Predictions!!

I will say that unemployment will drop below 9% in the next three years. Unemployment usually follows economic growth, but with a time delay.

Originally posted by whodey
I get tired of hashing out views that my opponents will never agree with no matter how convincing I think my arguements may be, and vice versa. So instead, lets put our money where our mouths are to see who is right and who is clueless.

First lets start with the jobs bill that recently passed. I say it will do very little except create billions of dollar ...[text shortened]... you? Of course, if Obamacare passes, that will be next on the agenda to cast our predictions!!

regarding that recent jobs bill.

It was such a tiny thing that it won't have any real noticeable effect. Even the much larger stimulus that was passed at the beginning of 2009 wasn't going to do much more than stop the bleeding. As for the economy's future - we've been going through a very difficult transition from a manufacturing-based economy to an information and services based economy. This recent downturn is just accelerating this process, and I believe it's the real reason behind the Tea Party and similar movements.

Lots of jobs, especially in manfacturing are being replaced by machines or they're being shipped to China or India - and they're not coming back. The education system will need to make huge changes at all levels to adjust to the new reality. Lots of people will need to enter totally new careers, and many will still end up in jobs that pay a lot less than the ones they used to have.

I predict that the new technologies will allow the overall economy to grow at an average of 4%-yr over the next few years. The top 20% of earners will do extremely well, but unemployment will remain alarmingly high and lots of people will be angry. Immigrants will be a major scapegoat.

Originally posted by whodey
Now predictions regarding health care. Mine are that it will be over budget for the next 10 years. There is a shocker, eh? They will then begin to move to nationalize it much like they system in place in Canada and the UK. In addition, the quality of care will gradually deteriorate. I just can't wait to see the expression on peoples faces when they have ght you this peice of legislation. Do you really want them to "fix" it again down the road?

I agree that this healthcare bill won't do a whole lot in of itself to containing the soaring healthcare costs. It's main purpose was just to spread those costs more evenly so that fewer people will be thrown into utter financial ruin because their child needs $150,000 for heart surgery and no one will cover it.

But the political reality is that there was no way that Congress was ever going to confront the "healthcare cost" issue UNTIL the "universal coverage" issue was addressed. Any effort to deal with ANY other health issue was always going to be obscured by the mantra that "there are 45 million people without insurance".

Now that this issue has "been addressed", it clears the way for everyone to focus on other issues like

*tort reform
*raising medicare premiums for the affluent
*creating medical savings accounts
*encouraging providers to reduce the number of tests
*encouraging more people to see general practioners instead of specialists
*adding more competition to the insurance industry
*encouraging people to improve their eating and exercise habits
*making it easier for more people to enter the medical field
*reduce the number of infections that people can catch while in the hospital

a top priority would be to do an extensive study of all those other countries that have healthcare systems that are so much less costly than what we have in the US. Do we really have the best healthcare system in the world, or is it merely the most wasteful system? We don't need to directly imitate any of those systems, but surely all those other countries are doing some things that we could learn from.

Now that the 40-yr debate on universal insurance has finally reached a resolution of sorts, we can FINALLY move on to these other matters.

Originally posted by Melanerpes
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But the political reality is that there was no way that Congress was ever going to confront the "healthcare cost" issue UNTIL the "universal coverage" issue was addressed. Any effort to deal with ANY other health issue was always going to be obscured by the mantra that "there are 45 million people without insurance".

Like I said, Obamacare is doomed to failure and they know it. So why did they vote for it? It was to begin universal coverage, and at the same time, prevent people from being charged more for poor health conditions. You know, just like the CRA act prevented people from obtaining mortgages who really could not afford them. Now the stage is set for NHC and a single payer system. As for reversing the universal aspect of Obamacare, all entitlements are cast in stone and bronzed. There is no going back. In fact, it is arguable that once we initiated Medicare/Medicaid the road to NHC was inevitable just like Reagan had warned.

So lets take a look at the statist check list:

Take over of AIG: Check
Take over of GM: Check
Stimulus package: Check
Obamacare: Check
Cap and trade: Next
NHC: Soon
Limited government: Wait, how did that get on our list!!

Mind you we are not a socialist nation!! 😠

savings accounts, ANdOriginally posted by Melanerpes
I agree that this healthcare bill won't do a whole lot in of itself to containing the soaring healthcare costs. It's main purpose was just to spread those costs more evenly so that fewer people will be thrown into utter financial ruin because their child needs $150,000 for heart surgery and no one will cover it.

