same thing and look where that got them. Right now American's hold the trump card. Technological devolpment. China does not 'create' anything. They adopt technology from other nations and just do it cheaper. Without that sort of creative base, they will alway be one step behind. The trade gap is really a non-issue for most Americans. We are getting products for cheaper than we would otherwise, which by default increases our wealth. It also allows our resources to be directed in more productive ways. For every person that is not in an assembly line, we have one more person thinking of new and better ways to do things. With that level of resource focused on advancement, we will always be ahead. Also, the Chinese economy is so tied to our own wealth. If Americans were not buying like crazy from them, their economy would collapse faster than ours. The fear should be that we are not producing goods and services that the other countries want. I see the American economy becoming the banker and financier for the development of these other countries. We have the cash, so we still have the power. We need to make sure we are fostering an environment where we continue to be on the cutting edge. The competition from other countries will only make us better. Just look at what happened when Japan started beating us down in the automotive industry. We adapted and became better. Granted many still think they make a better car, but that really is only preception. The quality of cars is really about even now. My fear is that we will lose our will to compete. That is an issue with the Socialists in our country. The notion that we are entitled to things without earning them will be our downfall, no China making cheaper products.
As for Europe, I have no fear of them. They should be our model for what can happen when the populous gets that entitlement mentality. High taxes, socialized healthcare, etc. are what kill them. If we continue to think we have to compete, we will be fine. Anytime there is a feeling you don't have to earn something, you will lose it. It is that fight that make capitalism the best economic system.
Originally posted by RochadeThe answer is "no".
Hi there.
I would like to hear the opinion of US and non-US posters whether they expect America to have or develop fears against a possible shift of mights when talking about the enormous Chinese rise of power. I talk about economical power (biggest producer and importeur of steel, metal prices go up like crazy, they beat their own growth records on a re ...[text shortened]... will post from time to time.
If there´s an equal thread please feel free to submit a link.
What's to fear? A bunch of worn out commies? Don't make me laugh. They can't get their butt clean using a committee to do it.
And Europe has already risen up and shouted "Give me liberty or give me a free bottle and my dole check!"
I don't quite understand your paranoia, but whatever. What happens happens. It ain't like any individual can do anything about 6 billion people doing whatever they decide to do. The world will muddle on for another ten thousand years or so. I think.
But don't hold me to it. Ok? If I get called on the carpet in 9000 years because I was wrong, i'm gunna be really pissed.
Originally posted by StarValleyWyHey, I won't mind being called on the carpet in 9000 years. It means for one thing, there is still carpet. And I am still here. Maybe in a box but still here!
The answer is "no".
What's to fear? A bunch of worn out commies? Don't make me laugh. They can't get their butt clean using a committee to do it.
And Europe has already risen up and shouted "Give me liberty or give me a free bottle and my dole check!"
I don't quite understand your paranoia, but whatever. What happens happens. It ain't like any ...[text shortened]... t called on the carpet in 9000 years because I was wrong, i'm gunna be really pissed.
Originally posted by sonhouseDon,
Hey, I won't mind being called on the carpet in 9000 years. It means for one thing, there is still carpet. And I am still here. Maybe in a box but still here!
Can you imagine the shame and humiliation old svw would feel though? All that rant against "foolish twits who want to live forever" and all that time spent denying religious ressurection and/or reincarnation -- and all the effort staying optimistic that we poor silly humans can last 10,000 years -- BEING FRIGGIN' WRONG! All wrong!?
I tell you straight out. I just couldn't take it! Just shoot me with a dull knife errr... whatever.
Originally posted by GammastyleCan't say I agree with you on that one. If you have a trade deficit, as big as the one with China, you risk losing your own domestic production. Unless your domestic production industry can transfer its products for the American market for another export market elsewhere, you will risk closure, bad debt and unemployment in certain sectors. Sorry, I also don't buy into your idea that each person unemployed/out of the manufacturing line is going to become an innovator, or whatever. If that was the case, each developed country in the world with high unemployment would actually be the world’s innovators, but that just isn't the case.
The trade gap is really a non-issue for most Americans. We are getting products for cheaper than we would otherwise, which by default increases our wealth. It also allows our resources to be directed in more productive ways. For every person that is not in an assembly line, we have one more person thinking of new and better ways to do things. With that level of resource focused on advancement, we will always be ahead.
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 2005 annual report to congress [http://www.uscc.gov/annual_report/recommendations/05_website_recommendations.pdf] says: China's undervalued currency [thus meaning trade deficit for the US] has contributed to a loss of manufacturing which is a national security concern for the United States.
The US-China Trade 1989-2003 Working Paper by the USCC http://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2005/05_02_07_epi_wp_rscott.pdf states that during this time period, production that supported over 1.5 million jobs was displaced. Their breakdown was thus: Cali (-199,922), Texas (-99,420), Pennsylvania (-69,822), Illinois (-69,668), North Carolina (62,698), Florida (60,026), Ohio (58,095), Michigan (50,991) and Georgia (46,848) as the biggest losers of employment.
The report also states that where the job losses for the US used to be more so in the lower tech manufacturing market, such as shoes and textiles, job losses are now occurring in higher skilled sectors such as computers, electronics and communications equipment. Therefore, the idea that the US is the generator of all innovation and China is just the copier may be close to change. Enough experience in manufacturing will surely foster an understanding, interest, innovation and design in the field.
