this is based on my very limited knowledge of statistics and of population models.
the formula for the population of animals is:
Nnew=Y(Nold)(1-Nold)
where N=population density, N=1 being the biggest it can get, and N=0 being it extinct. and Y is a constant (it's actually lamda, but i won't tell anyone if you won't 😉)
if Y is less than 1, the population gets smaller and smaller until it goes extinct.
when Y is between 1 and 3, the population gets bigger and bigger and then it stays stable.
when Y is between 3 and 3.57 the population goes up and down with a constant maximum and minimum.
but when Y is greater than 3.57 it goes chaotic. it's all so complicated that it's impossible to predict.
well-maybe global wormings a bit like this? sure we're probubly helping it on a bit, but it might just be going the way it is cause-well-the model says it is...😛
perhaps?
Originally posted by geniusThankfully, most things in the world happen over continuous time, so things don't tend to go completely bananas in the way the logistic equation does. However, it may well be that climate change will go in directions we can't predict because of positive feedback and relatively sudden state changes in the way the system works.
this is based on my very limited knowledge of statistics and of population models.
the formula for the population of animals is:
Nnew=Y(Nold)(1-Nold)
where N=population density, N=1 being the biggest it can get, and N=0 being it extinct. and Y is a constant (it's actually lamda, but i won't tell anyone if you won't 😉)
if Y is less than 1, the ...[text shortened]... a bit, but it might just be going the way it is cause-well-the model says it is...😛
perhaps?
Originally posted by AcolyteUnless I've done something wrong, the logistic equation is just a discrete form of a first-order DE that has pretty chill, banana-free solutions, right?
Thankfully, most things in the world happen over continuous time, so things don't tend to go completely bananas in the way the logistic equation does. However, it may well be that climate change will go in directions we can't predict because of positive feedback and relatively sudden state changes in the way the system works.