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Here is an article that Eladar first showed me. It analyzes potential mitigation strategies.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Here is what I believe to be the most crucial part of the report:
"We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either strategy here, except to note that there is no easy policy decision to be made. Suppression, while successful to date in China and South Korea, carries with it enormous social and economic costs which may themselves have significant impact on health and well-being in the short and longer-term. Mitigation will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality may therefore still be high."
So on one hand we are facing the threat of a virus, and on the other we are facing the threat of a police state. We have been dealing with both since the beginning of civilization itself. Countless wars have been fought over "unfree peoples". 100's of millions if not trillions have died over the course of history from the police state. Its just now we find ourselves having to choose the lesser of two evils. Which do you choose?
I choose the virus.
1) With the virus, we have a good idea of who is going to die, with a police state … anyone is fair game.
2) Implementing a police state does not eliminate the threat of the virus, why would we wish to fight a war on two fronts as opposed to all of humanity working to fight a common enemy?
3) Once police states form, they don't usually just dissolve without some deadly force.
Instead of option A or B, how about we continue the mitigation strategies until the curves flatten. At which time we should return to some semblance of normal life, but instead using the time necessary for the curve to "reset" to manufacture medical supplies and outfit abandoned shopping centers across the world as quarantine/treatment locations for the disease. For Instance, in my small town in western PA there is a virtually abandoned 1,000,000 square foot shopping facility, that is currently entertaining ideas to convert to casinos. These types of facilities are everywhere in the world now (thanks to Amazon, and internet shopping). From there, it is a matter of retraining a portion of the labor force to become nurses and nurse aids specifically tailored toward the treatment of the disease.
Could it work?
@joe-shmo saidFirst it was estimated a while ago that there are 10 dead people for every living one, which puts the total number of humans who have ever lived at a number not exceeding 100 billion. So "trillions" cannot have died at the hands of Police states. Further, the two states that between them did the most damage were Stalin's Soviet Union and Hiltler's Germany. Stalin was probably responsible for about 100 million excess deaths (I think that that's at the high end of estimates) and Hitler about 9 million (total concentration camp victims). Add the number who died in the second World War and the excess deaths caused by other totalitarian regimes, for example there were around 30 million deaths during the Cultural Revolution, and we have a number not exceeding 250 million - and that guess/estimate is deliberately high. These deaths occurred over a period of a few decades.
Here is an article that Eladar first showed me. It analyzes potential mitigation strategies.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Here is what I believe to be the most crucial part of the report:
"We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either str ...[text shortened]... nurses and nurse aids specifically tailored toward the treatment of the disease.
change my mind.
If 80% of the World's population (7.7 billion in 2019) get this disease and 0.9% of them die then we have 55.44 million excess deaths - from the direct effects of the disease alone. This does not include additional deaths due to the collapse of heath care systems. These deaths will occur over a period of less than a year.
There is no realistic reason to think that because limited emergency powers are granted that they will not be dismantled when no longer needed. The British government had immense powers during the Second World War, there was a Government of National Unity and there were no elections, once they were no longer needed they were revoked. Nothing like that is being proposed now.
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@DeepThought
Sorry, that trillions figure was not what I meant. I was going for billions, I accidentally jumped a few orders of magnitude.
Is there an estimate from the beginning of civilization for the number of casualties due to the rebellion of unfree peoples?
@joe-shmo saidIt's inconvenient that I can't go to my usual bars and have a couple of beers and shoot some darts.
Here is an article that Eladar first showed me. It analyzes potential mitigation strategies.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Here is what I believe to be the most crucial part of the report:
"We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either str ...[text shortened]... nurses and nurse aids specifically tailored toward the treatment of the disease.
Could it work?
That does not a "police state" make.
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@no1marauder saidIts more than that. People in my state are unable to go to work right now and earn a living. They are to begin enforcing closure of "all non essential business" by police force today.
It's inconvenient that I can't go to my usual bars and have a couple of beers and shoot some darts.
That does not a "police state" make.
@joe-shmo saidGenerally, a police state makes people go to work; it doesn't prevent them from doing so (with some exceptions: Jews in Nazi Germany were deprived of their economic livelihoods).