China now accounts for the entire $32billion deficit in advanced technology products and is rapidly gaining an advantage in automotive and aerospace industries.
I certainly would not be as complacent as yourself when it comes to matters of trade and economy concerning China and the US.
StarValleyWYWhat's to fear? A bunch of worn out commies? Don't make me laugh. They can't get their butt clean using a committee to do it.Oh really? Read the above, read about the Shanghai Security Cooperation and the influence it has on US interests in Central Asia and then also consider the fact that while China may not have a first strike capability nor blue water navy, it does have plans to build one and does have, according the Dept. of Defence Annual Report to Congress of 2006, a number of nuclear capable ICBM's whose range covers the US mainland and China also retains a healthy survivable nuclear option.
Hardly the non-starts you seem to be making them out to be. I'm also pretty sure that whilst terrorism is the US's principal and immediate security threat right now, China is by far the US's largest strategic concern for the first half of the 21st century, at least!
Originally posted by RochadeI'd like to point out that although I often come across as one of the more 'liberal' members of the forum, and never agree with Chancre on anything, I am a pro-war US citizen. I voted for Kerry, but I'd have invaded and stayed there just like Bush did.
This is one of my fears that the US might overreact and try to hold down these States finally by Warfare. Although it might be too late for that.
On the other hand I think that the "real" amount of pro-war US citizens is less than that what the media keeps telling us. Therefore a strike against such a powerful nation will remain undone.
Please people give us your opinions
Originally posted by RochadeI personally can't see Europe ever speaking with one voice, the divisions are too old and too deep.
Hi there.
I would like to hear the opinion of US and non-US posters whether they expect America to have or develop fears against a possible shift of mights when talking about the enormous Chinese rise of power. I talk about economical power (biggest producer and importeur of steel, metal prices go up like crazy, they beat their own growth records on a re will post from time to time.
If there´s an equal thread please feel free to submit a link.
Oil is a major economic factor now but that is a fairly recent phenomena, perhaps a century old, and I think there are signs that civilization is already beginning to move to other energy sources and the Middle East, and Russia, will lose whatever economic importance oil can generate.
China and India are certainly rising in power but they have internal problems. As China becomes more western and private enterprise becomes more established there will also be greater pressures from the most successful within the society to assert more political control and we will have to wait and see if that will unfold peacefully or if there will be purges and civil disorder. As China becomes richer it will also be more difficult for China to keep out those who seek power and economic opportunities in China.
In all of this second guessing I think it is a mistake to ignore Central and South America. I think both areas have great potential for becoming major players on the world stage.
As an American none of this bothers me. America will either
adapt successfully to new challenges or it won't.
In terms of world power, many countries are only shadows of what they once were but they are still countries and their citizens still survive.
Originally posted by StarValleyWyYes, but Europe IS the single biggest economic block in the world.
The answer is "no".
What's to fear? A bunch of worn out commies? Don't make me laugh. They can't get their butt clean using a committee to do it.
And Europe has already risen up and shouted "Give me liberty or give me a free bottle and my dole check!"
I don't quite understand your paranoia, but whatever. What happens happens. It ain't like any ...[text shortened]... t called on the carpet in 9000 years because I was wrong, i'm gunna be really pissed.
Originally posted by DelmerTHis argument is often countered by the other which states that those who are getting rich in China are doing so BECAUSE of the current politico-economic structure. Why would they rock the boat and risk the platforms that made them rich in the first place? Wouldn't they be more suited to manipulating the system even further in their own interests?
China and India are certainly rising in power but they have internal problems. As China becomes more western and private enterprise becomes more established there will also be greater pressures from the most successful within the society to assert more political control and we will have to wait and see if that will unfold peacefully or if there will be purges ...[text shortened]... e difficult for China to keep out those who seek power and economic opportunities in China.
China invites those seeking economic opportunities in their country. China does its best to encourage foreign investment, it is just having teething problems getting used to the fact that it cannot wish to control those interests like it would have its old centrally run economy. China also has to restructure its land ownership laws. Foreign money will always be nervous until they have some sort of control over its investments and assets in China
Originally posted by GammastyleWell put and recc'ed. One thing you forgot is that Europe will become the Federation of Islamic States in 50 years, revert to Sharia Law and become another Pakistan, or better put, Eurostan. No one will ever defeat the US militarily without the whole planet being vaporized, and the Chinese know this.
As an American, there is absolutley that fear. I don't think it is a fear in the sense of "we must destroy them", but rather a fear of "we gotta get our asses in gear and get better". This only applies to China, I'll get to Europe in a bit. My view is that Americans have lost their advantage in the manufacturing sector. China can produce thing better, ...[text shortened]... g, you will lose it. It is that fight that make capitalism the best economic system.
Originally posted by UmbrageOfSnowSince you don't agree with me on anything, nobody takes you seriously...go scrape that Kerry sticker off of your Pinto....
I'd like to point out that although I often come across as one of the more 'liberal' members of the forum, and never agree with Chancre on anything, I am a pro-war US citizen. I voted for Kerry, but I'd have invaded and stayed there just like Bush did.