Looking to have a rational discussion on devising a simple/effective ranking for how well certain countries are doing. I keep hearing certain people shouting how terrible the USA is responding to this.
Here is what I propose as a simple scoring system. Improvements are welcome.
all data comes from
https://www.worldometers.info
I first sorted the data by Total Deaths/Million
I got the top 33 Countries based on that rate.
I looked at all the countries graphs ( for which data was available) and used first reported case.
From there I further filtered by countries which had a first reported case between Feb - 15th and Feb -19th.
Now the countries in question should be on similar timelines.
Next, I added population density data to the table.
Next I propose a simple ranking system determined by the following product:
Score = Total Deaths/Million * 1/Population Density
With a large population density we would inherently expect more infections, so it should be a score decreasing factor. A high Total Deaths per million should be a score increasing factor. So when I take the product, and sort smallest ( Best Outcomes ) to Largest ( Worst Outcomes ) I get the following ranking by country.
Country...……Tot Deaths/10^6.....Pop Density....Score
Germany ..............15..............................240.........…….0.063
UK .........…...........53...………………...…..281...……….0.189
Belgium ..............99...………………...…..383..............0.258
USA ............……......21.........……............….36...………..0.583
Iran ........................39...…………….........….52......….....0.750
France...............…..100............…..............119..............0.840
Italy ..................…...243........................…..206.........….1.180
Sweden...............….35...……………….........25...............1.400
Spain............…...….240.........…......…...…...94......…...…2.553
I'm doing this because I think it is paramount to be as quantitative as possible during the highly charged times, as opposed to shouting people down with mere opinion.
So as I said, I welcome thoughtful critiques, improvements, ect...
@joe-shmo
First reported case isn't that good a statistic. You need to let the infection take hold a little before comparisons become meaningful. Possibly, date of crossing some threshold number of cases per million would be better. It's not obvious to me what the right number of cases per million is. One could take time series data and see where the number of cases stops bouncing around and starts looking like exponential growth and see if that's consistent between countries.
I don’t know if the US should be counted as one country in this.
State to State differences are so grand and the central government is so weak on this matter; added to the mix the size of the country and the differences between say Alabama and New York, perhaps the US figures should be seen on a State to State basis, rather than one centralized pile.
The post that was quoted here has been removedIf your not willing to put down your sword and contribute to making the most reasonable model possible, your contribution can be "googling" every few minutes until the this specific analysis crops up in you browser as a peer reviewed article. My guess is you will be waiting awhile, as the "experts" probably have slightly more pressing issues.
The post that was quoted here has been removedFauci is a freeking IDIOT in plain English.
He actually said that the entire nation should be in lockdown and should stay that way until the new virus infection count is ZERO.
In other words, if New York City has one CV infection on a given day, the people in California, Oregon, Wyoming and all the other states (Hawaii??) need to stay in lock down. Make sense?
Ya see, he is only looking at this from a perspective of virus deaths. he has NO CLUE how many people he would kill by doing such a lockdown.
@shavixmir saidexactly. state to state, not one big pile.
I don’t know if the US should be counted as one country in this.
State to State differences are so grand and the central government is so weak on this matter; added to the mix the size of the country and the differences between say Alabama and New York, perhaps the US figures should be seen on a State to State basis, rather than one centralized pile.
this is why Trump is right when he said that the Feds are backup, not primary. There are 50 states with their leaders able to act on the local problem in a manner that is consistent with their problem, not the problem of some total average
@deepthought saidAs usual, very valuable contribution. Thank you. I am going revise by looking at the log - log plots, and try to see if a threshold in Cases/ Million is approximately constant start to exponential growth between countries. Obviously feel free to repeat the analysis.
@joe-shmo
First reported case isn't that good a statistic. You need to let the infection take hold a little before comparisons become meaningful. Possibly, date of crossing some threshold number of cases per million would be better. It's not obvious to me what the right number of cases per million is. One could take time series data and see where the number of cases ...[text shortened]... ng around and starts looking like exponential growth and see if that's consistent between countries.
You are a prime example of a person with ( what I believe to be) vastly differing political opinions. I'm very grateful you don't (at least outwardly) care about that. Pretty much always willing to engage, and lend a helping hand. Thanks
@shavixmir saidShav, thank you for the input! However, it is a little ambitious at the time. I don't have the fortitude or access to the data to go through this state by state. In my opinion, the USA will live or get slaughtered in this as a whole. It is a nation by nation comparison, and I stick by it.
I don’t know if the US should be counted as one country in this.
State to State differences are so grand and the central government is so weak on this matter; added to the mix the size of the country and the differences between say Alabama and New York, perhaps the US figures should be seen on a State to State basis, rather than one centralized pile.
