The post that was quoted here has been removedYour a world class mathematician, I would like to see your analyzes. How would you do it and your results. Joe impresses me so if you disagree with his methods/ criteria, show me better. This is all open for discussion as he stated in his opening post.
@sonhouse saidShe has contributed mainly sarcasm and sneer, jabbing at what she “suspected” to be intentional omissions on my part to mislead people. I explained my judgement criteria before sharing the results. She could have simply read it, and if she had questions, asked. But alas, accusations are all I receive. She has contributed very little improving substance as of yet.
@jimmac
She has been contributing with several post directly related to this analysis.
@joe-shmo The fact is, Trump ignored advice and warnings from medical experts as early as January. He constantly gives the public dangerous mixed messages. His son in law, Jared Kushner, a senior advisor, said that the desperately needed medical supplies held by the federal government were for the federal government, not the states! For whom is the federal government hoarding? All federal salaries and federal purchased goods and services are bought with money from individuals and businesses in the states. Medical supplies Kushner and Trump are hoarding belong to us and should be immediately released to areas across the country most in need of them. Every step of the way, Trump has ignored expert advice during this pandemic. As a result, people are dying. Medical personal are needlessly dying due to a lack of protective equipment. Trump even insinuated that people working in hospitals were stealing these supplies and trying to sell them on a black market! Outrageous. Yesterday he warned that there will be many, many deaths this coming week and then in the next breath, he said he thought people could congregate for Easter services outside next Sunday. He has shown zero leadership during this war. Trump is directly responsible for the unnecessarily high level of deaths in the U.S. due to COVID 19.
@phranny said"For whom is the federal government hoarding?"
@joe-shmo The fact is, Trump ignored advice and warnings from medical experts as early as January. He constantly gives the public dangerous mixed messages. His son in law, Jared Kushner, a senior advisor, said that the desperately needed medical supplies held by the federal government were for the federal government, not the states! For whom is the federal government hoarding ...[text shortened]... rump is directly responsible for the unnecessarily high level of deaths in the U.S. due to COVID 19.
I assume he was referring to the 2+ million federal employees. You know...that super necessary bunch of people needed to run the federal government in this time of crisis? Can't have it both ways, phranny.
"The fact is", do you dispute the current ranking system? If yes, QUANTITATIVELY, how can it be improved using the data? I'm not going to descend into a pit of mud arguing on the merits of "he said, she said" with a non-contributor.
@eladar saidIt was impossible for it to be exponential by its very nature. Pseudo-exponential in the beginning, yes. But they ended up using quadratic because there is a sharp turnaround at some point, which is not exponential
In case you do not see it in other threads, looks like the total death rate in the US is closer to quadratic than exponential.
It's easy to understand. Once the virus catches hold in society, there are far fewer non-infected people for the infected people to pass it on to. Simple.
@earl-of-trumps saidThat pretty much covers the shape of the curve although the weird thing is that epidemics can also produce that curve without reaching numbers than can be explain it in terms of nobody left who is available to infect. There is obvious survival value for viruses not to completely destroy the host that they need and it is my understanding that there are other factors that contribute to the spread tailing off and not just saturation. I think it's linked to the way they seem to sit doing nothing some years but then take off other years as well.
It was impossible for it to be exponential by its very nature. Pseudo-exponential in the beginning, yes. But they ended up using quadratic because there is a sharp turnaround at some point, which is not exponential
It's easy to understand. Once the virus catches hold in society, there are far fewer non-infected people for the infected people to pass it on to. Simple.
@jimmac saidThere's no accounting for mentally unhinged people.
I tend to disagree, I believe they will kill people. I have an associate that works with the department of human services and they have been warned that domestic violence and child abuse will rise. ( hotlines have been set up) it is highly likely that this will result is deaths. Of coarse I am NOT suggesting that one out-ways the other.
@joe-shmo
One thing you haven't included is the rather double edged GDP per capita. On the one hand a high GDP implies the presence of resources to fight the disease, treat the ill and so forth; but on the other a country with a low GDP per capita might have relatively little internal movement, so that the virus spreads slowly due to absence of mobile hosts.