Lagging Death Reports

This is for you, No1. From the one and only @TheLawyerCraig.

https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1491839322701680644

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
Want to see what long-tailed death reporting looks like? Let's look at Missouri. MO has reported 384 deaths in the past week (confirmed and probable, per NYT), with 272 of those falling on 2/8, reported yesterday. When did those deaths occur? Quite a while ago.

Thread

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
19h
Replying to
@TheLawyerCraig
2/ Only 23 of these deaths occurred during the current week, and only 28 occurred the week before. So, 51/384 deaths reported from 2/3-2/9 occurred after January 26. That's 13.3%.

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
19h
3/ Another 217 deaths (56.5% ) occurred between January 16-25. So that large chunk took about 2-3 weeks to come out in the reporting. Remember, that's from actual death to death report...this isn't the lag from case to death.

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
19h
4/ Another 100 deaths (26.0% ) occurred in the first half of January, and 16 deaths (4.2% ) occurred in December. That's over 30% of deaths reported in the past week (the bulk of which were reported just yesterday) that overwhelmingly flowed from December infections.

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
19h
5/ Omicron didn't surpass 50% of infections in MO until the week of 12/20-12/26. Given the time from infection to death, we're still seeing a significant portion of likely Delta deaths in MO reported, even as of yesterday.
https://health.mo.gov/news/newsitem/uuid/4f7f4d39-7c5a-4a87-9967-1bd1c85caed3

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
19h
6/ I don't have the time to conduct a 50-state survey of Covid death reporting lags, but they're common. Missouri is likely more laggy than most, but I know several states where at least 10-12 days is the norm, and it can run higher than that.

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
19h
7/ I would bet the lags are more apparent in the states that post 1-2 large dumps per week, but it likely varies state to state. Several states provide "date of death" data, which is helpful, but which takes time to see that data fill in.

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
19h
8 (end)/ I'd like to see all 50 states and DC post both "date of" and "reported" deaths in a clear, accessible way. In the meantime, just realize we're always looking in the rearview with our daily reported death numbers, and in some places by quite a bit.

BTW, I don't want to spam with too many new threads, but here's Craig on masking.

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
I know we can't fire up the DeLorean and see what never masking a child would've looked like, but we can try. For example, we can see that several Euro nations never masked the younger cohorts, and we can assume they weren't eugenicists. But that doesn't persuade.


Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
Feb 8
Replying to
@TheLawyerCraig
2/ We can see that a study from the Catalan schools (Spain) showed that transmission increased with age, and that the youngest cohort showed the lowest transmission despite being the only unmasked group. But that doesn't persuade.
Quote Tweet
Alasdair Munro
@apsmunro
· Jul 29, 2021
The main finding was of a clear age dependant gradient on transmission within school bubbles

R* = 0.2 in pre-schools up to 0.6 in high schools

4/
Show this thread
Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
Feb 8
3/ We can look at geographically proximate areas in the US moving generally in tandem re Covid cases, and even see parity in intra-county comparisons where one school system mandates masks and another does not. But that doesn't persuade.
Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
Feb 8
4/ The only persuasive evidence is apparently that which confirms priors. Endpoint-driven nonsense. Data where policies and confounders inherently drive the results. One need only utter the unfalsifiable "it would have been worse without masks," and the team nods along. Auto-win!
Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
Feb 8
5/ I don't personally have a dog in this fight. My son's a teen and generally unbothered. I don't really give a **** about walking the 19 feet to my dinner table whilst masked, despite the silliness.
Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
Feb 8
6/ But I feel gaslit by those who stone-faced say that the cohorts of children, esp. those currently 4-7 years old (started pandemic 2-5) masked the entire day will be just fine coming out of the other side of this. Perhaps most will. But...
Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
Feb 8
7/ How many thousands/tens of thousands of children fall into one or more of these buckets: speech delayed, ESL, autistic, hearing loss, Down Syndrome, developmentally delayed, etc.? Do we really think a couple years masking these groups (among others) has no ripple effect?
Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
Feb 8
8/ The default of some people (still) to treat a mask like wearing a shirt or shoes blows my mind. If that's the case, why haven't they just been a part of our daily wardrobe forever to save thousands of lives a year? It's an unserious position.
Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
·
Feb 8
9/ Bottom line: I'm glad the dam is breaking politically on masks, even if it comes later than I would've liked.



https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1491077164565147650

White People: "They're taking our FRREEEEEEDOM!!!!!"

@sh76 said
BTW, I don't want to spam with too many new threads, but here's Craig on masking.

Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
I know we can't fire up the DeLorean and see what never masking a child would've looked like, but we can try. For example, we can see that several Euro nations never masked the younger cohorts, and we can assume they weren't eugenicists. But that doesn't persuade.


Cr ...[text shortened]... es later than I would've liked.



https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1491077164565147650

@jimm619 said
Craig, THE LAWYER?..
You're kidding right?
Thanks for the suggestions,
but, I'll just stick with,
Fauchi, THE DOCTOR

@suzianne said
White People: "They're taking our FRREEEEEEDOM!!!!!"

@jimm619 said
Craig, THE LAWYER?..
You're kidding right?
Thanks for the suggestions,
but, I'll just stick with,
Fauchi, THE DOCTOR

@pb1022 said
Maybe learn to spell his name right, Jimbo

@jimm619 said
Thanks for correcting me,
much appreciated, Skippy.

@pb1022 said
And Fauci’s flip-flopped more times during this pandemic than a fish on a dock.

@jimm619 said
As they learned more, of the virus, they
updated their advise.
Do you find this unusual, Skippy?

@pb1022 said
Well Fauci advised Trump and Trump did everything he said.

And I think many believe Trump botched the pandemic response when it was Fauci who screwed up the response as he was advising Trump and Trump did everything he said.

@jimm619 said
WRONG, SKIPPY
TRUMP IGNORED FAUCI's ADVICE.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-didnt-listen-anthony-fauci-fox-news-ingraham-angle-interview-1578980
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-listened-anthony-fauci-but-didnt-do-what-he-said-2021-3?op=1

@pb1022 said
Actually, I’m right, Jimbo.

*After* Fauci screwed up the pandemic response, Trump justifiably stopped listening to him.