Israeli Election - Today
17 Mar '15 14:232 editsI'm not going to do a whole primer as I did last time (http://www.redhotpawn.com/board/showthread.php?threadid=150916&page=1). You can see that if you want a small primer into the Israeli political system.
Netanyahu's party (Likud) has been losing ground in the polls over the past couple of weeks. The speech to Congress could possibly have backfired as Israelis are wary of upsetting the US too much. Also, the economy and specifically the cost of living has been a big issue recently in Israel, and the people don't fully trust Netanyahu on economic policy.
Anyway, exactly how many seats the 2 major parties (Netanyahu's Likud and the "Zionist Union" party (a fusion of the Isaac Herzog's traditional Labor party and Tzippi Livni's "Hatuna" party) isn't really the issue. The issue is whether the opposition can form a governing coalition. If Likud wins fewer seats than "Union," Netanyau can still be PM and stay in power if the opposition cannot form a government.
So, here's what to watch for:
- Latest polls have Likud winning about 21-22 seats in the 120 member Parliament with Union at 25 or 26. The parties were tied a couple of weeks ago, but polls have broken sharply against Netanyahu since his speech to Congress (ironic, isn't is?)
- A key new dynamic in this election is that the Arab parties have joined together to form a single party called "United Arab List." While Arabs used to split their vote among left wing Israeli parties and the 3 or 4 smaller Arab parties, the Joint List, which may increase turnout among Israeli Arabs and prevent them from voting for Meretz or Labor (which they might otherwise do) has the United Arab List poised to become the 3rd largest party in the Parliament and can potentially allow them to become the Kingmaker. No Arab party has ever joined the ruling coalition and party leader Ayman Odeh has stated that they will not join the coalition this time either, but in Israeli politics, these sorts of promises are only good until they're not.
The big question is whether the center-left can form a coalition of 61+ seats. Assuming they do well in the election, here is what the numbers look like:
- Assume that Union wins 25 seats
- Yesh Atid, behind Yair Lapid, will almost certainly agree to join a center-left government. They're polling at about 12 seats, for a running total of 37.
- Meretz, the Israeli Green party, is certain to join any center-left coalition. Meretz should win 5-6 seats as they usually do. Let's give the opposition another 5 to be conservative. We're now at 42.
- Kulanu is an interesting dynamic. Party leader Moshe Kahlon is known for left-leaning economic philosophies based on working class egalitarianism, but is also hawkish on security. Kulanu represents a possible target for a Herzog government. They're looking at 8-9 seats, so getting Kulanu in the camp means a total of at least 50 thus far.
- This leaves the Joint Arab List. They're likely to pick up at least 12 or 13 seats, meaning that if they join the government, they can put the center-left over the top and topple Netanyahu.
This would be an extremely fragile coalition, but it could be a coalition nonetheless.
There are also the Ultra-Orthodox parties of Shass and United Torah Judaism (13-14 seats combined) who, in the past, have joined center-left governments in exchange for budgetary concessions. However, Lapid's Yesh Atid are blood enemies with the Ultra-Orthodox on issues such as yeshiva curricula and forcing the Ultra-Orthodox into the draft and so it's hard to imagine both of them in the same coalition.
All other parties are fairly safely in the Netanyahu camp.
Long story short, toppling Netanyahu will take some doing. Herzog and the Union will have to bowl a perfect score. They'll need to do well today AND either convince the Arab party to join the government OR somehow get Yesh Atid and the Ultra-Orthodox to share the same tent.
As I'm getting seriously tired of Netanyahu, I hope they manage to do it.
Netanyahu's party (Likud) has been losing ground in the polls over the past couple of weeks. The speech to Congress could possibly have backfired as Israelis are wary of upsetting the US too much. Also, the economy and specifically the cost of living has been a big issue recently in Israel, and the people don't fully trust Netanyahu on economic policy.
Anyway, exactly how many seats the 2 major parties (Netanyahu's Likud and the "Zionist Union" party (a fusion of the Isaac Herzog's traditional Labor party and Tzippi Livni's "Hatuna" party) isn't really the issue. The issue is whether the opposition can form a governing coalition. If Likud wins fewer seats than "Union," Netanyau can still be PM and stay in power if the opposition cannot form a government.
So, here's what to watch for:
- Latest polls have Likud winning about 21-22 seats in the 120 member Parliament with Union at 25 or 26. The parties were tied a couple of weeks ago, but polls have broken sharply against Netanyahu since his speech to Congress (ironic, isn't is?)
- A key new dynamic in this election is that the Arab parties have joined together to form a single party called "United Arab List." While Arabs used to split their vote among left wing Israeli parties and the 3 or 4 smaller Arab parties, the Joint List, which may increase turnout among Israeli Arabs and prevent them from voting for Meretz or Labor (which they might otherwise do) has the United Arab List poised to become the 3rd largest party in the Parliament and can potentially allow them to become the Kingmaker. No Arab party has ever joined the ruling coalition and party leader Ayman Odeh has stated that they will not join the coalition this time either, but in Israeli politics, these sorts of promises are only good until they're not.
The big question is whether the center-left can form a coalition of 61+ seats. Assuming they do well in the election, here is what the numbers look like:
- Assume that Union wins 25 seats
- Yesh Atid, behind Yair Lapid, will almost certainly agree to join a center-left government. They're polling at about 12 seats, for a running total of 37.
- Meretz, the Israeli Green party, is certain to join any center-left coalition. Meretz should win 5-6 seats as they usually do. Let's give the opposition another 5 to be conservative. We're now at 42.
- Kulanu is an interesting dynamic. Party leader Moshe Kahlon is known for left-leaning economic philosophies based on working class egalitarianism, but is also hawkish on security. Kulanu represents a possible target for a Herzog government. They're looking at 8-9 seats, so getting Kulanu in the camp means a total of at least 50 thus far.
- This leaves the Joint Arab List. They're likely to pick up at least 12 or 13 seats, meaning that if they join the government, they can put the center-left over the top and topple Netanyahu.
This would be an extremely fragile coalition, but it could be a coalition nonetheless.
There are also the Ultra-Orthodox parties of Shass and United Torah Judaism (13-14 seats combined) who, in the past, have joined center-left governments in exchange for budgetary concessions. However, Lapid's Yesh Atid are blood enemies with the Ultra-Orthodox on issues such as yeshiva curricula and forcing the Ultra-Orthodox into the draft and so it's hard to imagine both of them in the same coalition.
All other parties are fairly safely in the Netanyahu camp.
Long story short, toppling Netanyahu will take some doing. Herzog and the Union will have to bowl a perfect score. They'll need to do well today AND either convince the Arab party to join the government OR somehow get Yesh Atid and the Ultra-Orthodox to share the same tent.
As I'm getting seriously tired of Netanyahu, I hope they manage to do it.
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