Its more than that. People in my state are unable to go to work right now and earn a living. They are to begin enforcement of closure of "all non essential business" by police force today.
Temporary measures to protect the public health are a common response to epidemics. Government officials are working on ways to compensate those economically disadvantaged by such measures.
The sky isn't falling.
@earl-of-trumps saideventually most will get the virus
Good points.
If we're all going to get the virus, why the bleep close the bars down? THat's just wrong!
the problem is not to overwhelm the health care system
you have to slow the spread
eventually you will be able to go to your bar and have a drink
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@no1marauder saidNo, but "no more than two people may meet" very much is.
It's inconvenient that I can't go to my usual bars and have a couple of beers and shoot some darts.
That does not a "police state" make.
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@no1marauder saidThe sky, no.
The sky isn't falling.
Sky Television, certainly not. They're thriving.
Society, though? Any social activity? Any club for the non-rich? Small businesses? Sports other than college football; theatre other than Andrew Lloyd Webber; mom'n'pop restaurants (oh, MacDross 'll be fine); any kind of informal meeting of familiar spirits? Yeah, dead as a doornail.
Which suits the libertarians and the comfortable rich just fine.
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@lemondrop saidWell, a bar. The bar that is allowed to survive. Enjoy your Victory Gin.
eventually you will be able to go to your bar and have a drink
@shallow-blue saidRepeating the paragraph before that in my post:
The sky, no.
Sky Television, certainly not. They're thriving.
Society, though? Any social activity? Any club for the non-rich? Small businesses? Sports other than college football; theatre other than Andrew Lloyd Webber; mom'n'pop restaurants (oh, MacDross 'll be fine); any kind of informal meeting of familiar spirits? Yeah, dead as a doornail.
Which suits the libertarians and the comfortable rich just fine.
"Temporary measures to protect the public health are a common response to epidemics. Government officials are working on ways to compensate those economically disadvantaged by such measures."
I loved V for Vendetta, but I really don't think we're headed there. I think an economic package compensating businesses and workers will be passed shortly. When the public health concerns are ameliorated, I expect businesses to reopen.
I believe a society absorbing these inconveniences is preferable to millions of deaths.
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@no1marauder saidBig businesses, yes. Small ones? Some of them.
I think an economic package compensating businesses and workers will be passed shortly. When the public health concerns are ameliorated, I expect businesses to reopen.
@no1marauder saidI loved V for Vendetta, but I really don't think we're headed there.
Repeating the paragraph before that in my post:
"Temporary measures to protect the public health are a common response to epidemics. Government officials are working on ways to compensate those economically disadvantaged by such measures."
I loved V for Vendetta, but I really don't think we're headed there. I think an economic package compensating businesses ...[text shortened]... o reopen.
I believe a society absorbing these inconveniences is preferable to millions of deaths.
I gathered as much from your reference to it when discussing the Palace of Westminster. I noted with mild amusement that the anarchist themes in combination with their target being a hypothetical British state would appeal to you.
Funnily enough, I was reading the graphic novel during a previous dispute with you about Northern Ireland in October 2018. I had asked the bookstore assistant for a recommendation, and I quickly realized upon opening the book and reading about its inspirations in the author's blurb (which was anti-Thatcherite in nature) that the bookstore assistant and I have different political opinions.
I am yet to see the movie.
@joe-shmo saidThat's an interesting question and difficult to get a handle on. A professional historian might be able to give you an estimate. A couple of things to note though. Massacres are not always prompted by rebellions, the Jews did not rebel against Nazi Germany as a group. Timur of the Mongols, better known in the West as Tamerlane managed to kill about 5% of the World population at that time, but most of that was conquest rather than suppression of rebellions. We need some clarity about what we mean by a Police State - would the Principiate in Ancient Rome count? Feudal European states could be pretty brutal places but I don't think it's meaningful to class them as Police States.
@DeepThought
Sorry, that trillions figure was not what I meant. I was going for billions, I accidentally jumped a few orders of magnitude.
Is there an estimate from the beginning of civilization for the number of casualties due to the rebellion of unfree peoples?