03 Jul 08
I read the article and I'm not convinced. Just because we don't have the political will in the United States to go after our own untapped energy resources is not the same as not having them. Also, there was no mention of Russian oil reserves, the tar sands and oil shale in Western Canada and the United States, the oil deposits found off the coast of Brazil, nor the supplies off the coast of Florida. Then there's the problem of inefficiency in state-controlled markets like Venezuela, Mexico and Iran. Clearly, they are pumping at something like -33% capacity in Venezuela since Chavez kicked the private oil companies out.
03 Jul 08
1 edit
The writer of that article doesn't know what he's talking about or he's deliberately being alarmist.
The IEA stressed that worldwide demand for oil has been rising and that supply has not responded, thus explaining oil prices. They DO NOT invoke peak oil as a reason for supply not reacting, but rather insufficient investment to get the oil from the ground to the consumers.
Even the quote he uses says that:
“Our findings highlight again the need for sustained, and indeed, increased investment both upstream and downstream — to assure that the market is adequately supplied,” stated [IEA Executive Director Nabuo] Tanaka.
It's not that the oil is running out (for now) but that the investments are too bulky and lenghty to react at the same pace as demand.
03 Jul 08
Originally posted by PalynkaYes Palyanka, I read that too. But, You should know for one that does follwo the news. Whether the Peak is now or in 40 years, there is a supply and demand problem and India, China, the Middle East, Brazil, and Russia are all increasing their demand for oil Quickly.
The writer of that article doesn't know what he's talking about or he's deliberately being alarmist.
The IEA stressed that worldwide demand for oil has been rising and that supply has not responded, thus explaining oil prices. They DO NOT invoke peak oil as a reason for supply not reacting, but rather insufficient investment to get the oil from the ground ...[text shortened]... now) but that the investments are too bulky and lenghty to react at the same pace as demand.
Perhaps, it is not a problem for the West and they can ride their cars for the next 40 years in smug contentment. Yet, I think that there is enough of a problem to warrent a look to solve it. Drilling and asking for more Oil form the Middle East and Non-Opec nations will not solve the narco-dependence of most industrialized nations.
03 Jul 08
2 edits
Originally posted by mochironMochiron, I think we agree that peak oil is almost a tautology, in the sense that a peak must necessarily exist. The resource is finite and the current level of consumption means that it cannot continue forever. But the question is: Will the fall in consumption be because oil is running out and has to be rationed or will the downfall be because other forms of energy become more widespread?
Yes Palyanka, I read that too. But, You should know for one that does follwo the news. Whether the Peak is now or in 40 years, there is a supply and demand problem and India, China, the Middle East, Brazil, and Russia are all increasing their demand for oil Quickly.
Perhaps, it is not a problem for the West and they can ride their cars for the next 40 y ...[text shortened]... le East and Non-Opec nations will not solve the narco-dependence of most industrialized nations.
I think that high oil prices are a great way of providing the right incentives for investing in research in alternative forms of energy, so I'm relatively hopeful that we won't reach the point of serious oil rationing. Especially because we can now see a significant number of entrepreneurs going into green technologies. I'm also in favour of introducing measures that transfer at least part of the social cost of pollution to companies, which might help these emerging technologies further.
03 Jul 08
1 edit
Originally posted by mochironLook, "Peak Oil" is just a perversion in concept of market fundamentals. While we can't argue that there isn't a limit the total amount of oil available, we can argue that as the price of oil increases, the rate at which the oil is used will decrease.
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/07/01/peak-oil-iea-inches-toward-the-pessimists-camp/
will Developed Nations finally wake up?!!!
In other words, if the price becomes too costly, people will slow their consumption of it thus prolonging the timeframe that we will have oil available to use.
Take this concept further, and it's possible to envision a scenario where consumption drops below production in the future.
Couple this with new technologies via Lithium Ion batteries for vehicles and the ultra-secret ultracapicitor technology from companies like Eestor Inc, and the demand for oil drops like a stone.
http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2008/06/27/eestor-to-prove-chevy-volt-obsolete-before-launch/
Peak oil is only true if current demand stays the same or rises. Most of the numbers show that oil demand is dropping in developed countries and will likely drop in developing countries should oil increase higher as their growth in GDP gets hammered via the inflationary pressures of higher oil prices.
In short, market fundamentals will ensure we NEVER run out of oil.
03 Jul 08
Originally posted by PalynkaAgreed, but I also hope for those aforementioned solutions. However, I think that time is of the essence. Will we be too late?
