Possible scenarios for the US.

Originally posted by rwingett
[b]During the next 25 years, one of the following scenarios will likely take place:

1. Using some "national emergency" as a pretext, the President will suspend the Constitution and rule by decree indefinitely.

2. Using some "national emergency" as a pretext, a group of military and/or corporate interests will stage a coup, suspend the Constitution, and rule by decree indefinitely.

#1 assumes that corporate America is not already on board with the government, therefore, it is fatally flawed. I always picured the middle class and small business continuing to deteriorate until we are all just mindless drones that work for Big Business and Big Government. The way that the US education system is headed it almost makes one wonder if its by chance. If so, there will be no need to suspend the Constitution. After all, if you can't read it or understand it or are in a position to enforce it who the hell cares about it?

Originally posted by Hugh Glass
I seriously doubt I'll have to deal with looters, or cops where I am....

If you are in Ca. I think the scenario you paint would be much more likely...
How fast can you get out of the area? Where are the bottle necks where you are most likely to be in harms way? How do you round up your family in a timely manner?
Just saw there was an earthquake in Va ...[text shortened]... to adapt to them can be critical.
oh, and there are no daiseys where I plan to be buried.....

Yeah, that's one of the big problems here. Moving people around.

Originally posted by AThousandYoung
Yeah, that's one of the big problems here. Moving people around.

In the small town where I grew up, ATVs, and snow machines are legal to drive on the streets. Of course you could never do it in a city of any size..... But I can drive down to the local store, and get groceries in my Razor.... I like that. I think everyone should have some kind of plan for addressing an emergency.... where do we go? what do we take?

Originally posted by Hugh Glass
In the small town where I grew up, ATVs, and snow machines are legal to drive on the streets. Of course you could never do it in a city of any size..... But I can drive down to the local store, and get groceries in my Razor.... I like that. I think everyone should have some kind of plan for addressing an emergency.... where do we go? what do we take?

The way it worked last time (the riot), we kinda knew it was coming. Between the time of the Rodney King beating and the "not guilty" verdict, we drove everyone up into the hills. My buddy's hillbilly gangster Dad was guarding the road up with two rifles - a light rifle and a heavy rifle. The first for people, the second for lowriders. The plan was to take out the lead car's engine to block any further motorized advance and then the light rifle was ready if there was further need. Of course, the riot never got close to the hills we were in.

For those who stayed to protect home and business, they generally bunkered down in their own buildings. A big apartment building has a lot of people and resources and can defend itself during a riot.

I haven't prepared for an earthquake in the slightest. I've studied the standard procedures but the fact is I've gone my whole life without any catastrophic earthquakes. I have more important things to worry about and I'm lazy.

glad to hear you have rifles, and that was a good plan..
planning for earthquakes. tough call.
The plant I worked at had vibration sensors in the floors around the building that tied into a life safety system. It shut down all hazardous produicng chemicals at the slightest bump, same with fire, and gas detection..man, there's where we spend good money to keep people and enviroment safer, and I'll betcha China hasn't a darn thing.. so competition is tough.

I find neither scenario likely. A Japan-style period of stagnation is certainly possible though, especially considering the deteriorating political climate and the apparant unwillingness of the electorate to do anything about it.

Originally posted by rwingett
The only thing that cannot happen is that things will continue as they currently are. So, which of the four above seems most likely, or are there more scenarios I've overlooked?

Why not, what has changed in the last 25 years? Do you think the US will implode because of China jealousy?

I think the only way the US will break up or change that significantly in the next 25 years is if:
1. There is a serious war with another superpower.
2. The economy completely collapses (eg due to China dropping the Dollar).

I find both scenarios unlikely though.

Originally posted by twhitehead
Why not, what has changed in the last 25 years? Do you think the US will implode because of China jealousy?

I think the only way the US will break up or change that significantly in the next 25 years is if:
1. There is a serious war with another superpower.
2. The economy completely collapses (eg due to China dropping the Dollar).

I find both scenarios unlikely though.

The changes that we are looking at will not be motivated externally. They are internal dissensions that will tear the nation apart. The structure of US government has become wholly inadequate to deal with that stress. Some people on this thread (the usual crowd) foolishly imagine that a dysfunctional government is a good thing and that it can be continued indefinitely. It cannot. Vast and far reaching changes are in store for the US. The only question is what form they shall take.

Originally posted by rwingett
The changes that we are looking at will not be motivated externally. They are internal dissensions that will tear the nation apart. The structure of US government has become wholly inadequate to deal with that stress. Some people on this thread (the usual crowd) foolishly imagine that a dysfunctional government is a good thing and that it can be continued i ...[text shortened]... nd far reaching changes are in store for the US. The only question is what form they shall take.

I see you are not answering my question. What is new? What has changed so drastically that the US will implode?

Originally posted by twhitehead
I see you are not answering my question. What is new? What has changed so drastically that the US will implode?

Are you daft? The nation has become polarized to an extent not seen since 1861. The result was civil war then and the results are likely to be as equally calamitous now.

I realize that the bulk of people from any era are incapable of envisioning a future that differs significantly from the present they know, but I think they're in for a rude awakening.

Originally posted by rwingett
Are you daft? The nation has become polarized to an extent not seen since 1861. The result was civil war then and the results are likely to be as equally calamitous now.

I realize that the bulk of people from any era are incapable of envisioning a future that differs significantly from the present they know, but I think they're in for a rude awakening.

So who are the two sides you see in this conflict? Conservatives vs liberals? Haves vs have nots?

Which side do you envision starting the violence, and which side do you envision suspending the Constitution?

Originally posted by Sleepyguy
So who are the two sides you see in this conflict? Conservatives vs liberals? Haves vs have nots?

Which side do you envision starting the violence, and which side do you envision suspending the Constitution?

The Republicans are the bad guys in every scenario that I can come up with.

Originally posted by rwingett
The Republicans are the bad guys in every scenario that I can come up with.

I think you secretly wish for this Republican on Dem violence to validate your crumbling world view.

What seems more likely to me, IF there were to be widespread violence, is that leftists, frustrated with the reality that Utopia cannot be bought with other people's money, organize violence to further their political goals.

Originally posted by Sleepyguy
I think you secretly wish for this Republican on Dem violence to validate your crumbling world view.

What seems more likely to me, IF there were to be widespread violence, is that leftists, frustrated with the reality that Utopia cannot be bought with other people's money, organize violence to further their political goals.

The Left aren't the ones talking about Second Amendment Solutions.

Originally posted by AThousandYoung
The Left aren't the ones talking about Second Amendment Solutions.

Ah, good 'ol Sharron. Not the brightest bulb. But I'm sure somewhere even in her brilliant comments she made reference to a tyrannical government as prerequsite to any of those 2nd amendment remedies. If someone were to try to suspend the US Constitution as rwingett suggests then all hell really could break loose, but conservatives would be out to defend the Constitution, not suspend it.