This - child - I'm at a loss for words. Speechless.
Charles Krauthammer
Opinion Writer
‘Sucker’s deal’
A president desperate to change the subject and a secretary of state desperate to make a name for himself are reportedly on the verge of an “interim” nuclear agreement with Iran. France called it a “sucker’s deal.” France was being charitable.
The only reason Iran has come to the table after a decade of contemptuous stonewalling is that economic sanctions have cut so deeply — its currency has collapsed, inflation is rampant — that the regime fears a threat to its very survival.
Nothing else could move it to negotiate. Regime survival is the only thing the mullahs value above nuclear weapons. And yet precisely at the point of maximum leverage, President Obama is offering relief in a deal that is absurdly asymmetric: The West would weaken sanctions in exchange for cosmetic changes that do absolutely nothing to weaken Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Don’t worry, we are assured. This is only an interim six-month agreement to “build confidence” until we reach a final one. But this makes no sense. If at this point of maximum economic pressure we can’t get Iran to accept a final deal that shuts down its nuclear program, how in God’s name do we expect to get such a deal when we have radically reduced that pressure?
A bizarre negotiating tactic. And the content of the deal is even worse. It’s a rescue package for the mullahs.
It widens permissible trade in oil, gold and auto parts. It releases frozen Iranian assets, increasing Iran’s foreign-exchange reserves by 25 percent while doubling its fully accessible foreign-exchange reserves. Such a massive infusion of cash would be a godsend for its staggering economy, lowering inflation, reducing shortages and halting the country’s growing demoralization. The prospective deal is already changing economic expectations. Foreign oil and other interests are reportedly preparing to reopen negotiations for a resumption of trade in anticipation of the full lifting of sanctions.
And for what? You’d offer such relief in return for Iran giving up its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Isn’t that what the entire exercise is about?
And yet this deal does nothing of the sort. Nothing. It leaves Iran’s nuclear infrastructure intact. Iran keeps every one of its 19,000 centrifuges — yes, 19,000 — including 3,000 second-generation machines that produce enriched uranium at five times the rate of the older ones.
Not a single centrifuge is dismantled. Not a single facility that manufactures centrifuges is touched. In Syria, the first thing the weapons inspectors did was to destroy the machines that make the chemical weapons. Then they went after the stockpiles. It has to be that way. Otherwise, the whole operation is an exercise in futility. Take away just the chemical agents, and the weapons-making facilities can replace them at will.
Yet that’s exactly what we’re doing with Iran. It would deactivate its 20 percent enriched uranium, which besides being chemically reversible, is quickly replaceable because Iran retains its 3.5 percent enriched uranium, which can be enriched to 20 percent in less than a month.
Result: Sanctions relief that leaves Iran’s nuclear infrastructure untouched, including — and this is where the French gagged — the plutonium facility at Arak, a defiant alternate path to a nuclear weapon.
The point is blindingly simple. Unless you dismantle the centrifuges and prevent the manufacture of new ones, Iran will be perpetually just a few months away from going nuclear. This agreement, which is now reportedly being drafted to allow Iran to interpret it as granting the “right” to enrich uranium, constitutes the West legitimizing Iran’s status as a threshold nuclear state.
Don’t worry, we are assured. The sanctions relief is reversible. Nonsense. It was extraordinarily difficult to cobble together the current sanctions. It took endless years of overcoming Russian, Chinese and Indian recalcitrance, together with foot-dragging from Europeans making a pretty penny from Iran.
Once the relaxation begins, how do you reverse it? How do you reapply sanctions? There is absolutely no appetite for this among our allies. And adding back old sanctions will be denounced as a provocation that would drive Iran to a nuclear breakout — exactly as Obama is today denouncing congressional moves to increase sanctions as a deal-breaking provocation that might lead Iran to break off talks.
The mullahs are eager for this interim agreement with its immediate yield of political and economic relief. Once they get it, we will have removed their one incentive to conclude the only agreement that is worth anything to us — a verifiable giving up of their nuclear program.
Brilliant.
Originally posted by AThousandYoungIran probably won't nuke Philly. The mullahs like cheesesteaks too much. I do think that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Israel are afraid a nuclear-armed Iran will start slinging them around and start a regional war that will eventually engulf India and Pakistan. I think most informed people worry about that.
Are you frightened Iran will nuke Philly?
Originally posted by sasquatch672Why is that the responsibility of the US Federal Government?
Iran probably won't nuke Philly. The mullahs like cheesesteaks too much. I do think that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Israel are afraid a nuclear-armed Iran will start slinging them around and start a regional war that will eventually engulf India and Pakistan. I think most informed people worry about that.
Originally posted by sasquatch672I see, so a regime that "fears [...] its survival" is going to start "slinging" nukes around. Yeah, that makes sense. Pity I'm not informed enough to understand such infallible logic.
Iran probably won't nuke Philly. The mullahs like cheesesteaks too much. I do think that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Israel are afraid a nuclear-armed Iran will start slinging them around and start a regional war that will eventually engulf India and Pakistan. I think most informed people worry about that.
Originally posted by AThousandYoung...sigh...It's too late to start a dissertation on the important historical role the US has played in the Middle East. Maybe I'll try tomorrow. Maybe you don't have a problem with Iran slinging nukes around the Arabian Peninsula. Maybe you think Israel being vaporized is a good idea and the United States will somehow fail to protect its ally and the only democracy in the region. Maybe $1000 a barrel oil is attractive to you. Maybe you think that Russian, Syrian, American, British, Iranian, and French warships all patrolling the Strait of Hormuz - hell maybe they'll just all tie up together and have an international kegger. Maybe you think Saudi Arabia won't mind a nuclear Iran and won't go to Russia or China to secure nukes of their own as a deterrent. I don't know. You tell me.
Apparently YOU can't answer the question.
Originally posted by sasquatch672Why would Iran sling nukes? That would be suicide. We have more than enough oil we can develop here without the middle east. Develop our own oil and put some of our own men here at home to work on it. Let Saudi Arabia get nukes. They probably already have them from us. The US hasn't been good at keeping track of our own, so why use that as an excuse to keep them away from other nations? The international kegger would be cool !!!
...sigh...It's too late to start a dissertation on the important historical role the US has played in the Middle East. Maybe I'll try tomorrow. Maybe you don't have a problem with Iran slinging nukes around the Arabian Peninsula. Maybe you think Israel being vaporized is a good idea and the United States will somehow fail to protect its ally and the ...[text shortened]... go to Russia or China to secure nukes of their own as a deterrent. I don't know. You tell me.