Mochiron, I think we agree that peak oil is almost a tautology, in the sense that a peak must necessarily exist. The resource is finite and the current level of consumption means that it cannot continue forever. But the question is: Will the fall in consumption be because oil is running out and has to be rationed or will the downfall be because other forms o ...[text shortened]... social cost of pollution to companies, which might help these emerging technologies further.
03 Jul 08
Originally posted by mochironIt matters little to me if there really is an oil shortage. In fact, who really cares? All that does matter is that the industrialized world is currently powerless in terms of controlling oil prices. This should be enough incentive to sound the alarm and move towards a change in the current energy policies around the globe. All that is certain is that the higher oil prices become the greater likelyhood that other energy sources will be sought after. Hopefully, the Middle East will end up pricing themselves out of relevance. Of course, what happens in the interim is the question? It will be a painful and slow process. No one seems willing to pursue change unless forced into it. Then again, I think that is only human nature.
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/07/01/peak-oil-iea-inches-toward-the-pessimists-camp/
will Developed Nations finally wake up?!!!
03 Jul 08
Originally posted by uzlessWhat happens if the drop in supply is to fast for the market to cope? As things stand, our economies are pretty much dependent on oil - are enough sectors capable of switching to an alternative within the required timeframe?
Look, "Peak Oil" is just a perversion in concept of market fundamentals. While we can't argue that there isn't a limit the total amount of oil available, we can argue that as the price of oil increases, the rate at which the oil is used will decrease.
In other words, if the price becomes too costly, people will slow their consumption of it thus prolonging ...[text shortened]... of higher oil prices.
In short, market fundamentals will ensure we NEVER run out of oil.
Even if we do never run out of oil because supply has slowed to a trickle, that doesn't mean markets won't have collapsed on the way because they haven't found viable alternatives and been able to compensate. This isn't about oil running out, it's about market failure.
In short, what is going to compensate the drop in energy/chemical supply? Some of the energy will be offset by improved efficiency, but will it be enough?
My biggest concern is what will replace crude oil in the manufacture of fertilisers. Will the rise in the price of crude oil make biofuels even more unviable?
Anyone got any figures on these sorts of things, might make an interesting read.
03 Jul 08
Originally posted by mrstabbytheoildrum.com
What happens if the drop in supply is to fast for the market to cope? As things stand, our economies are pretty much dependent on oil - are enough sectors capable of switching to an alternative within the required timeframe?
Even if we do never run out of oil because supply has slowed to a trickle, that doesn't mean markets won't have collapsed on the w ...[text shortened]... viable?
Anyone got any figures on these sorts of things, might make an interesting read.
has statistics galore... also try
http://energybulletin.net/
04 Jul 08
1 edit
Originally posted by mochironI got a little disillusioned today. I was watching a debate about the energy crisis that took place betoeen a liberal and a conservative. The liberal said that what was needed was another stimulus package, like the one we just recieved from Bush. In fact, Obama is now endorsing such a package. Yea, we can see the benefit of the stimulus package that Bush just got done providing. LOL. All we need to go farther into debt so as to reduce the value of the dollar even further as we watch oil go up along with a decreasing value of the dollar!!
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/07/01/peak-oil-iea-inches-toward-the-pessimists-camp/
will Developed Nations finally wake up?!!!
The conservative, however, was not much better. He said what was needed was less government interventions by doing away with the corporate tax and reducing taxes on capital gains etc etc??!??! However, none mentioned the need to get off of foriegn oil. Is it just me or are we all doomed?
I think Americans need to march on Washington and demand an energy policy that makes sense.
04 Jul 08
Originally posted by whodeyReduce gummint intervention so the Co's can get into Alaska, then reduce taxes and you'll see some action.
I got a little disillusioned today. I was watching a debate about the energy crisis that took place betoeen a liberal and a conservative. The liberal said that what was needed was another stimulus package, like the one we just recieved from Bush. In fact, Obama is now endorsing such a package. Yea, we can see the benefit of the stimulus package that Bush ...[text shortened]... ?
I think Americans need to march on Washington and demand an energy policy that makes sense.
04 Jul 08
Originally posted by WajomaDrilling in Alaska and off shore is a temporary fix. The US is projected as having about a 3 year supply of oil that is foriegn oil free. I agree that the US needs to drill for its own reserves, however, while the US is doing it they need to begin plans on alternative energies such as nuclear power etc.
Reduce gummint intervention so the Co's can get into Alaska, then reduce taxes and you'll see some action.