But the political r ...[text shortened]... finally reached a resolution of sorts, we can FINALLY move on to these other matters.

create medical savings accounts AND allow them to be carried over from year to year. You won't lose money at years end for not using it.
I had to have a referal to see a specialist, with my Cadillac plan. So I'm not sure where that came from. It was frustrating in a way, wait for the GP appointment, get a referral, go to a PT, who sends me to the Neuro appointment. Then wait for the Heart specialist,to look at a heart murmer all in all it took better than 2 months. Two months of hell thinking I had a brain tumor like the one that killed my Dad.
Exactly what tests should we exclude here? Doesn't that set up a law suit situation, and we're back to TORT? If the Government discouraged too many tests, and makes it tough on TORT, who evetually pays this price?
Encourage people to improve their eating and exercise habits.... throw in smoking? I might mention something here, about driving with a cell phone, prevent those rear end collisions.
Take away TV and computer based games for children. Get them baseball bats, footballs and mountain bikes. I don't see that happening anytime soon. I haven't seen a kid throwing a baseball with his dad in how many years now? Though there are basketball hoops in the driveways, I suspect the thrill off a slam dunk on TV is more challenging. So we have a big challenge there. Now with mongo sized TVs and HD. Pry them away, but you have to go too.
I agree with your solution of sorts

Originally posted by Hugh Glass
property tax? sales tax?
You're siting good then,
No wonder you want to spend my money for health care for all... You buzzard..
:-)

Is that like,, hey drinks on me?

Those darn welfare queens! I mean of course, paratroopers.

Originally posted by whodey
Like I said, Obamacare is doomed to failure and they know it. So why did they vote for it? It was to begin universal coverage, and at the same time, prevent people from being charged more for poor health conditions. You know, just like the CRA act prevented people from obtaining mortgages who really could not afford them. Now the stage is set for NHC and ...[text shortened]... overnment: Wait, how did that get on our list!!

Mind you we are not a socialist nation!! 😠

Like I said, Obamacare is doomed to failure and they know it. So why did they vote for it? It was to begin universal coverage, and at the same time, prevent people from being charged more for poor health conditions.

Yes - that is why they voted for it.

If all of the various anti-statists had all gotten together and offered an alternative approach, maybe that would've gotten passed instead. Maybe during those 12 years in which the GOP controlled everything, the anti-statists could organized all sorts of caffeine-laden movements to push the GOP really hard to produce positive ideas to address this issue.

But during those 12 years, very little was offered (except for an expansion to Medicare). If the conservatives and the anti-statists don't like the bill that just got passed, they have only themselves to blame. They had years and years to sit down with innovative thinkers and come up with an approach relying mainly on free markets or voluntary charity groups or whatever - some forward-thinking approach that would've allowed everyone to get access to affordable healthcare without having to go with the old Nixon plan.

But they didn't do this. They sat on their hands. They assumed that it would be enough to whine incessantly about the evils of socialism. That approach worked in 1994. It gave them 12 years. They wasted it. Now that old Nixon plan has finally been passed. Don't blame the liberals or the Democrats. Don't even blame the GOP. Blame the anti-statists.

Now the legislation doesn't actually take effect until 2014, so there's still time to come up with an real alternative that consists of something besides Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck calling people Communists.

Originally posted by AThousandYoung
Those darn welfare queens! I mean of course, paratroopers.

No I was kidding. I do not begrudge any servicemen, or woman who hangs it out for this country. They are why I sleep at night.
We all still have much in common. We are Americans, and have fought over issues before, and we will again... lets just make the best of it, get our people working again.

Originally posted by Hugh Glass
No I was kidding. I do not begrudge any servicemen, or woman who hangs it out for this country. They are why I sleep at night.
We all still have much in common. We are Americans, and have fought over issues before, and we will again... lets just make the best of it, get our people working again.

All right! That's what I like to see. Agreed!

Originally posted by whodey
Like I said, Obamacare is doomed to failure and they know it. So why did they vote for it? It was to begin universal coverage, and at the same time, prevent people from being charged more for poor health conditions. You know, just like the CRA act prevented people from obtaining mortgages who really could not afford them. Now the stage is set for NHC and ...[text shortened]... overnment: Wait, how did that get on our list!!

Mind you we are not a socialist nation!! 😠

Reagan firing air traffic controllers - check

Unemployment will hover near the same levels barring major interferance from monetary or fiscal stimulus or external shocks or inventions drastically changing productivity, I'd say for the rest of the next 2 quarters at least, maybe longer.

Originally posted by Melanerpes

If all of the various anti-statists had all gotten together and offered an alternative approach, maybe that would've gotten passed instead. Maybe during those 12 years in which the GOP controlled everything, the anti-statists could organized all sorts of caffeine-laden movements to push the GOP really hard to produce positive ideas to address this issue.

Yes and no. Assuming I am correct in thinking that entitlements are slowly destroying, not only the US economy, but the economies now struggling around the globe, what politician is going to come along and say they wish to take these "free" goodies away from the populace? Once an entitlement is given it is cast in stone and bronzed. Therefore, once an unsustainable program like Medicare/Medicaid began the fix was in and our future decided for us. Perhaps you could argue that conservatives should have thwarted the original entitlement policies, however, I don't think they had the forsight to realize the road it would take us that we clearly see today. Then again, even if they did have the forsight and fought them, they may have well lost the public opinion anyway. It reminds me of what Osama Bin Laden said once. He was asked about all the failed terrorist attempts by his organization in the past and he replied, "But I don't care if I fail a million times, all I have to do is succeed once."

BTW: Any of you left wingers who say that Medicare/Medicaid was sustainable, try telling that to Obama who argued that it was going bust in 7 years and that we needed to take action now to prevent it from happening.