On March 16, a 20-page report from Neil Ferguson's team at Imperial College London quickly gathered enormous attention by producing enormous death estimates.
https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19
If the Imperial College projects 2.2 million people would have died then it must be true.
We should all give credit where credit is due, thank you President Trump.
@eladar saidBecause the states and CDC experts dragged him kicking and screaming to do part of the right thing much too late is hardly cause for apotheosis.
On March 16, a 20-page report from Neil Ferguson's team at Imperial College London quickly gathered enormous attention by producing enormous death estimates.
https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19
If the Imperial College projects 2.2 million people would have died then it must be true.
We should all give credit where credit is due, thank you President Trump.
But I'll grant that the Trump administration has done some good things in fighting COVID.
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22 Apr 20
@eladar saidYeah, the model published in that paper is fundamentally wrong on many of its predictions. If they were even close to accurate any mitigation strategy should have should have fell underneath the "Unmitigated Deaths per Day per 100000 Curve" and the any unmitigated peak should have been pushed to the right ( later in time). We are current very far above that prediction and the peak is shifted substantially to the left ( earlier in time) of June.
On March 16, a 20-page report from Neil Ferguson's team at Imperial College London quickly gathered enormous attention by producing enormous death estimates.
https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19
If the Imperial College projects 2.2 million people would have died then it must be true.
We should all give credit where credit is due, thank you President Trump.
22 Apr 20
@sh76 saidYou mean like shutting down travel from Europe and Asia?
Because the states and CDC experts dragged him kicking and screaming to do part of the right thing much too late is hardly cause for apotheosis.
But I'll grant that the Trump administration has done some good things in fighting COVID.
But yeah, that 2.2 milliin model scared Trump into hysteria shut down.
22 Apr 20
@eladar saidThe China travel ban was fine, though late.
You mean like shutting down travel from Europe and Asia?
But yeah, that 2.2 milliin model scared Trump into hysteria shut down.
The Europe travel ban probably did nothing. By then, COVID had already been spreading like wildfire in the US for weeks. The horse was already out of the barn.
22 Apr 20
@sh76 saidEspecially with New York officials telling people to use subways and attend social events.
The China travel ban was fine, though late.
The Europe travel ban probably did nothing. By then, COVID had already been spreading like wildfire in the US for weeks. The horse was already out of the barn.
@joe-shmo saidFunny how models can be wrong, but suddenly forgotten once their purpose has been achieved.
Yeah, the model published in that paper is fundamentally wrong on many of its predictions. If they were even close to accurate any mitigation strategy should have should have fell underneath the "Unmitigated Deaths per Day per 100000 Curve" and the any unmitigated peak should have been pushed to the right ( later in time). We are current very far above that prediction and the peak is shifted substantially to the left ( earlier in time) of June.
Shav knew nothing of this prediction.
The funny thing is that we are told to believe these people even after their models are demonstrated to be wrong. Why believe them? Because they are the experts.
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22 Apr 20
@eladar saidI'm not quite as jaded about it. They obviously rushed an analysis, with limited data. I still believe that is was probably best to err to the side of caution initially when everyone knew so little. We experienced the same kind of errors in our science forum models too. But I do believe in calling a spade a spade. If it feels like crap, smells like crap, and tastes like crap...its probably crap. And why it was crap should be openly discussed.
Funny how models can be wrong, but suddenly forgotten once their purpose has been achieved.
Shav knew nothing of this prediction.
The funny thing is that we are told to believe these people even after their models are demonstrated to be wrong. Why believe them? Because they are the experts.
