The wise pundits of the media were virtually unanimous in declaring Mueller's testimony on Wednesday as a "disaster" for the Democrats and a huge political win for the Donald. But a couple of polls taken after that testimony seem to contradict that assessment.
First, there is YouGov's. In its poll taken on July 22-23, 43% approved of Trump, while 49% disapproved. But after the "disaster" on Wednesday, the poll taken on July 24-25, showed a slight dip of Trump support to 41%, but a 5 point jump of disapprovals to 54%. So in the space of two days, his net approval changed from -6% to -13%, a 7 point fall. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
Meanwhile, over at the most Republican friendly major polling company, Rasmussen, on July 23rd, they showed Trump with a 50% approval v. a 49% disapproval (note they have consistently had Trump's approval rating higher than any other poll). But as of today, the numbers had changed from 47% approval to 51% disapproval. So his net approval went from a +1 to a minus 4, a drop of 5 points closely mirroring the change in YouGov's. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history
Now it's only two polls, one of which has been an outlier for most of its existence, so perhaps we can't make too confident assertions based on them. But, so far at least, the evidence suggests that the testimony hurt Trump despite Mueller's lack of pizzazz. Would such a result really be surprising in light of the fact that the hearing brought to the public the obvious misdeeds of Trump and his campaign?
We'll have to see more data, of course, but preliminary evidence suggests the Dems' expectations regarding the effect of the public testimony was more accurate than the after the fact punditry.
@kazetnagorra saidTwo polls won't significantly shift their aggregate and those are the only two polls done after Mueller's testimony. The shifts are similar, however; we'll see if more polls confirm it.
FiveThirtyEight's aggregate approval polling doesn't appear to show any significant shift in approval ratings. At this point, a sex tape featuring the Donald and Hillary Clinton could emerge, and it wouldn't dent Trump's approval ratings.
@KazetNagorra
Anyone want to start a pool on when the Donald will shoot someone on 5th Ave ?
@patzering saidMost working families that support Republicans don't own a computer. 😆
Most Republicans are working families that don't have time nor the inclination to sit at a computer and take part in a poll.
@no1marauder saidI highly doubt it, the Mueller testimony is minor compared to the depravity and debauchery that has already been revealed, and Trump's cultists are more than willing to forgive any transgressions as long as Trump keeps saying bad things about brown people and "liberals."
Two polls won't significantly shift their aggregate and those are the only two polls done after Mueller's testimony. The shifts are similar, however; we'll see if more polls confirm it.
@kazetnagorra saidYou grossly overestimate the amount of "strong" Trump supporters; they are 30-35% at best. Erosion of his somewhat support and/or shifts from ambivalent voters could significantly change the present political climate.
I highly doubt it, the Mueller testimony is minor compared to the depravity and debauchery that has already been revealed, and Trump's cultists are more than willing to forgive any transgressions as long as Trump keeps saying bad things about brown people and "liberals."
The Morning Consult poll taken Thursday showed little change; it had Trump at a net disapproval of -16% whereas the last MC poll taken on July 19-21 had his net approval at -17%. https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/190743_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_JB.pdf
So little change, but still pretty bad for the Donald.
@handyandy saidHahaha.
Last words of Louis XVI?
Nice. I love historic jokes!
But, I think you might have to explain to our friends who he was.
And that France is a country.
Indeed, some of the posters here actually claim royalty doesn’t exist (and then the whole joke really can’t make sense).