13 May 10
Chastised for being over-valued a few months ago and chastised now for its recent depreciation, it seems the Euro cannot win. Despite the relentless doom-saying of the anglophone press and American intelligentsia, the Euro is alive and well.
Yet another country is about to join in a few months and European countries keep to their path of cooperation. The caravan rolls on.
Welcome Estonia!
13 May 10
Well, it still requires the approval of other EU members, which in the current economic and political climate is not straightforward. Nevertheless, the country is tiny and appears to have healthy public finances as well as strong long-term growth prospects, so I see no objection personally.
13 May 10
Originally posted by KazetNagorraWhat do they have to lose? It's win-win for EU members, given their public finances. Only an unlikely surge of populism can stop them from joining in 201, but even so I think it will at most delay it by one year.
Well, it still requires the approval of other EU members, which in the current economic and political climate is not straightforward. Nevertheless, the country is tiny and appears to have healthy public finances as well as strong long-term growth prospects, so I see no objection personally.
13 May 10
1 edit
Originally posted by PalynkaWell, the expansion of the EU and Euro is a sensitive political issue in traditional EU member states. Estonia's joining of the Eurozone could be delayed by opportunistic politicians.
What do they have to lose? It's win-win for EU members, given their public finances. Only an unlikely surge of populism can stop them from joining in 201, but even so I think it will at most delay it by one year.
13 May 10
2 edits
In Sweden we have an mixed feeling about the Euro. Do we want to change our currency or do we want to keep our Swedish Krona?
Some says that: Look now how much problems the Euro has with the Greek problems.
Other says that: When in trouble, then the Euro can save the national economy.
Estonia want to get in when they're in problem. Iceland want to get into EU in their troubled times, and the next step will be to convert to Euro.
Norway has no problems to be outside both EU and Euro. Sweden is inside EU, but outside Euro. Do we want to enter the Euro before we get problems, or do we wait until then?
What works well in the states of America (their Euro is Dollars), why wouldn't that work equally well in Europe? The problems with Euro, isn't that just initial problems, as every new monetary systems have?
13 May 10
Originally posted by KazetNagorraLike I said, only populism can stop it from joining in 2011 and I doubt they can delay it more than 1 year.
Well, the expansion of the EU and Euro is a sensitive political issue in traditional EU member states. Estonia's joining of the Eurozone could be delayed by opportunistic politicians.
13 May 10
Originally posted by PalynkaCan the US join? After all, who is going to bail them out if they don't join? 😛
Chastised for being over-valued a few months ago and chastised now for its recent depreciation, it seems the Euro cannot win. Despite the relentless doom-saying of the anglophone press and American intelligentsia, the Euro is alive and well.
Yet another country is about to join in a few months and European countries keep to their path of cooperation. The caravan rolls on.
Welcome Estonia!
13 May 10
1 edit
Originally posted by FabianFnasIf the Netherlands were to have held a referendum on the introduction of the Euro, it would most likely have been voted down, like it was in Sweden (even now, some politicians still advocate returning to the guilder!). People don't like change, and most people are too ignorant to realize the advantages.
In Sweden we have an mixed feeling about the Euro. Do we want to change our currency or do we want to keep our Swedish Krona?
Some says that: Look now how much problems the Euro has with the Greek problems.
Other says that: When in trouble, then the Euro can save the national economy.
Estonia want to get in when they're in problem. Iceland want to The problems with Euro, isn't that just initial problems, as every new monetary systems have?
13 May 10
Originally posted by KazetNagorraWhat do you know of the 'advantages', or for that matter the disadvantages in this case? After all you live upsidedown.
If the Netherlands were to have held a referendum on the introduction of the Euro, it would most likely have been voted down, like it was in Sweden (even now, some politicians still advocate returning to the guilder!). People don't like change, and most people are too ignorant to realize the advantages.
13 May 10
2 edits
Originally posted by KazetNagorraThe referendum we had in Sweden 2003 gave a 'no' (46% 'yes', 52% 'no'😉. The politicians thought it would be a 'yes', but they were wrong. If they'knew the result in advance, they would turn Krona into Euro without a referendum. Sooner or later we will have another referendum when the politicians are more certain of the positive outcome.
If the Netherlands were to have held a referendum on the introduction of the Euro, it would most likely have been voted down, like it was in Sweden (even now, some politicians still advocate returning to the guilder!). People don't like change, and most people are too ignorant to realize the advantages.
15 May 10
1 edit
Originally posted by whodeyAfter all, who is going to bail them out if they don't join?
Can the US join? After all, who is going to bail them out if they don't join? 😛
China.
"Mr. Johnson, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, estimated that China owns about $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities"
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/02/chinas-debt-to-us-treasury-more-than-indicated/
Then what are th US gonna do when the Beijing Bailiffs come knocking?
15 May 10
Originally posted by wolfgang59A better question is, "Do the Chinese want anything? What is their top priority? What are their long-term goals?"
[b]After all, who is going to bail them out if they don't join?
China.
"Mr. Johnson, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, estimated that China owns about $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities"
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/02/chinas-debt-to-us-treasury-more-than-indicated/
Then what are th US gonna do when the Beijing Bailiffs come knocking?[/b]
15 May 10
Originally posted by KazetNagorraThe economics of this could be explored a bit. I may be wrong but here is what I think I think. The problem is partly that the Chinese should have a stronger currency and not one that is held back artificially by alignment with the dollar. This keeps their exports cheap (unfair competition) and their imports dear (unfair competition). They do not want to encourage greater domestic consumption and it's not clear if they can. Chinese people need to save because they have a very unclear future and little assurance of social care. The US is in debt owing to excessive consumption and refusal to pay the taxes required to balance its books. However, it is hardly going to export its way out of that trap in a world where its jobs are being exported (many to China) instead of its manufactured goods. The whole package is unsustainable.
Considering the Chinese insist on coupling their currency to the USD, I guess they are fine with the way things are now.
16 May 10
Originally posted by finneganThe growing Chinese middle class are importing more and more luxury goods from abroad. Last month (or the month before, don't remember exactly) China already had a trade deficit (!). My guess is they will slowly allow their currency to appreciate with respect to the USD.
The economics of this could be explored a bit. I may be wrong but here is what I think I think. The problem is partly that the Chinese should have a stronger currency and not one that is held back artificially by alignment with the dollar. This keeps their exports cheap (unfair competition) and their imports dear (unfair competition). They do not want to en ...[text shortened]... exported (many to China) instead of its manufactured goods. The whole package is unsustainable.