Debates
27 Jul 12
Here's a fun hypothetical for you:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/26/politics/electoral-college-tie/index.html
The likelihood that President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will each net 269 electoral votes in November, instead of the 270 needed to win, is actually not so farfetched -- and for close observers of the Electoral College system, a tie would set off a wave of constitutional and political mayhem that would make the 2000 Florida recount seem like a tidy affair.
...
If the electors behave in December and affirm an Election Night split decision, the action would move on to the House of Representatives.
A joint session of the newly elected Congress would be convened to open and count electoral votes. A House leadership aide told CNN this would happen on Monday, January 7.
If no candidate reaches a majority of 270 votes, a contingent election immediately ensues.
In the House, each state's delegation casts a single vote for president.
This scenario all but guarantees a victory for Romney. Republicans hold a majority in 33 state delegations to 16 delegations for the Democrats.
Barring a miraculous Democratic wave up and down the ballot this November, the axis of power is unlikely to shift enough to hand Obama's party control of a majority of state delegations.
And there's another hiccup: The vice president is elected separately by the U.S. Senate, which may still be controlled by Democrats next year.
Each senator has a single vote, and the next vice president would be chosen by a simple majority vote.
A Romney-Biden administration? No one's betting on it. But it could happen.
I personally would put the chances of this happening at between 0.01 and 0.1.
Anyone still think that a national popular vote is a bad idea?
I'm betting that in the wake of that scenario, there'd be a massive new wave of support.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
Specifically, options 1 and 2 on the CNN link look most realistic, in my opinion. (Not likely, but definitely still possible.)
Option 1 battleground breakdown: Obama wins NV, CO, one vote from NE, IA, MI, and PA. Romney wins MO, OH, FL, VA, NC, and NH.
Option 2 battleground breakdown: same as above, except that Romney wins NV, all of NE, and IA. Obama, in turn, wins VA.